The control of Johne's disease requires the identification of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP)-positive herds. Boot swabs and liquid manure samples have been suggested as an easy-to-use alternative to sampling individual animals in order to diagnose subclinical Johne's disease at the herd level, but there is a need to evaluate performance of this approach in the field. Using a logistic regression model, this study aimed to calculate the threshold level of the apparent within-herd prevalence as determined by individual faecal culture, thus allowing the detection of whether a herd is MAP positive. A total of 77 boot swabs and 75 liquid manure samples were taken from 19 certified negative and 58 positive dairy herds. Faecal culture, three different polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods and the combination of faecal culture with PCR were applied in order to detect MAP. For 50% probability of detection, a within-herd prevalence threshold of 1·5% was calculated for testing both matrices simultaneously by faecal culture and PCR, with the threshold increased to 4·0% for 90% probability of detection. The results encourage the use of boot swabs or liquid manure samples, or a combination both, for identifying MAP-positive herds and, to a certain extent, for monitoring certified Johne's disease-negative cattle herds.

Environmental samples are a cost-saving and easy-to-use approach to diagnose paratuberculosis at the herd level. Detailed knowledge concerning its uncertainties in herds with a low prevalence of Mycobacterium avium spp. paratuberculosis (MAP) is required to design sampling strategies in control programmes. This study aimed to calculate a threshold level of the apparent within-herd prevalence (WHPapp) as determined by individual mycobacterial cultivation (faecal culture; FC) of all cows thus allowing the detection of a herd as MAP-positive at a certain probability level (P d). Out of 200 environmental samples taken twice from five predefined locations in a barn, 25 were positive by FC and 60 were positive by a quantitative real-time PCR method (qPCR). A logistic regression model was used to calculate the WHPapp threshold of detection. For 50% P d, a WHPapp threshold of 2·9% was calculated for the combination of three samples (milking area, main cow alleyways, holding pen) tested simultaneously both by FC and qPCR. The threshold increased to 6·2% for 90% P d. Repeated environmental sampling did not reduce the WHPapp threshold. Depending on the particular needs for prevalence estimation or in control programmes (single or repeated sampling) the provided WHPapp thresholds at different P d will enable decisions to be made about various sampling strategies.

A meta-analysis was performed using all published and one unpublished long-term infection-challenge experiments to quantify the age- and dose-dependence of early and late shedding of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in cattle. There were 194 animals from 17 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria, of which 173 received a known dose of MAP and 21 were exposed naturally. Results from parametric time-to-event models indicated that challenging older calves or using multiple-exposure experimental systems resulted in a smaller proportion and shorter duration of early shedding as well as slower transition to late shedding from latent compartments. Calves exposed naturally showed variable infection progression rates, not dissimilar to other infection routes. The log-normal distribution was most appropriate for modelling infection-progression events. The infection pattern revealed by the modelling allowed better understanding of low-grade endemicity of MAP in cattle, and the parameter estimates are the basis for future transmission dynamics modelling.