We study the concept of multivariate dispersion order, defined as the existence of an expansion function that maps a random vector to another one, for multivariate distributions with the same dependence structure. As a particular case, we can order the multivariate t-distribution family in dispersion sense. Finally, we use these results in the problem of detection and characterization of influential observations in regression analysis. This problem can often be used to compare two multivariate t-distributions.

The concept of generalized order statistics was introduced as a unified approach to a variety of models of ordered random variables. The purpose of this article is to investigate the conditions on the parameters that enable one to establish several stochastic comparisons of general p-spacings for a subclass of generalized order statistics in the likelihood ratio and the hazard rate orders. Preservation properties of the logconvexity and logconcavity of p-spacings are also given.

Consider the random Dirichlet partition of the interval into n fragments at temperature θ > 0. Explicit results on the law of its size-biased permutation are first supplied. Using these, new results on the comparative search cost distributions from Dirichlet partition and from its size-biased permutation are obtained.

We compare and test statistical estimates of failure propagation in data from versions of a probabilistic model of loading-dependent cascading failure and a power system blackout model of cascading transmission line overloads. The comparisons suggest mechanisms affecting failure propagation and are an initial step toward monitoring failure propagation from practical system data. Approximations to the probabilistic model describe the forms of probability distribution of cascade sizes.

In this article, we give several results on (multivariate and univariate) stochastic comparisons of generalized order statistics. We give conditions on the underlying distributions and the parameters on which the generalized order statistics are based, to obtain stochastic comparisons in the stochastic, dispersive, hazard rate, and likelihood ratio orders. Our results generalize some recent results for order statistics, record values, and generalized order statistics and provide some new results for other models such as k-record values and order statistics under multivariate imperfect repair.

New integral inequality characterizations of the NBUC and NBU(2) classes of lifetime distributions are given. These results are then used to prove preservation under mixture results for the NBUC and NBU(2) classes.

We propose the use of the cluster distribution, derived from a negative binomial probability model, to estimate the probability of high-order events in terms of number of lines outaged within a short time, useful in long-term planning and also in short-term operational defense to such events. We use this model to fit statistical data gathered for a 30-year period for North America. The model is compared to the commonly used Poisson model and the power-law model. Results indicate that the Poisson model underestimates the probability of higher-order events, whereas the power-law model overestimates it. We use the strict chi-square fitness test to compare the fitness of these three models and find that the cluster model is superior to the other two models for the data used in the study.

The purpose of this article is to study several preservation properties of the mean inactivity time order under the reliability operations of convolution, mixture, and shock models. In that context, the increasing mean inactivity time class of lifetime distributions is characterized by means of right spread order and increasing convex order. Some applications in reliability theory are described. Finally, a new test of such a class is discussed.

This paper addresses computer simulation of cascading failures in electric power systems. The paper analyzes the convergence rates of estimator variance in importance sampling and in random search strategies. A uniform search strategy based on the Metropolis algorithm is proposed.

For a compound process with exponential jumps at renewal times, we determine, in closed form, the density of the first time an upper linear boundary is crossed. It is shown how simple formulas for the Laplace transform and the first two moments can be directly derived from this density.

In this article, we obtain, in a unified way, a closed-form analytic expression, in terms of roots of the so-called characteristic equation of the stationary waiting-time distribution for the GIX/R/1 queue, where R denotes the class of distributions whose Laplace–Stieltjes transforms are rational functions (ratios of a polynomial of degree at most n to a polynomial of degree n). The analysis is not restricted to generalized distributions with phases such as Coxian-n (Cn) but also covers nonphase-type distributions such as deterministic (D). In the latter case, we get approximate results. Numerical results are presented only for (1) the first two moments of waiting time and (2) the probability that waiting time is zero. It is expected that the results obtained from the present study should prove to be useful not only for practitioners but also for queuing theorists who would like to test the accuracies of inequalities, bounds, or approximations.

It is known that Cournot game theory has been one of the theoretical approaches used more often to model electricity market behavior. Nevertheless, this approach is highly influenced by the residual demand curves of the market agents, which are usually not precisely known. This imperfect information has normally been studied with probability theory, but possibility theory might sometimes be more helpful in modeling not only uncertainty but also imprecision and vagueness. In this paper, two dual approaches are proposed to compute a robust Cournot equilibrium, when the residual demand uncertainty is modeled with possibility distributions. Additionally, it is shown that these two approaches can be combined into a bicriteria programming model, which can be solved with an iterative algorithm. Some interesting results for a real-size electricity system show the robustness of the proposed methodology.

In the Note published last year [1], bounds and monotonicity of shot-noise and max-shot-noise processes driven by spatial stationary Cox point processes are discussed in terms of some stochastic order. Although all the statements concerning the shot-noise processes remain valid, those concerning the max-shot-noise processes have to be corrected.

It is widely accepted that medium-term generation planning can be advantageously modeled through market equilibrium representation. There exist several methods to define and solve this kind of equilibrium in a deterministic way. Medium-term planning is strongly affected by uncertainty in market and system conditions; thus, extensions of these models are commonly required. The main variables that should be considered as subject to uncertainty include hydro conditions, demand, generating units' failures, and fuel prices. This paper presents a model to represent a medium-term operation of the electrical market that introduces this uncertainty in the formulation in a natural and practical way. Utilities are explicitly considered to be maximizing their expected profits, and biddings are represented by means of a conjectural variation. Market equilibrium conditions are introduced by means of the optimality conditions of a problem, which has a structure that strongly resembles classical optimization of hydrothermal coordination. A tree-based representation to include stochastic variables and a model based on it are introduced. This approach to market representation provides three main advantages: Robust decisions are obtained; technical constraints are included in the problem in a natural way, additionally obtaining dual information; and large-size problems representing real systems in detail can be addressed.