While in his early years, Kahneman followed the world of classic utilitarianism in which smart individuals base decisions on how they will truly feel each moment in the future, Kahneman in Mandel (2018) adopted a very different position, namely that what matters is the story people tell of their lives. He thus grappled with evolving stories of both the future and the past, and the presence of different decision-supporting evaluations for the short-run and the long-run.

In this paper, we first propose a statistical model, called the Coherent Incurred Paid model, to predict future claims, using simultaneously the information contained in incurred and paid claims. This model does not assume log-normality of the levels (or normality of the growth rates) and is semi-parametric since it only specifies the first and the second moments; however, in order to evaluate the impact of the normality assumption, we also propose a benchmark Gaussian version of our model. Correlations between growth rates of incurred and paid claims are allowed and the tail development period is estimated. We also provide methods for computing the Claim Development Results and their Values at Risk in the semi-parametric framework. Moreover, we show how to take into account the updating of the estimation in the computation of the Claim Development Results. An application highlights the practical importance of relaxing the normality assumption and of updating the estimation of the parameters.

Working memory (WM) is one of the most studied cognitive constructs in psychology, because of its relevance to human performance, including language processing. When measuring verbal WM for sentences, the reading span task is the most widely used WM measure for this purpose. However, comparable sentence-level updating tasks are missing. Hence, we sought to develop a WM updating task, which we termed the selective updating of sentences (SUS) task, which taps the ability to constantly update sentences. In two experiments with Finnish-speaking young adults, we examined the internal consistency and concurrent validity of the SUS task. It exhibited adequate internal consistency and correlated positively with well-established working memory measures. Moreover, the SUS task also showed positive correlations with verbal episodic memory tasks employing sentences and paragraphs. These results indicate that the SUS task is a promising new task for psycholinguistic studies addressing verbal WM updating.

We analyze the impacts of agricultural subsidies on farm-level production decisions and input use under price, yield, and policy uncertainty for a risk-averse farmer. Using U.S. farm-level data and weighted ordinary least squares, we find that decoupled payments had little impact on agricultural chemical expenditures (our proxy for use) when the payments were first introduced in 1996. However, after 2004 there is a positive, significant relationship between decoupled payments and agricultural chemical expenditures. The results suggest that updating, introduced in 2002, and expectations of future updating caused decoupled payments to become coupled to current input use and, ultimately, production.

Prospective memory (PM) is the ability to remember to perform a future action at a specified later time, which is investigated through the use of event-based and time-based tasks. Prior investigations have found that PM is impaired following traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, there is limited information regarding the cognitive functions that mediate TBI and PM performance. Thus, this study investigated time-based PM in TBI patients, and the relationship among time-based PM, time perception, and executive functions. To accomplish this objective, 18 severe TBI patients and 18 healthy matched controls performed a time-based PM task, a time reproduction task, and two executive functions (Stroop and n-back) tasks. While both groups increased their monitoring frequency close to the target time, TBI patients monitored more and were less accurate than healthy controls at the target time confirming the time-based PM dysfunction in these patients. Importantly, executive functions, particularly inhibition and updating abilities, were strongly related to time-based PM performance; both time perception and executive functions are involved in time-based prospective memory in controls, whereas, only executive functions appear to be involved in TBI time-based prospective memory performance. (JINS, 2012, 18, 1–9)

Background: Keeping clinical practice recommendations up-to-date with a continually evolving evidence base presents challenges. Resources required to update recommendations compete with those needed to evaluate newer treatments.

Methods: We describe an approach developed by the UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) for updating clinical practice recommendations for new interventional procedures and we evaluate relevant initial experience of using this system. Depending on whether evidence for a procedure is judged adequate or inadequate for safety and efficacy, use in clinical practice is usually recommended with either “normal” or “special” arrangements for patient consent, data collection and institutional oversight, respectively. We examined whether differences in the state of the evidence at the initial and the updated appraisal of procedures were associated with changed recommendations.

Results: Since 2008, updating of recommendations focuses on procedures with initially inadequate evidence. “Special arrangements” recommendations about eleven procedures were updated after 3.3–6.5 years (median, 5.3 years), and recommendations for six were changed to “normal arrangements.” Overall, procedures with changed (“special-to-normal”) recommendations had a greater increase in the number of patients included in observational studies published since the initial guidance.

Conclusions: Procedures with changed (“special-to-normal”) recommendations generally had greater increases in their evidence base. Although uncertainties about optimal methods for keeping evidence-based recommendations up-to-date remain, this experience should be useful to policy makers in developing processes for prioritizing scarce resources for updating clinical practice recommendations. Further studies are needed about the value placed on “updated” recommendations by clinicians, policy-makers, and patients.

Objectives: To describe a methodology used to keep practice guidelines up to date and to summarize data collected during the first year of implementing this plan with a cancer practice guidelines program.

Methods: The updating strategy includes regular searches of peer-reviewed literature and meeting proceedings, review and interpretation of new evidence, review and revision of clinical recommendations, and notification to practitioners and policy makers about new evidence and its impact on recommendations.

Results: Eighty pieces of new evidence were found relating to seventeen of the twenty guidelines included in this study. On average, four pieces of new evidence were found per guideline, but there was considerable variation across the guidelines. Of the eighty pieces, nineteen contributed to modifications of clinical recommendations in six practice guidelines, whereas the remaining evidence served to support the original recommendations. None of the modifications led to changes that advised against original recommendations. MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, and meeting proceedings yielded many pieces of evidence, whereas CancerLit and HealthStar did not contribute significantly to the overall yield. Furthermore, key pieces of evidence that led to modifications to the recommendations were often identified by members of the disease site groups before appearing in electronic databases.

Conclusions: The updating process is resource intensive but yields important findings. In response to this evaluation, the updating protocol has been revised such that literature searches are conducted quarterly and the scope of sources searched routinely is restricted to MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, and meeting proceedings.