Modern economic theory gives an important role to expectations as an influence on outcomes. This paper reviews evidence on how well measures of expectations conform to outcomes. It confirms earlier results that measures taken from financial markets perform poorly as predictors of outcomes. Looking at the individual responses to the Confederation of British Industry’s Industrial Trends Survey, it does find, however, that there are significant correlations between expected and realised outcomes of wages, prices, costs orders and employment. It also finds some evidence that actual prices reflect expected future prices, but with a coefficient much lower than economic theory predicts. There is evidence that forecast errors are explained by past forecasts, as well as revisions to the economic outlook, casting doubt on the idea that firms’ forecasts make the best use of the information available at the time. The paper concludes by observing that, while expectations are undoubtedly important, economists need to build on work looking at how they are derived instead of simply assuming they are rational.

Economists understand that a fit for purpose policy regime requires a reliable general equilibrium model of the system in question and a well specified description of the objectives that the policymaker is trying to pursue. The current financial stability regime has neither and without these critical foundations the regime is fundamentally fragile and incomplete. There is no anchor on the conduct of policy, an absence in genuine accountability and, as a result, reputational risks for policy institutions.

This paper examines the implications for regional policy of new research on the role played by a failure in the ‘capacity to aspire’ [Appadurai, A. (2004), ‘The capacity to aspire’, in Rao, V. and Walton, M. (eds), Culture and Public Action, Washington, DC: World Bank.] in perpetuating disadvantage traps. After a brief review of the magnitude of the challenge that regional policy needs to confront, it provides a summary of the theoretical and empirical literature on poverty and aspirations failure (and the associated loss of agency, beliefs and self-efficacy). The key implication for the design of an inclusive regional policy is that it needs to address simultaneously the sources of external constraints (such as the availability of resources or adequate infrastructure) and mitigate the aspirations failure inherently linked to persistent disadvantage.

We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries. The Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in most other OECD countries it identifies the start after that identified by two successive falls in quarterly GDP. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. We show a 10-point rise in the series compared to its previous 12 month low predicted the onset of the Great Recession in both the United States and Europe.

The contemporary relevance of Adam Smith is evidenced by continued reference to his name. Computational analysis identifies over 700 mentions of Smith and his two famous works—The Theory of Moral Sentiments and The Wealth of Nations—in post-World War 1 House of Commons debates. We find some parliamentarians appreciate Smith’s complex ideas, but most references are ‘ornamental’. Charting Smith’s use over the decades, this paper builds on Kirk Willis’ idea that studying parliamentary debates are an ideal way to understand how, at best, policy ideas, germinate and disseminate over time, or, at worst, how ‘complex ideas became slogans’.

The economy is slowing as expected. NIESR's estimate of monthly GDP suggests that the rate of economic growth slowed from 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year to 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year (figure 1), the weakest rate of growth since the second quarter of 2001. Recent data on the state of the economy is mixed. Retail sales volume growth surged to 1.8 per cent per quarter in the three months to May 2008, up from a rate of growth of 1.2 per cent in the preceding three months. The index of production, however, recorded a fall of 0.5 per cent in the three months to May 2008. The index of services suggests services output growth has continued to be relatively subdued. The quarterly rate of growth in the three months to April was 0.3 per cent, half the rate of growth in the final quarter of 2007. While the retail sales data are not yet consistent with a consumer led slowdown, the decline of hotel and restaurant output in the three months to April suggests that other components of consumer spending are slowing.

This paper discusses the role of forecasts in the control of inflation. Much has been made of variations on the so-called Taylor rule for inflation control. Forward-looking Taylor rules are reconciled with optimal control using a class of rules described as error-correcting Taylor rules.

A few years ago, comparisons were being made between the recession of the early 1980s in Britain and that of 50 years earlier, in the 1930s. The latter was followed by a recovery in output which lasted over five years. A new recession appeared in 1938, but it was swiftly overtaken by growing rearmament and the outbreak of war. On this occasion, the recovery of output has already run for six years and, though there may well be more to come, we now have sufficient figures to make a worthwhile comparison of recession and recovery in the two periods. It is the strong similarity in the strength and depth of the two recessions which makes the comparison of the subsequent recoveries a useful measure of the success of recent economic performance. In terms of annual data 1929 and 1979 were the peaks of the preceding expansion, and we take advantage of the coincidence of the last digit. Those variables expressed in index number form are taken as 100 in the years 1925 and 1975, and we characterise the periods 1925-37 and 1975-87 as Then and Now. Data for Then are taken mainly from Feinstein (1972) and for Now from Economic Trends and other current official sources.

In view of the abundant resources of coal in the United Kingdom, it was natural that at the time immediately following the first oil shock in 1973 certain hopes were pinned on coal: that coal usage would recover enabling the country to reduce its high reliance on oil. With the benefit of hindsight it is clear by now that whilst the importance of oil in our energy supplies has indeed been reduced, it was not primarily due to any resurgence of the demand for coal. The production and consumption of coal have continued to decline.