Primates are one of the most threatened groups of mammals. Understanding their patterns of population occurrence and abundance, especially in response to threats, is critical for informing conservation action. The crested black macaque Macaca nigra is the only Critically Endangered species of Sulawesi's seven endemic macaques. Little is known about its distribution or its response to deforestation and hunting. We conducted a camera-trap survey across the entire species range using an occupancy-based analytical approach to (1) establish the first range-wide baseline of occurrence, (2) investigate how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence occurrence, (3) identify priority conservation subpopulations, and (4) test the efficacy of the sampling and analytical protocol for temporal monitoring of M. nigra using occupancy as the state variable. From 9,753 camera-trap days, M. nigra was detected on 473 days at 77 of the 111 camera locations. Species occupancy was 0.66 and highest inside protected areas and closed canopy forest. We identified eight distinct subpopulations, based on distribution and forest fragment size. To inform future monitoring, we used a power analysis to determine if our effort would allow us to detect inter-annual occupancy declines of 10%, and found that 90 camera locations surveyed for 3 months (8,100 camera days) across three consecutive seasons is the effort required to detect such change with 80% certainty. Our study underscores the importance of well-managed protected areas and intact forests for the long-term survival of the crested black macaque, and tests the effectiveness of camera traps to monitor primates at the landscape scale.

This paper probes the attempt to use power analysis to link three domains: ontology, explanation, and the strategy of political actors. It shows how Katzenstein and Seybert develop an open social ontology that serves as the backdrop for explanations that need to be causal but indeterminate, and a cautious political practice. It exposes tensions in two important links. First, the open ontology becomes retranslated as an explanatory cause. Second, the call for being cautious because of ‘unknown unknowns’ may just as well invite strategies of doubling down in control power.

Identifying optimal sampling designs for detecting population-level declines is critical for optimizing expenditures by research and monitoring programmes. The Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) network is the most extensive tropical camera-trap monitoring programme, but the effectiveness of its sampling protocol has not been rigorously assessed. Here, we assess the power and sensitivity of the programme's camera-trap monitoring protocol for detecting occupancy changes in unmarked populations using the freely available application PowerSensor!. We found that the protocol is well suited to detect moderate (≥ 5%) population changes within 3–4 years for relatively common species that have medium to high detection probabilities (i.e. p > 0.2). The TEAM protocol cannot, however, detect typical changes in rare and evasive species, a category into which many tropical species and many species of conservation concern fall. Additional research is needed to build occupancy models for detecting change in rare and elusive species when individuals are unmarked.

Field experiments were conducted in Chile and western Canada to measure short-distance (0 to 100 m) outcrossing from transgenic safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) intended for plant molecular farming to non-transgenic commodity safflower of the same variety. The transgenic safflower used as the pollen source was transformed with a construct for seed-specific expression of a high-value protein and constitutive expression of a gene conferring resistance to the broad-spectrum herbicide glufosinate. Progeny of non-transgenic plants grown in plots adjacent to the transgenic pollen source were screened for glufosinate resistance to measure outcrossing frequency. Outcrossing frequency differed among locations: values closest to the transgenic pollen source (0 to 3 m) ranged from 0.48 to 1.67% and rapidly declined to between 0.0024 to 0.03% at distances of 50 to 100 m. At each location, outcrossing frequency was spatially heterogeneous, indicating insects or wind moved pollen asymmetrically. A power analysis assuming a binomial distribution and a range of alpha values (type 1 error) was conducted to estimate an upper and lower confidence interval for the probable transgenic seed frequency in each sample. This facilitated interpretation when large numbers of seeds were screened from the outcrossing experiments and no transgenic seeds were found. This study should aid regulators and the plant molecular farming industry in developing confinement strategies to mitigate pollen mediated gene flow from transgenic to non-transgenic safflower.