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Capital in Banking traces the role of capital in US, British, and Swiss banking from the 19th to the 21st century. The book discusses the impact of perceptions and conventions on capital ratios in the 19th century, the effects of the First and Second World Wars, and the interaction of crises and banking regulation during the 1930s and the 1970s. Moreover, it emphasises the origins of the risk-weighted assets approach for measuring capital adequacy and explains how the 2007/2008 crisis led to a renaissance of unweighted capital ratios. The book shows that undisclosed reserves, shareholders' liability, and hybrid forms of capital must be considered when assessing capital adequacy. As the first long-run historical assessment of the topic, this book represents a reference point for publications in economics, finance, financial regulation, and financial history. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Multiple linear regression generalizes straight line regression to allow multiple explanatory (or predictor) variables, in this chapter under the normal errors assumption. The focus may be on accurate prediction. Or it may, alternatively or additionally, be on the regression coefficients themselves. Simplistic interpretations of coefficients can be grossly misleading. Later chapters elaborate on the ideas and methods developed in this chapter, applying them in new contexts. The attaching of causal interpretations to model coefficients must be justified both by reference to subject area knowledge and by careful checks to ensure that they are not artefacts of the correlation structure. There is attention to regression diagnostics, to assessment, and comparison of models. Variable selection strategies can readily over-fit. Hence the importance of training/test approaches and cross-validation. The potential is demonstrated for errors in x to seriously bias regression coefficients. Strong multicollinearity leads to large variance inflation factors.
Chapter 15 covers CORRELATION AND SIMPLE REGRESSION AS INFERENTIAL TECHNIQUES and includes the following specific topics, among others:Bivariate Normal Distribution, Statistical Significance Test of Correlation, Confidence Intervals, Statistical Significance of b-Weight, Fit of the Overall Regression Equation, R and R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, Regression Diagnostics, Residual Plots, Influential Observations, Discrepancy, Leverage, Influence, and Power Analyses.
Chapter 15 covers correlation and simple regression as inferential techniques and includes the following specific topics, among others: bivariate normal distribution, statistical significance test of correlation, confidence intervals, statistical significance of the b weight, fit of the overall regression equation, R and R-squared, adjusted R-squared, regression diagnostics, residual plots, influential observations, discrepancy, leverage, influence, and power analysis.
The prevalent consensus in critical social sciences is that finance articulates the world economy as a global hierarchy of creditor-debtor relations that reproduce and further aggravate existing income and wealth inequalities. Class struggle is correspondingly understood as a conflict between elite creditors, who are members of the global top 1% of wealth holders, and mass debtors, who are burdened by growing costs of servicing public and private debts. This article offers an alternative understanding of how debt, inequality and class relate to one another. At its basis is the recognition that over the past four decades, finance has empowered upper class borrowers, including the top 1%, as it has magnified their capacity to generate capital gains and capture greater wealth and income shares via levered-up investments and other forms of positioning in financial and property markets. The article thus provides a political economy of leverage as power, showing how contemporary global finance has not given shape to a distributional conflict between creditors and debtors as two distinct classes, but instead has set debtors against debtors, and namely the greater borrowers against the lesser ones.
The work of the artist and writer Gerald Nestler explores finance and its social implications since the mid-1990s. Based on his professional experience as a trader as well as on post-disciplinary research, he has developed a unique approach that brings together theory and conversation with installation, video, performance, text, and other art forms. Probing into the narrative structures of contemporary capitalism, Nestler offers a techno-political critique directly from the core of the financial markets. This interview addresses his reading of the derivative as a world-producing apparatus that shapes the experience of the present by preconfiguring the future, and that provokes a shift from representational to performative speech in the actualization of biopower based on the exploitation of volatility and leverage. In conversation with Christian Kloeckner and Stefanie Mueller, he argues for the formation of specific human/non-human alliances that directly attack algorithmic as well as socio-economic black-boxing (schemes that monopolize inherently non-scarce resources), so as to open our imagination to skills and tactics that would allow us to navigate the rich but volatile flows of social, political, and economic abundance.
The model fitting and estimation approach is laid out using two simple linear models, one for a continuous biological predictor variable and one for a categorical predictor. These two models are the familiar simple linear regression and the single-factor ANOVA. We show how these two models are variations on a theme and describe how to fit them to data. The model fitting is treated in detail, laying the foundation for more complex models in the following chapters. We emphasize what the model parameters mean, how to estimate them, calculate standard errors and confidence intervals, and test hypotheses about them. For categorical predictors, we introduce and recommend planned comparisons (contrasts) to examine patterns across categories. Checking assumptions and identifying unusual and influential data is detailed, as is the use of power analysis to determine necessary sample sizes.
There is nothing more important to the future of the WTO than negotiation. One senior WTO Director lamented after MC11 that it was a lost skill. This proved not to be the case on many issues decided at MC12. Nevertheless, attention must be paid to making sure that those serving the WTO and the WTO members understand the centrality of negotiation. It is a skill set that makes international cooperation possible.
This study identifies evidence of the influence of diversification and leverage on the financial performance of Brazilian and Mexican family businesses. It analyzes 102 Brazilian and 71 Mexican publicly traded family companies. Data analysis uses ordinary least squares regression in Stata. The results indicate that Brazilian family businesses have a higher return on assets when diversifying their products or services. When diversifying international markets, Brazilian companies present a lower return on assets and return on equity. For Mexican companies, international diversification derives a higher return on assets and return on equity. In addition, results show that leverage moderates the relationship between diversification and performance both for Brazilian and Mexican family businesses. The study contributes to the current literature by investigating that diversification improves business performance and that leverage is a significant element in intensifying the benefits of this strategy in the performance of family businesses. The study also emphasizes that diversification can be useful to address market difficulties and imperfections in unstable scenarios, such as when it is targeted to planned performance and considers financial conservatism in family companies.
Central to our argument is that “representation gaps” may be filled to some extent by alliances being built by actors at different points in the supply chain and based on the two different logics of representation: representation as structure and representation as claim. Using the Accord as the empirical context, Chapter 5 analyses how and when representation as claim and representation as structure can become complementary: labour rights NGOs can use their power to agitate and mobilise in ways that empower trade unions to negotiate with global brands, while trade unions provide the legitimacy and access to negotiation with global brands. This complementarity is illustrated by the Bangladesh Accord. The Accord emerged as a negotiated and legally binding agreement between Global Union Federations, NGOs and over 200 brands, providing an unprecedented mechanism of transnational co-determination at the supply chain level between representatives of labour and capital.
Scholars and policymakers agree that major powers have leverage over their more junior partners. Giving security assistance or providing arms is supposed to increase this leverage. However, major powers often hit roadblocks when trying to influence the behaviour of their junior partners. This article demonstrates that junior partners are often successful in constraining the behaviour of the major power partners, and have particular success in extracting additional resources from their major partners. This article develops the concept of loyalty coercion to explain that leverage is based on rhetorical and symbolic moves, rather than material preponderance. It then uses cases of US arms sales to show that weapons transfers did not lead to US leverage, instead opened opportunities for junior partner influence. The article contributes to scholarly and policy perspectives on alliance management and reputation, and leverage in world politics.
This chapter looks at how Asia’s connections world is configured, highlighting the extraordinarily pervasive nature of ties between business and politics and the networks on which they are based. Most of these relationships are strongly transactional but they also affect how individuals and companies organise themselves. For example, the institutional framework for private companies is often designed to leverage resources and assets, as well as gaining advantage, whether in relation to the regulator or competitors. We use a novel dataset with information on politically-exposed persons and institutions throughout Asia to map the various networks at the level of each country. There are significant differences between countries, mainly resulting from the variation in political systems. The network maps are complemented by detailed cases and examples from across Asia. Whatever the local variation, these webs of connections bind together with common purpose. Leveraging connections for mutual benefit delivers large and enduring benefits that have mostly proven resistant to changes of government or even political regime. Such behaviour also cuts across political systems.
Our selection and endogeneity corrected findings suggest that firms' political connections negatively influence their market value. We find that firms with a larger size, more operationally efficient in utilizing their assets, and those operating in more concentrated industries benefit more from the political connections than the otherwise corresponding firms. We also report that political connections do not influence firms' leverage choices. However, we find that politically connected firms with higher leverage have significantly lower market value. Further, we note that political connections help the firms operating in unregulated but more concentrated industries, probably to obtain ‘private benefits’, leading to their higher market value. Overall, our results indicate that the effect of political connections is not homogeneous across the sample firms. They also raise questions on the motivation of sample firms' political connections, suggesting that these firms probably obtain political connections for reasons other than enhancing their market value.
Finance theory and practice drive the translation of the theoretical approaches to regulation into operational guidelines. The guidelines define a financial model to assess the net present value of all allowed costs and demand-related variables and the resulting allowed rate of return. The cost component accounts for the expenditures needed to meet all services, investments and quality obligations, net of any possible subsidies. Costs can be assessed at either their observed or their efficient level depending on the regulatory guidelines adopted.The demand forecast is typically based on long-term needs to be able to identify the investment requirements of the sector.The discount rate used to assess the net present value of costs and revenue is the cost of capital allowed by the regulator.The cost of capital is estimated as a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of equity and of debt, with the weights reflecting the relative importance of the two sources of financing. This cost of capital is used to set the upper bound for the allowed rate of return. The average price for the regulated service should be set to ensure that the allowed rate of return is consistent with the allowed cost of capital.
We propose a simple short-run Post-Keynesian model in which the key aspects of shadow banking, namely securitization and the production of structured finance instruments, are explicitly formalized. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to broaden purely real-side Post-Keynesian models and their traditional focus on shareholder-value orientation, the financialization of non-financial firms, and the profit-led vs. wage-led dichotomy. We rather put emphasis on the role of financial institutions and rentier-friendly environment in determining the predominance of specific growth and distribution regimes. First, we illustrate the macroeconomic rationale of shadow banking practices. We show how, before the 2007–08 crisis, securitization and shadow banking allowed for an increase in profitability for the whole financial sector, while apparently keeping leverage under control. Second, we define a variety of shadow-banking-led regimes in terms of economic activity, productive capital accumulation, and income distribution.
We explore the effects of banking regulation on financial stability and macroeconomic dynamics in an agent-based computational model. In particular, we study the minimum level of capital and the lending concentration towards a single counterpart. We show that an overly tight regulation is dangerous because it reduces credit availability. By contrast, overly loose constraints, associated with a high payout ratio, increase financial fragility that, in turn, damage the real economy. Simulation results support the introduction of regulatory rules aimed at assuring an adequate capitalization of banks, such as the Capital Conservation Buffer (Basel III reform).
We investigate the consequences of overleveraging and the potential for destabilizing effects arising from financial- and real-sector interactions. In a theoretical framework, we model overleveraging and demonstrate how a highly leveraged banking system can lead to unstable dynamics and downward spirals. Inspired by models developed by Brunnermeier, Sannikov and Stein, we empirically measure the deviation-from-optimal-leverage for a sample of large EU banks. This measure of overleveraging is used to condition the joint dynamics of credit flows and macroeconomic activity in a large-scale regime change model: a Threshold Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (T-MCS-GVAR). The regime-switching component of the model is meant to make the relationship between credit and real activity dependent on the extent to which the banking system is overleveraged. We find significant nonlinearities as a function of overleverage. The farther the observed leverage in the banking system from optimal leverage, the more detrimental is the effect of a deleveraging shock on credit supply and economic activity.
Capital regulation is critical to address distortions and externalities from intense conflicts of interest in banking and from the failure of markets to counter incentives for recklessness. The approaches to capital regulation in Basel III and related proposals are based on flawed analyses of the relevant tradeoffs. The flaws in the regulations include dangerously low equity levels, a complex and problematic system of risk weights that exacerbates systemic risk and adds distortions, and unnecessary reliance on poor equity substitutes. The underlying problem is a breakdown of governance and lack of accountability to the public throughout the system, including policymakers and economists.
Diversification across asset classes has declined markedly in the last decade and concerns abound about the ability (or lack) of the financial system to weather another 2008-like event. There is a growing volume of academic literature seeking to derive measurement variables for detecting systemic risk. There is clearly a role for the actuarial profession within this discussion and we hope that this paper can engender further discussions and papers on this specific issue.
Just as diversification across conventional asset classes has decreased there has been greater attention paid to the broader array of potential investment strategies that can be accessed via derivatives. The paper explores the prudent management of derivatives in pension funds and general asset portfolios to improve portfolio efficiency both in terms of implementing investment strategies and in broadening the range of investment opportunities for building an efficient investment portfolio from a risk-based perspective.
Spot prices in energy markets exhibit special features, such as price spikes, mean reversion, stochastic volatility, inverse leverage effect, and dependencies between the commodities. In this paper a multivariate stochastic volatility model is introduced which captures these features. The second-order structure and stationarity of the model are analyzed in detail. A simulation method for Monte Carlo generation of price paths is introduced and a numerical example is presented.