This study investigates the impact of the massive and unexpected influx of Syrian refugees on the job vacancy rates (JVRs) and job-finding rates (JFRs) in Turkey between 2009–2015 and 2009–2018. We employed the instrumental variable approach to address potential endogeneity issues. While we found no significant causal impact of the Syrian refugees on JVR, they decreased JFR between 2009 and 2018. A reduction in JFR indicates that the Beveridge Curve shifted inwards, thereby raising matching efficiency and facilitating an improvement in labour market conditions. Furthermore, our research indicated differences in coefficients and significance in JVR and JFR across occupations, as well as different effects in these areas between the short and long term. However, the results demonstrate that the rapid and unexpected influx of Syrian refugees alleviated JVR and JFR in most of the occupation groups.

The aim of this study is to examine whether the prevalent and fairly long unemployment spell of young Macedonians, Serbians and Montenegrins early in their career has negative effects on their subsequent labour-market performance: the so-called employment scarring. We first model unemployment spell as a function of individual and household characteristics and work attitudes and preferences using a discrete-time duration method. Then, we estimate the survival probabilities to examine the potential existence of employment scarring. The results provide some evidence for the potential presence of employment scarring in the three countries. The scars are largest in Serbia for all durations of the unemployment spell followed by Macedonia; they are weakest in Montenegro.

This study explores the impacts of the 2008–2009 economic crisis on joblessness in Turkey, incorporating into the analysis the marginally attached who would like to work if the opportunity existed, but are not actively searching for a job. We find that women were more likely than men to have a marginally attached status over the whole period of analysis, and during the time of the crisis, the number of marginally attached grew significantly faster for women than for men. The transition probability for the employed to become marginally attached and move out of the labour force rose substantially more for women than it did for men. The results obtained have important implications. Using conventional criteria, it is not possible to identify the degree of motivation to work or search for work in the case of women in Turkey, where the possibilities of shifting the care of burden to someone else or an institution are very limited, as a result of inadequate provisioning of public care services.

Australia was one of the few OECD countries to emerge from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) without facing a recession, usually defined as negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters. However, the (overall) unemployment rate did increase following the GFC and has still not returned to pre–GFC levels. Unemployment rates for young people went up much more dramatically and remain high. This article investigates the impact of the GFC on youth unemployment and long-term unemployment. To anticipate our results, we find that the youth unemployment rates increased significantly owing to a fall in aggregate demand, although youth wages had been falling relative to adult wages. These findings do not support the commonly heard claim that youth wages are pricing young people out of the market.

This discussion paper by a group of scholars across the fields of health, economics and labour relations argues that COVID-19 is an unprecedented humanitarian crisis from which there can be no return to the ‘old normal’. The pandemic’s disastrous worldwide health impacts have been exacerbated by, and have compounded, the unsustainability of economic globalisation based on the neoliberal dismantling of state capabilities in favour of markets. Flow-on economic impacts have simultaneously created major supply and demand disruptions, and highlighted the growing within-country inequalities and precarity generated by neoliberal regimes of labour market regulation. Taking an Australian and international perspective, we examine these economic and labour market impacts, paying particular attention to differential impacts on First Nations people, developing countries, women, immigrants and young people. Evaluating policy responses in a political climate of national and international leadership very different from those in which major twentieth century crises were addressed, we argue the need for a national and international conversation to develop a new pathway out of crisis.

The low level of the Newstart (unemployment benefit) payment has become a major source of concern about Australia’s willingness and ability to protect unemployed Australians from poverty. Despite this disquiet, there has been little scholarly examination of the implications of living on Newstart. In this article, through the use of a survey and in-depth interviews, we examine features of everyday life for Newstart recipients in the Sydney area, experiences that reveal the scarring potential of low benefits. The article illustrates that for a majority of interview participants, the most basic items were difficult to purchase and many of the interviewees were living in inadequate and even unsafe situations owing to an inability to afford satisfactory accommodation. For some, their lack of disposable income had severe health implications. Social isolation was a common phenomenon, and many of the interviewees found that the low payment made finding employment a lot more challenging.

Sweden has adopted an Active Labour Market Policy as a means of transitioning out of the economic crisis created by the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The approach is to a significant extent reminiscent of that adopted following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The article examines the effectiveness of active labour market policy in Sweden over the period 2007–2012. By analysing these earlier policy outcomes, the aim is to assess the success of active labour market policy more broadly. The hypothesis that greater labour market flexibility allows the labour market policy to be more efficient is evaluated. With a focus on the labour supply, possible reasons for the reduced efficiency of state interventions are outlined using regression models. Conclusions derived from the models point to the failure of earlier Swedish active labour market policy towards the vulnerable groups of the unemployed, unemployed women and men aged 15–19 years and the long-term unemployed.

Youth unemployment rates in most countries are considerably higher than total unemployment rates and increased significantly in many countries following the global financial crisis. Young people in long-term unemployment risk becoming a ‘lost generation’. We investigate individual and family characteristics predicting young people’s vulnerability to the scarring effects of long-term unemployment. After overviewing aggregate youth unemployment trends in several European countries, we focus on Russia and Italy – countries with contrasting structural and institutional conditions and exhibiting different macroeconomic trends – in order to determine whether, despite these differences, there were similar patterns in the relationship between individual and family characteristics and the of risk of unemployment and its adverse impacts. We use a Heckman probit model to estimate the unemployment risk of young people – compared to adults – during the period 2004–2011, before and after the global financial crisis. Despite many differences between the two countries, most of the explanatory variables acted in the same direction in each and so we compare the relative size of such effects. The policy significance of the findings is that personal and family characteristics are more amenable to modification than macroeconomic variables. Specific school-to-work interventions are needed to avoid creating a ‘lost generation’.

It is often argued that job insecurity and precarious work are on the rise. However, the evidence to back these arguments remains mixed and inconclusive. In this study, we define and measure precarious work in Finland using five variables that reflect both objective and subjective insecurity: atypical employment, actually experienced unemployment, the threat of dismissal or unemployment, poor chances of finding a new job, and low earnings. Results based on Statistics Finland’s Quality of Work Life Surveys from 1984 to 2013 indicate that, from a labour market or forms of employment perspective, the proportion of precarious wage earners has increased from 11% in 1984 to 13% in 2013. From a second perspective, however, focusing on changing working conditions, growing inequality and eroding social security mechanisms, we also analyse how a precarious labour market position is related to intrinsic job quality. Precarious workers experience decreased levels of skill and discretion, and they work in a less supportive environment than other employees.

We show consumer expectations indices from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict unemployment upticks in the USA up to 18 months in advance, both at national and at state level. These data predict six of the last six recessions called by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee 6–18 months before the date of recession. The consumer expectations data for 2021 and 2022 are consistent with recession.

We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries. The Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in most other OECD countries it identifies the start after that identified by two successive falls in quarterly GDP. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. We show a 10-point rise in the series compared to its previous 12 month low predicted the onset of the Great Recession in both the United States and Europe.

Unemployment periods and other career breaks have long-term scarring effects on future labour market possibilities, permanently affecting workers' retirement income and standard of living as pensioners. Previous literature has focused on the impact of job loss on working careers with little attention to its impact on pension wealth, particularly the extent to which longevity heterogeneity amplifies unemployment scars. This paper investigates the effect of single and multiple unemployment spells on the lifetime pension entitlements of earnings-related contributory pension schemes, considering the timing and duration of breaks, alternative lifecycle labour earnings profiles, scarring and restoration effects on labour market re-entry, the existence of pension credits and pension accruals for periods spent outside the labour market, longevity heterogeneity, and the accumulation and decumulation redistributive features of the pension scheme. Pension entitlements are estimated using a backward-looking simulation approach based on the actual Portuguese public pension system rules and stylized labour market profiles identified in the SHARE Job Episodes Panel data using a sequence analysis. Longevity heterogeneity is modelled using a stochastic mortality model with a frailty model. Our results show that the timing and duration of unemployment periods is critical, that scarring effects amplify pension wealth losses, that minimum pension provisions, pension credits and pension scheme redistributive features can partially mitigate the impact of unemployment periods on future entitlements, and that the presence of positive correlation between lifetime income and longevity career breaks can amplify the asymmetry in the distribution of pension entitlements across income groups.

This study contributes to the international literature on welfare dynamics, by providing a differentiated picture of paths through the means-tested Basic Income for recipients who are capable of working, after the reorganisation of the basic income system in Germany in 2005. We analyse the employment and benefit trajectories of individuals who became recipients for the first time between 2007 and 2009 by methods of sequence and cluster analysis based on representative administrative individual data. We find a significant polarisation between long-term recipients and those with an early exit from benefit receipt via full-time employment. One in three new recipients remains in benefit receipt for the next years and shows almost no employment activities. Approximately 23 percent leave benefit receipt quickly and work in full-time employment. Several other different paths exist between these two poles. These heterogeneous trajectories should be characteristic for broad basic income systems and require a variety of policies that in part are beyond labour market policies.

UK workers have been experiencing unprecedented falls in real wages and living standards. Taking a balanced view of the available data suggests that since 2008 real weekly wages have fallen by around 8 per cent, which amounts to a fall in annual earnings of about £2000 for the typical (median) worker. Three factors are important drivers of these unprecedented real wage falls. First, unemployment has been exerting a larger downward pressure on wages than in previous recessions. Second, low wages and low business investment have created the conditions for an extremely poor productivity record through both the recession and recovery, though this has been good news for jobs. Third, and pre-dating the recession, due to rising inequality the wages of typical British workers are no longer keeping up with productivity gains made in the economy. If sustained increases in real wages are to occur, this requires a return to strong productivity growth and a re-coupling of median wages to productivity.

This paper addresses the issue of underemployment in the UK labour market – the demand for hours of work is less than workers’ willingness to supply extra hours. Workers would like to work more hours, but there is insufficient product demand to justify additional hours. This phenomenon has been evident in the UK labour market for some time, but has grown significantly during the Great Recession. In this paper, we develop a new index of underemployment which is intended to combine indicators of excess capacity on the extensive (jobs) and intensive (hours) margins of the labour market. This index continued to increase during 2012, though unemployment was stable. The paper also investigates the microeconomic determinants of underemployment, finding that it is particularly prevalent among the young and unqualified.

One of the main puzzles associated with the Great Recession has been the muted increase in recorded unemployment in the UK. In this paper we explore possible explanations for the behaviour of the UK labour market during the period of the recession. We establish that there has been significant underemployment, which partly explains the sluggish increase in unemployment, but also means that (i) significant numbers of workers are supplying fewer hours of work than they would like and (ii) when recovery comes, profit maximising employers are likely to increase the hours of existing workers, rather than making new hires. This particularly disadvantages the young. Our new analysis points to significant levels of underemployment among younger age groups — whether this is measured in relation to their actual hours of work, their desired hours of work, or their labour force participation.

Cet article revient sur l'interprétation théorique de l'élasticité du nombre d'heures travaillées aux salaires en tenant compte de la demande de travail à temps partiel dans le cadre d'un modèle d'équilibre de recherche en emploi. Une entreprise propose des emplois à temps partiel ou complet en fonction de la variabilité de sa demande, de ses coûts salariaux et de ses coûts d'embauché. Les travailleurs les acceptent ou non selon leur utilité, qui dépend du salaire et des heures. Cette économie admet un équilibre de Nash pour lequel toutes les entreprises emploient des salariés à temps partiel et à temps complet. Des simulations montrent que la relation entre heures et salaires dépend principalement de la demande des entreprise et non de la préférence pour le loisir des individus.

En utilisant un modèle d'appariement avec différenciation des qualifications, nous étudions l'effet du salaire minimum sur le fonctionnement du marché du travail. L'introduction d'un salaire minimum semble améliorer l'adéquation des travailleurs aux emplois en rendant les “mauvaises” associations impossibles. Trois résultats principaux sont ainsi établis. Premièrement, le salaire minimum peut augmenter l'efficacité du marché du travail. Ensuite, dès que le salaire minimum est suffisamment élevé pour contraindre effectivement la formation des salaires, les allocations chômage perdent tout effet positif sur la productivité et deviennent invariablement inefficientes (en excluant les situations de sur-emploi). Finalement, des simulations numériques montrent que l'introduction d'un salaire minimum peut être un meilleur instrument de régulation du marché du travail que l'augmentation des allocations chômage.

Différentes heuristiques ont été avancées par les psychologues et les économistes afin de rendre compte des comportements sur les marchés financiers. Elles soulignent les biais cognitifs qui affectent les croyances individuelles, et s'efforcent d'expliquer dans une certaine mesure les anomalies constatées sur les marchés financiers. L'expérimentation menée vise à tester les heuristiques de conservatisme, de représentativité et d'ancrage-ajustement dans un contexte dynamique de quinze périodes : les sujets reçoivent, à chaque période, une information financière et révisent individuellement leurs croyances quant à la qualité d'une entreprise. Les croyances observées s'avèrent incompatibles avec l'hypothèse de révision bayésienne: les sujets ont tendance à surévaluer les petites probabilités et à sous-évaluer les fortes probabilités. L'heuristique de représentativité est, de la même manière, invalidée : le traitement économétrique montre que les sujets sous-pondèrent les signaux les plus intenses, preuve qu'ils ne tirent pas parti de leurs intensités informationnelles. Les hypothèses de conservatisme et d'ancrage-ajustement sont au contraire conjointement validées : les sujets sous-pondèrent l'information nouvelle quand ils révisent leurs croyances mais ce comportement de révision est pleinement conditionné au fait que les sujets s'écartent ou se rapprochent d'une valeur d'ancrage.

This paper provides a simple matching model in which unemployed workers and employers can be matched together through social networks or through more “formal” methods of search. We show that, in some case, networks substitute for labor market and that this crowding-out effect may be socially costly. For that reason, a policy increasing the social capital of the disadvantaged workers can increase the unemployment rate and decrease workers' output.