We use the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) to investigate the usefulness and relevancy of monetary services, augmented to include credit card transaction services. We use the new credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates in the models to further the existing research on their usefulness and relevancy. In this research, we compare three different monetary aggregates within the New Keynesian framework: (1) the aggregation-theoretic “true” monetary aggregate, (2) the credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregate, and (3) the simple sum monetary aggregate.

We acquire the following primary results. (1) The credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregate tracks the theoretical (true) monetary aggregate, while simple sum does not. Although this result would be expected from the theory in classical economic models, the result is not an immediate implication of the theory in New Keynesian models and therefore needs empirical confirmation. (2) Under the recursive VAR framework, the credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregate serves as a preferable monetary policy indicator compared to the traditional federal funds rate. (3) On theoretical grounds, we find that the separability condition for existence of a monetary aggregator function could fail, if credit card deferred payment services were excluded from the monetary services block, unless all markets are perfect.

In recent decades, the labour share has experienced a downward trend in Portugal at the same time as a weaker and anaemic growth pattern. This seems to suggest that the fall in the labour share represents an important constraint on Portuguese economic growth, which is contrary to the orthodox claims around wage restraint policies – namely, that such policies are a necessary condition of improved macroeconomic performance, owing to their positive effects on private investment through higher profits and on net exports through reduced unit labour costs and a corresponding rise in competitiveness. This study assesses the relationship between labour share growth and economic growth by performing a time series econometric analysis focused on Portugal from 1971 to 2021. Findings show that labour share growth has positively impacted on economic growth in Portugal, which is in line with heterodox claims and particularly with post-Keynesian economics on the beneficial effects on private consumption played by the growth of wages. Findings also confirm that the Portuguese economy has followed a wage-led growth regime instead of a profit-led growth regime; that is, a rise in wages increases aggregate demand and, therefore, boosts economic growth because its beneficial effect on private consumption more than compensates for a prejudicial effect on private investment and on net exports. The study points out the urgent need to adopt public policies to support the growth of wages to avoid more decades of dismal growth and a new ‘secular stagnation’ in Portugal.

The title of this article is a riff off a publication of G. C. Harcourt’s 1974 piece, ‘The social consequences of inflation’. He wrote this in a period of the global economy that bears some strong similarities to our own contemporary phase when inflation is suddenly back in the global headlines. There is at least one significant difference: at that time, Harcourt highlighted inflation as the outcome of an excess of total demand in real terms over available supplies of goods and services when the potential workforces and existing stocks of capital goods were fully employed. Current inflationary pressures, by contrast, arise from the combination of specific sectoral supply bottlenecks, rising profit margins in oligopolistic global markets for food and fuel and financial speculation in these markets.

The life and work of Pasinetti is overviewed by the founding scholar of computable economics, who observed this Italian economist’s formative years at Cambridge University. Folding in tributes from three further scholars, the obituary identifies Pasinetti’s contribution to capital theory, his view of the macro foundations of microeconomics, his focus on production rather than exchange, and his separation of theoretical and institutional economic analysis.

In the 1950s and 1960s unemployment averaged about 2 per cent. The lowest level of unemployment in the last twenty years was double that and long term unemployment, virtually unknown in the 1950s and 1960s, has been a severe problem. In each period there were two major slumps. We examine the progress of each slump and macroeconomic policy responses in each case, in order to search for reasons for this contrast. The priority given to minimising unemployment rather than restraining inflation is the most important difference between the two periods. Other major principles stand out, the most important of which are that in response to a downturn a fiscal policy stimulus is essential and must play the major part of any response; and that implementation must be swift and then followed up by further measures if necessary.

An earlier ‘conversation’ with Professor J.W. Nevile was published in Essays in Economics, in Honour of Professor J.W. Nevile: Presented to Him on His Retirement. We now bring the story up to date covering the period roughly between Nevile’s appointment as Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales in 1993 to the present.

This article aims to set out some progressive, mainly post-Keynesian, macroeconomic policy ideas for debate and further research in the context of macroeconomic challenges faced by South Africa today. Despite some successes, including at reducing poverty, the South African economy has been characterised by low growth, rising unemployment and increasing inequality, which together with rampant corruption and governance failures combine to threaten the very core of the country’s stability and democracy. The neo-liberal economic policies that the African National Congress–led government surprisingly adopted in 1996 in order to assuage global markets sceptical of its historical support for dirigiste economic policy, have simply not worked. Appropriate progressive macroeconomic interventions are urgently needed to head off the looming prospect of a failed state in the country which Nelson Mandela led to democracy after his release from prison in February 1990. What happens in Africa’s southern tip should still matter for progressives all around the world. The article draws on both history and theory to demonstrate the roots of such progressive heterodox economic thinking and support for a more carefully coordinated activist state-led macroeconomic policy, both in general terms and in the South African context. It shows that such approaches to growth and development – far from being populist – also have a rich history and respectable theoretical pedigree behind them and are worthy of inclusion in the South African policy debate.

Carbon taxes are likely to play a key role in meeting greenhouse gas emission targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. In this article, we assess the macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax on the global economy, paying particular attention to the terms-of-trade implications for importers and exporters of fossil fuels. We use a modified version of the National Institute’s Global Econometric Model, NiGEM. In the stylized scenarios, all countries and regions impose a permanent and uniform carbon tax immediately. Our simulations show that demand for fossil fuels falls substantially in response to the tax, global (pre-tax) prices of fossil fuels decline, and the tax can raise substantial revenue for the government. The overall impact on GDP growth and inflation in each country depends on the fossil fuel intensity of output, the net losses/gains in terms of trade and the macroeconomic policy reaction.

After the 2001 crisis, Turkey continued to pursue the radical market-oriented reform strategy that had started in the early 1980s and followed the philosophy of the Washington Consensus. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the post-2001 period was relatively high, but it was a “jobless” growth caused by substantial productivity increases generated largely by intensifying the work process rather than by technological advancements. Economic growth in the post-2001 period benefited society very unequally. The growth regime of Turkey is vulnerable owing to high current account deficit; high currency mismatch, particularly in the corporate sector; high income inequality; high unemployment; and an unsatisfactory development of the industrial sector, despite some successes. We recommend a new development regime with selective capital controls, a balanced current account, an active industrial policy by the government, stronger trade unions and employers’ associations engaged in social dialogue combined with coordinated wage bargaining on the sectoral level, and last but not least, redistributive policies aiming to achieve a more equal income distribution.

We examine the relationship between prices and interest rates for seven advanced economies in the period up to 1913, emphasising the UK. There is a significant long-run positive relationship between prices and interest rates for the core commodity standard countries. Keynes ([1930] 1971) labelled this positive relationship the ‘Gibson Paradox’. A number of theories have been put forward as possible explanations of the paradox but they do not fit the long-run pattern of the relationship. We find that a formal model in the spirit of Wicksell (1907) and Keynes ([1930] 1971) offers an explanation for the paradox: where the need to stabilise the banking sector's reserve ratio, in the presence of an uncertain ‘natural’ rate, can lead to persistent deviations of the market rate of interest from its ‘natural’ level and consequently long-run swings in the price level.

Since 2008, the euro area unemployment rate has increased constantly, while this economy's GDP was the same at the end of 2012 as it was in 2008. The recent trend of aggregate economic activity in this area illustrates the risk that an economy leaves its stability corridor, in which it usually progresses in a cyclical way, to enter an area of turbulence. In this area, the automatic stabilizers have weak feedback forces. To examine this kind of situation in a theoretical framework, this paper presents a model that relies both on Leijonhufvud's corridor and on Harrod's instability principle. This model allows a threshold to be defined beyond which the economy runs the risk of entering a cumulative process of simultaneous declines in growth and employment. However, the existence of such a process requires unemployment to have a sufficiently direct effect on the growth in aggregate demand, as seems to be the case nowadays.

Cet article évalue les effets d'une politique des dividendes endogène dans le cadre d'un modèle cambridgien de croissance et répartition. Dans cette optique, nous prenons en compte les interactions entre le taux de rétention et le niveau d'endettement et mettons en évidence les conditions de la stabilité macroéconomique. Ainsi, nous montrons que l'instabilité financière provient de comportements moins prudents de la part des gestionnaires, concernant le versement des dividendes. Enfin, quelques simulations numériques servent à illustrer les résultats précédents.

Cet article développe un modèle intégrant le role de la monnaie et des flux de capitaux internationaux afin d'examiner la fragilité du système bancaire d'une petite économie ouverte dans un contexte de crise financière internationale. Le modèle met l'accent sur les décalages de maturité et de devises au niveau du bilan des banques et illustre comment la contraction du crédit sur le marché financier international, via les banques commerciales, impacte la monnaie et l'activité d'une petite économie. Les effets stabilisants du capital bancaire et du ratio minimal de capital sur le système bancaire sont également examinés. Par ailleurs, le modèle souligne qu'un secteur informel de dimension importante est un facteur défavorable àla stabilisation de la valeur de la monnaie et du système financier.

This article argues that an independent central bank is not in itself sufficient to ensure the long-term success and stability of the economy. While there are strong academic arguments for making the central bank independent, these arguments are often developed in a closed economy setting. Where trade is important and the economy is open, making the central bank independent can lead to a strategic interaction between the bank and the fiscal authorities which can produce serious imbalances in the economy over time. In particular, the analysis below suggests that there could be excess demand in the non tradable sector combined with a recession in the sectors of the economy open to trade. Our contention is that the UK economy exhibits all the signs that we would expect to see if this argument were relevant.

The main aim of the article is to analyse the introduction of keynesianism into Spain through the Manuel de Torres' works, the most active proponent of the new doctrine during the forties and fifties. The article focus on the adaptation to the Spanish context of the Keynes's ideas by Manuel de Torres. In particular, Keynesianism contributed to replace the agrarian ideas defended by Torres in the thirties by a new interest in industrial development during the 40's and 50's. Thus, the article provides an explanation of Torres' doctrinal evolution and vindicates the role played by the economic ideas as an instrument of transformation. These ideas contributed to change the Torres perception of the Spanish economic reality.

Notre analyse de la coordination inter-individuelle dans la controverse Hayek-Keynes nous permet de distinguer deux types de problème de coordination. Le problème de coordination au sens de Hayek est temporaire. II est la conséquence de chocs informationnels exogènes perturbant les interactions entre les individus. II implique un concept de chômage temporaire. Le problème de coordination au sens de Keynes est permanent. II est le résultat endogène des interactions entre les individus évoluant au sein de marchés interdépendants. II conduit au concept de chômage involontaire au sens de Keynes.

In the Dixit-Stiglitz model of monopolistic competition the effects of individual pricing decisions on the aggregate price index are neglected. This paper studies the implications of this approximation in terms of the efficiency of macroeconomic equilibria. We show that allowing for the price-index effect, makes the degree of inefficiency positively correlated with the number of agents; it also reduces the scope for New Keynesian outcomes, such as price rigidity and multiple equilibria.

Presidential address for the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic Association, summarising semi-formally the author’s recent work and concerns. Uncertainty and incomplete markets breed demand volatility as well as price and wage rigidities. The conjunction of these leads to multiple, volatile supply-constrained equilibria, typically reflecting coordination failures and apt to display persistence – as documented by three supporting theorems. Specific implications are linked to the conclusions that we should take coordination failures seriously, try to obviate demand volatility and try to by-pass price and wage rigidities.

In recent years a large number of macroeconomic rationing models with smooth CES transaction functions have been estimated. The widely used CES transaction functions with three arguments are often claimed to be derivable (as approximate relationships) from an assumption of lognormally distributed demands and supplies. One objective of this paper is to point out that the reasoning offered in the literature for this claim is not very clear or rigorous. Another, and more constructive, objective is to analyse and discuss in detail the derivation and properties of the CES transaction functions. Basic assumptions underlying the CES transaction functions are illuminated on the basis of a rather general description of the aggregation problem in models with both goods and labour markets, and general properties of transaction functions based on “multiplicative distributional assumptions” are analysed. Several new results concerning the exact derivation of the CES transaction functions on the basis of the Weibull distribution are shown. The quality of the CES transaction functions as approximate relationships given lognormally distributed demands and supplies is discussed. Finally it is shown that the CES transaction functions have reasonable properties.