A generalization of Markov point processes is introduced in which interactions occur between connected components of the point pattern. A version of the Hammersley-Clifford characterization theorem is proved which states that a point process is a Markov interacting component process if and only if its density function is a product of interaction terms associated with cliques of connected components. Integrability and superpositional properties of the processes are shown and a pairwise interaction example is used for detailed exploration.

Consider the following birth-growth model in ℝ. Seeds are born randomly according to an inhomogeneous space-time Poisson process. A newly formed point immediately initiates a bi-directional coverage by sending out a growing branch. Each frontier of a branch moves at a constant speed until it meets an opposing one. New seeds continue to form on the uncovered parts on the line. We are interested in the time until a bounded interval is completely covered. The exact and limiting distributions as the length of interval tends to infinity are obtained for this completion time by considering a related Markov process. Moreover, some strong limit results are also established.

Useful approximations have been developed along the years to predict the precision of systematic sampling for measurable functions of a bounded support in ℝd. Recently, the theory of systematic sampling on ℝ has received a thrust. In geometric sampling, design based unbiased estimators exist, however, which imply systematic sampling on the circle (𝕊1) and the semicircle (ℍ1); the planimeter estimator of an area, or the Buffon-Steinhaus estimator of curve length in the plane constitute popular examples. Over the last two decades, many other estimators of geometric measures have been obtained which imply systematic sampling also on the sphere (𝕊2). In this paper we adapt the theory available for non-periodic functions of bounded support on ℝ to periodic functions, and thereby to 𝕊1 and ℍ1, and we obtain new estimators of the corresponding variance approximations. Further we consider - we believe for the first time - the problem of predicting the precision of systematic sampling in 𝕊2. The paper starts with a historical perspective, and ends with suggestions for further research.

We study Poisson-Voronoi tessellations in three-dimensional hyperbolic spaces, and give explicit expressions for mean surface area, mean perimeter length, and mean number of vertices of their cells. Furthermore we compare these mean characteristics with those for Poisson-Voronoi tessellations in three-dimensional Euclidean spaces. It is shown that, as the absolute value of the curvature of hyperbolic spaces increases from zero to infinity, these mean characteristics increase monotonically from those for the Euclidean case to infinity.

In [8], Le showed that procrustean mean shapes of samples are consistent estimates of Fréchet means for a class of probability measures in Kendall's shape spaces. In this paper, we investigate the analogous case in Bookstein's shape space for labelled triangles and propose an estimator that is easy to compute and is a consistent estimate of the Fréchet mean, with respect to sinh(δ/√2), of any probability measure for which such a mean exists. Furthermore, for a certain class of probability measures, this estimate also tends almost surely to the Fréchet mean calculated with respect to the Riemannian distance δ.

For several common parent laws, the number of vertices of a sample convex hull follows a kind of law of large numbers. We exhibit an example of a parent law which contradicts a general conjecture about this matter.

In the statistical analysis of random sets, it is useful to have simple statistics that can be used to describe the realizations of these sets. The cumulants and several other standardized moments such as the correlation and second cumulant can be used for this purpose, but their estimators can be excessively variable if the most straightforward estimation strategy is used. Through exploitation of similarities between this estimation problem and a similar one for a point process statistic, two modifications are proposed. Analytical results concerning the effects of these modifications are found through use of a specialized asymptotic regime. Simulation results establish that the modifications are highly effective at reducing estimator standard deviations for Boolean models. The results suggest that the reductions in variance result from a balanced use of information in the estimation of the first and second moments, through eliminating the use of observations that are not used in second moment estimation.

We study the variance-to-mean ratio of the distributions of parasites among hosts for some models of parasite infection, using the cohort approach. We consider a model with density dependence in parasite mortality, and two different formulations of disease induced host mortality. We show that the distributions of parasites, conditional on host survival, converge to quasi-stationary distributions as host age increases. When there is density dependence in parasite mortality, the limiting variance-to-mean ratio is less than 1 (an ‘under-dispersed’ distribution). In contrast, the two modes of disease induced host mortality show that either over- or underdispersed distributions may result.

We formulate and verify an almost-sure lattice renewal theorem for branching random walks, whose non-lattice analogue is originally due to Nerman. We also identify the limit in these renewal theorems (both lattice and non-lattice) as the limit of Kingman's well-known martingale multiplied by a deterministic factor.

Two features are desired in designing a sequential clinical trial: randomness and balance. The former makes the ground for valid statistical inferences and the latter strengthens efficiency in inference procedures. Unfortunately randomness and balance can be in conflict with one another, and clinicians may be caught between the need for both of them. This paper raises an interesting question: can one design consistently achieve more balance than another when both designs own the same randomness? The Ehrenfest urn design is presented to allocate two treatments under a sequential clinical trial, and its balance and randomness properties are investigated. The design is compared with the biased coin design with imbalance tolerance.

Classic works of Karlin and McGregor and Jones and Magnus have established a general correspondence between continuous-time birth-and-death processes and continued fractions of the Stieltjes-Jacobi type together with their associated orthogonal polynomials. This fundamental correspondence is revisited here in the light of the basic relation between weighted lattice paths and continued fractions otherwise known from combinatorial theory. Given that sample paths of the embedded Markov chain of a birth-and-death process are lattice paths, Laplace transforms of a number of transient characteristics can be obtained systematically in terms of a fundamental continued fraction and its family of convergent polynomials. Applications include the analysis of evolutions in a strip, upcrossing and downcrossing times under flooring and ceiling conditions, as well as time, area, or number of transitions while a geometric condition is satisfied.

Certain types of Markov jump processes x(t) with continuous state space and one or more absorbing states are studied. Cases where the transition rate in state x is of the form λ(x) = |x|δ in a neighbourhood of the origin in ℝd are considered, in particular. This type of problem arises from quantum physics in the study of laser cooling of atoms, and the present paper connects to recent work in the physics literature. The main question addressed is that of the asymptotic behaviour of x(t) near the origin for large t. The study involves solution of a renewal equation problem in continuous state space.

This paper studies a revenue management problem in which a finite number of substitutable commodities are sold to two different market segments at respective prices. It is required that a certain number of commodities are reserved for the high-price segment to ensure a minimum service level. The two segments are served concurrently at the beginning of the season. To improve revenues, management may choose to close the low-price segment at a time when the chance of selling all items at the high price is promising. The difficulty is determining when such a decision should be made. We derive the exact solution in closed form using the theory of optimal stopping time. We show that the optimal decision is made in reference to a sequence of thresholds in time. These time thresholds take both remaining sales season and inventory into account and exhibit a useful monotone property.

This paper investigates the dynamics of a synchronization node in isolation, and of networks of service and synchronization nodes. A synchronization node consists of M infinite capacity buffers, where tokens arriving on M distinct random input flows are stored (there is one buffer for each flow). Tokens are held in the buffers until one is available from each flow. When this occurs, a token is drawn from each buffer to form a group-token, which is instantaneously released as a synchronized departure. Under independent Poisson inputs, the output of a synchronization node is shown to converge weakly (and in certain cases strongly) to a Poisson process with rate equal to the minimum rate of the input flows. Hence synchronization preserves the Poisson property, as do superposition, Bernoulli sampling and M/M/1 queueing operations. We then consider networks of synchronization and exponential server nodes with Bernoulli routeing and exogenous Poisson arrivals, extending the standard Jackson network model to include synchronization nodes. It is shown that if the synchronization skeleton of the network is acyclic (i.e. no token visits any synchronization node twice although it may visit a service node repeatedly), then the distribution of the joint queue-length process of only the service nodes is product form (under standard stability conditions) and easily computable. Moreover, the network output flows converge weakly to Poisson processes. Finally, certain results for networks with finite capacity buffers are presented, and the limiting behavior of such networks as the buffer capacities become large is studied.

In this paper we investigate the application of perfect simulation, in particular Coupling from the Past (CFTP), to the simulation of random point processes. We give a general formulation of the method of dominated CFTP and apply it to the problem of perfect simulation of general locally stable point processes as equilibrium distributions of spatial birth-and-death processes. We then investigate discrete-time Metropolis-Hastings samplers for point processes, and show how a variant which samples systematically from cells can be converted into a perfect version. An application is given to the Strauss point process.

Let ε be a (single or composite) pattern defined over a sequence of Bernoulli trials. This article presents a unified approach for the study of the joint distribution of the number Sn of successes (and Fn of failures) and the number Xn of occurrences of ε in a fixed number of trials as well as the joint distribution of the waiting time Tr till the rth occurrence of the pattern and the number STr of successes (and FTr of failures) observed at that time. General formulae are developed for the joint probability mass functions and generating functions of (Xn,Sn), (Tr,STr) (and (Xn,Sn,Fn),(Tr,STr,FTr)) when Xn belongs to the family of Markov chain imbeddable variables of binomial type. Specializing to certain success runs, scans and pattern problems several well-known results are delivered as special cases of the general theory along with some new results that have not appeared in the statistical literature before.

When the premium rate is a positive absolute constant throughout the time period of observation and the safety loading of the insurance business is positive, a classical result of collective risk theory claims that probabilities of ultimate ruin ψ(u) and of ruin within finite time ψ(t,u) decrease as eϰu with a constant ϰ>0, as the initial risk reserve u increases. This paper establishes uniform approximations to ψ(t,u) with slower rates of decrease when the premium rate depends on u in such a way that the safety loading decreases to zero as u→∞.