This paper studies expectation formation of professional forecasters in the context of the Phillips curve. We assess whether professionals form their expectations regarding inflation and unemployment consistent with the Phillips curve based on individual forecast data taken from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We consider expectations over different horizons and do not restrict the analysis to point forecasts but we also take the information inherent in density forecasts into account. We explicitly consider the role of anchoring of inflation expectations as potential source of nonlinearity, and we also assess whether the Phillips curve relation translates to a link between uncertainty regarding inflation and unemployment. Our findings show that professionals tend to build their expectations in line with the Phillips curve but this is only observed for expectations made for shorter horizons. For longer horizons, the Phillips curve connection is much weaker. This relationship also depends on the degree of anchoring and results in a connection between uncertainty regarding future inflation and unemployment.

An abbreviated history of marriage helps motivate the question of whether ancient Roman marriage and contemporary love marriage could qualify as stages of the same (token) institution despite carrying significantly different functions, deontological powers, and constitutive rules. Having raised the question of institutional identity over time, I proceed to answer the question by appealing to Kurt Lewin's notion of genidentity. Lewin intends the notion of genidentity to track the spatiotemporal unfolding of different physical and biological processes, such as ontogenesis. I extend the notion of genidentity to the institutional sphere by identifying two ‘re-anchoring mechanisms’ that would describe the conditions under which institutions with different characteristics could nevertheless qualify as the same institution across time. First, formal institutions can be re-anchored by way of a self-amending secondary rule. Second, informal institutions can be re-anchored by leveraging the inherent indeterminacy of the exemplars that indexically define them. I then argue ancient Roman marriage and contemporary love marriage are genidentical in virtue of the actions of a (mostly) informal re-anchoring mechanism.

Much like other social and nonsocial evaluations, estimates of numerical quantities are susceptible to comparative influences. However, numerical representations can take either a nonsymbolic (e.g., a grouping of dots) or a symbolic numerical form (e.g., Hindu–Arabic numerals), which each produce comparative biases in opposite directions. The current work takes a fine-grained curve fitting approach across a wide range of values to the investigation of their potential nonlinear influence in the context of a numerical estimation task. A series of 3 experiments (N = 1,613) showed how nonsymbolic standards produce linear contrastive patterns (Study 1), whereas symbolic numerical anchors show a cubic assimilative effect with a leveling off in strength for more extreme standards (Study 2). Sequential contrast from the previous patterns and assimilation to the previous response were found to be present and additive in the presence of both representations but were larger in absence of the symbolic numerical anchors (Study 3).

In two experiments, we explored the possible drawbacks of applying the anchoring tactic in a negotiation context. In Study 1, buyers who used the anchoring tactic made higher profits, but their counterparts thought their own results were worse than expected and thus were less willing to engage in future negotiations with them. Study 2 showed that using the anchoring tactic in a market decreased accumulated profits by increasing the rate of impasses and prolonging the negotiations. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Judgment and decision making research overwhelmingly uses null hypothesis significance testing as the basis for statistical inference. This article examines an alternative, Bayesian approach which emphasizes the choice between two competing hypotheses and quantifies the balance of evidence provided by the data—one consequence of which is that experimental results may be taken to strongly favour the null hypothesis. We apply a recently-developed “Bayesian t-test” to existing studies of the anchoring effect in judgment, and examine how the change in approach affects both the tone of hypothesis testing and the substantive conclusions that one draws. We compare the Bayesian approach with Fisherian and Neyman-Pearson testing, examining its relationship to conventional p-values, the influence of effect size, and the importance of prior beliefs about the likely state of nature. The results give a sense of how Bayesian hypothesis testing might be applied to judgment and decision making research, and of both the advantages and challenges that a shift to this approach would entail.

According to the Selective Accessibility Model of anchoring, the comparison question in the standard anchoring paradigm activates information that is congruent with an anchor. As a consequence, this information will be more likely to become the basis for the absolute judgment which will therefore be assimilated toward the anchor. However, if the activated information overlaps with information that is elicited by the absolute judgment itself, the preceding comparative judgment should not exert an incremental effect and should fail to result in an anchoring effect. The present studies find this result when the comparative judgment refers to a general category and the absolute judgment refers to a subset of the general category that was activated by the anchor value. For example, participants comparing the average annual temperature in New York City to a high 102 °F judged the average winter, but not summer temperature to be higher than participants making no comparison. On the other hand, participants comparing the annual temperature to a low –4 °F judged the average summer, but not winter temperature to be lower than control participants. This pattern of results was shown also in another content domain. It is consistent with the Selective Accessibility Model but difficult to reconcile with other main explanations of the anchoring effect.

The scale distortion theory of anchoring argues that people are influenced by a previously considered numeric value, an anchor, because the anchor distorts the scale on which a subsequent judgment is made. The distortion of the scale due to the anchor is a momentary effect that would be overridden if the scale was distorted again, for example, by consideration of a different value on the same scale. In the present study, participants compared thirteen random anchors on the same scale to thirteen different objects. Subsequent numeric estimates of objects’ attributes were influenced by the corresponding anchors even though the anchors were divided from the estimates by twelve questions pertaining to different values on the same scale. The numeric value considered immediately before the estimate did not have a considerable effect on the judgment. While the anchoring effect was robust, it cannot be easily explained by scale distortion. Other possible theories of the anchoring effect are compatible with the results.

Consumers often face prices that are the sum of two components, for example, an online purchase that includes a stated price and shipping costs. In such cases consumer behavior may be influenced by framing, i.e., how the components are bifurcated. Previous studies have demonstrated the effects of framing and anchoring in auctions. This study examines bidding patterns in a series of first-price sealed-bid experimental money auctions (where the commodity being auctioned is money itself). We hypothesize that bidders’ behavior is affected by the framing of the potential monetary payoff into “monetary prize” and “winner’s bonus” components. We find strong evidence of an anchoring effect that influences the strategic behavior of bidders.

When participants in psychophysical experiments are asked to estimate or identify stimuli which differ on a single physical dimension, their judgments are influenced by the local experimental context — the item presented and judgment made on the previous trial. It has been suggested that similar sequential effects occur in more naturalistic, real-world judgments. In three experiments we asked participants to judge the prices of a sequence of items. In Experiment 1, judgments were biased towards the previous response (assimilation) but away from the true value of the previous item (contrast), a pattern which matches that found in psychophysical research. In Experiments 2A and 2B, we manipulated the provision of feedback and the expertise of the participants, and found that feedback reduced the effect of the previous judgment and shifted the effect of the previous item's true price from contrast to assimilation. Finally, in all three experiments we found that judgments were biased towards the centre of the range, a phenomenon known as the “regression effect” in psychophysics. These results suggest that the most recently-presented item is a point of reference for the current judgment. The findings inform our understanding of the judgment process, constrain the explanations for local context effects put forward by psychophysicists, and carry practical importance for real-world situations in which contextual bias may degrade the accuracy of judgments.

The anchoring effect, the assimilation of judgment toward a previously considered value, has been shown using various experimental paradigms. We used several variations of the sequential anchoring paradigm, in which a numeric estimate influences a subsequent numeric estimate on the same scale, to investigate how anchoring is influenced by multiple anchors, a comparison question, and by a newly introduced debiasing procedure. We replicated the anchoring effect using the sequential anchoring paradigm and showed that, when two anchors of opposite directions are presented, the second seems to influence a subsequent judgment somewhat more. A comparison of a target with another object before the numerical estimate was not sufficient to elicit anchoring, but it might have increased the sequential anchoring effect. The debiasing procedure, based on providing reference points on the numerical scale, prevented the sequential anchoring effect. The results are in accord with the scale distortion theory of anchoring, but other theories may also account for the observed findings with additional adjustments.

Previous research on anchoring has shown this heuristic to be a very robust psychological phenomenon ubiquitous across many domains of human judgment and decision-making. Despite the prevalence of anchoring effects, researchers have only recently begun to investigate the underlying factors responsible for how and in what ways a person is susceptible to them. This paper examines how one such factor, the Big-Five personality trait of openness-to-experience, influences the effect of previously presented anchors on participants' judgments. Our findings indicate that participants high in openness-to-experience were significantly more influenced by anchoring cues relative to participants low in this trait. These findings were consistent across two different types of anchoring tasks providing convergent evidence for our hypothesis.

People must often perform calculations in order to produce a numeric estimate (e.g., a grocery-store shopper estimating the total price of his or her shopping cart contents). The current studies were designed to test whether estimates based on calculations are influenced by comparisons with irrelevant anchors. Previous research has demonstrated that estimates across a wide range of contexts assimilate toward anchors, but none has examined estimates based on calculations. In two studies, we had participants compare the answers to math problems with anchors. In both studies, participants’ estimates assimilated toward the anchor values. This effect was moderated by time limit such that the anchoring effects were larger when the participants’ ability to engage in calculations was limited by a restrictive time limit.

Anchoring effects are robust, varied and can be consequential. Researchers have provided a variety of alternative explanations for these effects. More recently, it has become apparent that anchoring effects might be produced by a variety of different processes, either acting simultaneously, or else individually in distinct situations. An unresolved issue is whether anchoring, aside from simple numeric priming, can transcend scales. That is, is it necessary that the anchor value and the target judgment are expressed in the same units? Despite some theoretical predictions to the contrary, this paper demonstrates semantic cross-scale anchoring in four experiments. Such effects are important for the direction of future theorising on the causes of anchoring effects and understanding the scope of their consequences in applied domains.

The literature on behavioral decision-making and negotiations to date usually advocates first-mover advantage in distributive negotiations, and bases this preference on the anchoring heuristic. In the following paper, we suggest that the preference for moving first vs. moving second in negotiations may not be as clear-cut as presumed, especially in situations characterized by information asymmetry between negotiating counterparts. In Study 1, we examined people’s initiation preferences and found that unless taught otherwise, people intuitively often prefer to move second. In Studies 2–4, we experimentally tested the suggested advantage of moving second, and demonstrated that in information-asymmetry scenarios – when one party has perfect background information and the other has none — it is actually preferable for both counterparts not to give the first offer while negotiating. We discuss the implications of our findings on the field of negotiation and decision-making, and lay the groundwork for future studies examining this issue.

Above-and-below-average effects are well-known phenomena that arise whencomparing oneself to others. Kruger (1999) found that people rate themselves asabove average for easy abilities and below average for difficult abilities. Weconducted a successful pre-registered replication of Kruger’s (1999)Study 1, the first demonstration of the core phenomenon (N =756, US MTurk workers). Extending the replication to also include abetween-subject design, we added two conditions manipulating easy and difficultinterpretations of the original ability domains, and with an additionaldependent variable measuring perceived difficulty. We observed anabove-average-effect in the easy extension and below-average-effect in thedifficult extension, compared to the neutral replication condition. Bothextension conditions were perceived as less ambiguous than the original neutralcondition. Overall, we conclude strong empirical support for Kruger’sabove-and-below-average effects, with boundary conditions laid out in theextensions expanding both generalizability and robustness of the phenomenon.

Because of the large amount of information and the difficulty in selecting an appropriate recipient in the context of charitable giving, people tend to make extensive use of heuristics, which sometimes leads them to wrong decisions. In the present work, we focused on exploring how individuals are influenced by anchoring heuristics and how group membership interacts with this heuristic. In Experiment 1, two different groups of participants were informed about low versus high average donations of other people, and a third control group did not receive any information about the others’ donations. The results showed that participants were willing to donate significantly more in the high-anchor condition compared to the low-anchor condition, as well as about the same amount of money in the low-anchor condition and no-anchor condition. Experiment 2 and 3 showed that high anchors are more effective when the information about others’ donations reflects members of the ingroup rather than the outgroup. Other variables related to these results are further discussed.