Based on biochemical kinetics, a stochastic model to characterize wastewater treatment plants and dynamics of river water quality under the influence of random fluctuations is proposed in this paper. This model describes the interaction between dissolved oxygen (DO) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and is in the form of stochastic differential equations driven by multiplicative Gaussian noises. The stochastic persistence problem for the model of the system is analysed. Further, a numerical simulation of the stationary probability distributions of BOD and OD by approximations of the stochastic process solution is presented. These results have implications for the prediction and control of pollutants.

For linear stochastic differential equations with bounded coefficients, we establish the robustness of nonuniform mean-square exponential dichotomy (NMS-ED) on $[t_{0},\,+\infty )$, $(-\infty,\,t_{0}]$ and the whole ${\Bbb R}$ separately, in the sense that such an NMS-ED persists under a sufficiently small linear perturbation. The result for the nonuniform mean-square exponential contraction is also discussed. Moreover, in the process of proving the existence of NMS-ED, we use the observation that the projections of the ‘exponential growing solutions’ and the ‘exponential decaying solutions’ on $[t_{0},\,+\infty )$, $(-\infty,\,t_{0}]$ and ${\Bbb R}$ are different but related. Thus, the relations of three types of projections on $[t_{0},\,+\infty )$, $(-\infty,\,t_{0}]$ and ${\Bbb R}$ are discussed.

Oscillatory systems of interacting Hawkes processes with Erlang memory kernels were introduced by Ditlevsen and Löcherbach (Stoch. Process. Appl., 2017). They are piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP) and can be approximated by a stochastic diffusion. In this paper, first, a strong error bound between the PDMP and the diffusion is proved. Second, moment bounds for the resulting diffusion are derived. Third, approximation schemes for the diffusion, based on the numerical splitting approach, are proposed. These schemes are proved to converge with mean-square order 1 and to preserve the properties of the diffusion, in particular the hypoellipticity, the ergodicity, and the moment bounds. Finally, the PDMP and the diffusion are compared through numerical experiments, where the PDMP is simulated with an adapted thinning procedure.

We consider stochastic differential equations of the form $dX_t = |f(X_t)|/t^{\gamma} dt+1/t^{\gamma} dB_t$, where f(x) behaves comparably to $|x|^k$ in a neighborhood of the origin, for $k\in [1,\infty)$. We show that there exists a threshold value $ \,{:}\,{\raise-1.5pt{=}}\, \tilde{\gamma}$ for $\gamma$, depending on k, such that if $\gamma \in (1/2, \tilde{\gamma})$, then $\mathbb{P}(X_t\rightarrow 0) = 0$, and for the rest of the permissible values of $\gamma$, $\mathbb{P}(X_t\rightarrow 0)>0$. These results extend to discrete processes that satisfy $X_{n+1}-X_n = f(X_n)/n^\gamma +Y_n/n^\gamma$. Here, $Y_{n+1}$ are martingale differences that are almost surely bounded.

This result shows that for a function F whose second derivative at degenerate saddle points is of polynomial order, it is always possible to escape saddle points via the iteration $X_{n+1}-X_n =F'(X_n)/n^\gamma +Y_n/n^\gamma$ for a suitable choice of $\gamma$.

An approximate analytical solution is derived for a certain class of stochastic differential equations with constant diffusion, but nonlinear drift coefficients. Specifically, a closed form expression is derived for the response process transition probability density function (PDF) based on the concept of the Wiener path integral and on a Cauchy–Schwarz inequality treatment. This is done in conjunction with formulating and solving an error minimisation problem by relying on the associated Fokker–Planck equation operator. The developed technique, which requires minimal computational cost for the determination of the response process PDF, exhibits satisfactory accuracy and is capable of capturing the salient features of the PDF as demonstrated by comparisons with pertinent Monte Carlo simulation data. In addition to the mathematical merit of the approximate analytical solution, the derived PDF can be used also as a benchmark for assessing the accuracy of alternative, more computationally demanding, numerical solution techniques. Several examples are provided for assessing the reliability of the proposed approximation.

This study investigates the phenomenon of targeted energy transfer (TET) from a linear oscillator to a nonlinear attachment behaving as a nonlinear energy sink for both transient and stochastic excitations. First, the dynamics of the underlying Hamiltonian system under deterministic transient loading is studied. Assuming that the transient dynamics can be partitioned into slow and fast components, the governing equations of motion corresponding to the slow flow dynamics are derived and the behaviour of the system is analysed. Subsequently, the effect of noise on the slow flow dynamics of the system is investigated. The Itô stochastic differential equations for the noisy system are derived and the corresponding Fokker–Planck equations are numerically solved to gain insights into the behaviour of the system on TET. The effects of the system parameters as well as noise intensity on the optimal regime of TET are studied. The analysis reveals that the interaction of nonlinearities and noise enhances the optimal TET regime as predicted in deterministic analysis.

This paper revisits the concept of rough paths of inhomogeneous degree of smoothness (geometric Π-rough paths in our terminology) sketched by Lyons in 1998. Although geometric Π-rough paths can be treated as p-rough paths for a sufficiently large p, and the theory of integration of Lipγ one-forms (γ > p–1) along geometric p-rough paths applies, we prove the existence of integrals of one-forms under weaker conditions. Moreover, we consider differential equations driven by geometric Π-rough paths and give sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of solution.

Chladni figures are formed when particles scattered across a plate move due to an external harmonic force resonating with one of the natural frequencies of the plate. Chladni figures are precisely the nodal set of the vibrational mode corresponding to the frequency resonating with the external force. We propose a plausible model for the movement of the particles that explains the formation of Chladni figures in terms of the stochastic stability of the equilibrium solutions of stochastic differential equations.

For a stationary Markov process the detailed balance condition is equivalent to thetime-reversibility of the process. For stochastic differential equations (SDE’s), the timediscretization of numerical schemes usually destroys the time-reversibility property.Despite an extensive literature on the numerical analysis for SDE’s, their stabilityproperties, strong and/or weak error estimates, large deviations and infinite-timeestimates, no quantitative results are known on the lack of reversibility of discrete-timeapproximation processes. In this paper we provide such quantitative estimates by using theconcept of entropy production rate, inspired by ideas from non-equilibrium statisticalmechanics. The entropy production rate for a stochastic process is defined as the relativeentropy (per unit time) of the path measure of the process with respect to the pathmeasure of the time-reversed process. By construction the entropy production rate isnonnegative and it vanishes if and only if the process is reversible. Crucially, from anumerical point of view, the entropy production rate is an a posterioriquantity, hence it can be computed in the course of a simulation as the ergodicaverage of a certain functional of the process (the so-called Gallavotti−Cohen (GC) action functional). We computethe entropy production for various numerical schemes such as explicit Euler−Maruyama and explicit Milstein’s forreversible SDEs with additive or multiplicative noise. In addition we analyze the entropyproduction for the BBK integrator for the Langevin equation. The order (in thetime-discretization step Δt) of the entropy production rate provides a tool toclassify numerical schemes in terms of their (discretization-induced) irreversibility. Ourresults show that the type of the noise critically affects the behavior of the entropyproduction rate. As a striking example of our results we show that the Euler scheme formultiplicative noise is not an adequate scheme from a reversibilitypoint of view since its entropy production rate does not decrease withΔt.

The paper considers a statistical concept of causality in continuous time between filtered probability spaces, based on Granger’s definition of causality. This causality concept is connected with the preservation of the martingale representation property when the filtration is getting smaller. We also give conditions, in terms of causality, for every martingale to be a continuous semimartingale, and we consider the equivalence between the concept of causality and the preservation of the martingale representation property under change of measure. In addition, we apply these results to weak solutions of stochastic differential equations. The results can be applied to the economics of securities trading.

Consider a mean-reverting equation, generalized in the sense it is driven by a1-dimensional centeredGaussian process with Hölder continuous paths on [0,T] (T> 0). Taking thatequation in rough paths sense only gives local existence of the solution because thenon-explosion condition is not satisfied in general. Under natural assumptions, by usingspecific methods, we show the global existence and uniqueness of the solution, itsintegrability, the continuity and differentiability of the associated Itô map, and weprovide an Lp-convergingapproximation with a rate of convergence (p ≫ 1). The regularity of the Itô map ensures a largedeviation principle, and the existence of a density with respect to Lebesgue’s measure,for the solution of that generalized mean-reverting equation. Finally, we study ageneralized mean-reverting pharmacokinetic model.

It was pointed out by Crisan and Ghazali that the error estimate for the cubature on Wiener space algorithm developed by Lyons and Victoir requires an additional assumption on the drift. In this paper we demonstrate that it is straightforward to adopt the analysis of Kusuoka to obtain a general estimate without an additional assumptions on the drift. In the process we slightly sharpen the bounds derived by Kusuoka.

Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the system when the distributions of some variables are known exactly, others are known only approximately, and perhaps others are not modeled as random variables at all.The main tool used is the duality between risk-sensitive integrals and relative entropy, and we obtain explicit bounds on standard performance measures (variances, exceedance probabilities) over families of distributions whose distance from a nominal distribution is measured by relative entropy. The evaluation of the risk-sensitive expectations is based on polynomial chaos expansions, which help keep the computational aspects tractable.

In this paper we consider the statistical concept of causality in continuous time between filtered probability spaces, based on Granger’s definitions of causality. Then we consider some stable subspaces of $H^p$ which contain right continuous modifications of martingales $P(A \mid {\mathcal {G}}_t)$. We give necessary and sufficient conditions, in terms of statistical causality, for these spaces to coincide with $H^p$. These results can be applied to extremal measures and regular weak solutions of stochastic differential equations.