Prioritisation is about choice, and in the context of species extinction, it is about choosing what investments to make to prevent extinctions as opposed to assessing extinction risk, identifying species that are doomed to extinction, or mapping components of biodiversity. Prioritised investments may focus on conservation activities aimed at species protection or management, but they may also seek to acquire new knowledge to resolve uncertainties. Two core components of prioritisation are a clearly stated objective and knowledge of what activities can be undertaken, acknowledging that there are likely to be dependencies between these activities. As the natural environment and society change, so will the enabling conditions for conservation, hence the need to be adaptable and proactive into the future.

Accurately demarcating distributions of biological taxa has long been at the core of ecology. Yet our understanding of the factors defining species range limits is incomplete, especially for tropical species in the Global South. Human-driven threats to the survival of many taxa are increasing, particularly habitat loss and climate change. Identifying distributional range limits of at-risk and data-limited species using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can thus inform spatial conservation planning to mitigate these threats. The Madagascar Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus radama is the resident sub-species of the Peregrine Falcon complex distributed across Madagascar, Mayotte, and the Comoros Islands. There are currently significant knowledge gaps regarding its distribution, habitat preferences, and population size. Here, we use penalized logistic regression and environmental ordination to identify Madagascar Peregrine Falcon habitat in both geographic and environmental space and propose a population size estimate based on inferred habitat. From the penalized logistic regression model, the core habitat area of the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon extends across the central and northern upland plateau of Madagascar with patchier habitat across coastal and low-elevation areas. Range-wide habitat use in both geographic and environmental space indicated positive associations with high elevation and aridity, coupled with high vegetation heterogeneity and >95% herbaceous landcover, but general avoidance of areas >30% cultivated land and >10% mosaic forest. Based on inferred high-class habitat from the penalized logistic regression model, we estimate this habitat area could potentially support a population size ranging between 150 and 300 pairs. Following IUCN Red List guidelines, this subspecies would be classed as ‘Vulnerable’ due to its small population size. Despite its potentially large range, the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon has specialised habitat requirements and would benefit from targeted conservation measures based on spatial models to maintain viable populations.

Designating protected areas remains a core strategy in biodiversity conservation. Despite high endemism, montane forests across the island of Java are under-represented in Indonesia's protected area network. Here, we document the montane biodiversity of Gunung Slamet, an isolated volcano in Central Java, and provide evidence to support its increased protection. During September–December 2018, we surveyed multiple sites for birds, primates, terrestrial mammals, reptiles, amphibians and vegetation. Survey methods included transects, camera traps and targeted searches at six sites, at altitudes of 970–2,512 m. We used species distribution models for birds and mammals of conservation concern to identify priority areas for protection. We recorded 99 bird species (13 globally threatened), 15 mammals (five globally threatened) and 17 reptiles and amphibians (two endemic). Our species distribution models showed considerable cross-taxon congruence between important areas on Slamet's upper slopes, generally above 1,800 m. Particularly important were records of the endemic subspecies of the Endangered Javan laughingthrush Garrulax rufifrons slamatensis, not recorded in the wild since 1925, the Endangered Javan gibbon Hylobates moloch and Javan surili Presbytis comata, and the Vulnerable Javan lutung Trachypithecus auratus and Javan leopard Panthera pardus melas. Recent forest loss has been modest, at least 280 km2 of continuous forest remain above 800 m, and our surveys show that forest habitats are in good condition. However, the mountain is widely used by trappers and hunters. Given its importance for biodiversity conservation, we discuss different options for improving the protection status of Gunung Slamet, including designation as a National Park or Essential Ecosystem.

Reintroducing species into landscapes with persistent threats is a conservation challenge. Although historic threats may not be eliminated, they should be understood in the context of contemporary landscapes. Regenerating landscapes often contain newly emergent habitat, creating opportunities for reintroductions. The Endangered St Croix ground lizard Pholidoscelis polops was extirpated from the main island of St Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, as a result of habitat conversion to agriculture and predation by the small Indian mongoose Herpestes auropunctatus. The species survived on two small cays and was later translocated to two islands. Since the 1950s, new land-cover types have emerged on St Croix, creating a matrix of suitable habitat throughout the island. Here we examined whether the new habitat is sufficient for a successful reintroduction of the St Croix ground lizard, utilizing three complementary approaches. Firstly, we compared a map from 1750 to the current landscape of St Croix and found statistical similarity of land-cover types. Secondly, we determined habitat suitability based on a binomial mixture population model developed as part of the programme monitoring the largest extant population of the St Croix ground lizard. We estimated the habitat to be sufficient for > 142,000 lizards to inhabit St Croix. Thirdly, we prioritized potential reintroduction sites and planned for reintroductions to take place during 2020–2023. Our case study demonstrates how changing landscapes alter the spatial configuration of threats to species, which can create opportunities for reintroduction. Presuming that areas of degraded habitat may never again be habitable could fail to consider how regenerating landscapes can support species recovery. When contemporary landscapes are taken into account, opportunities for reintroducing threatened species can emerge.

Asian Houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii is a vulnerable flagship species specific to steppe, desert and semi-desert habitats of the Middle East and Central Asia. Iran provides a critical corridor in the middle of Asian Houbara’s migratory route and also hosts a relatively large proportion of wintering and breeding populations. The aim of this study was to assess the distribution and habitat suitability of both wintering and breeding populations of Asian Houbara in Iran and evaluate the effectiveness of the existing protected area network for long-term protection of the species. For this purpose, 644 occurrence points for wintering and 216 points for breeding birds were collected from 17 Iranian provinces during 2015 to 2017. We then used a consensus species distribution modelling (SDM) approach using 11 uncorrelated environmental variables to explore the distribution of Asian Houbara habitats. Results showed that climatic and topographic variations have the most significant influence on the regional-scale distribution of Asian Houbara. Of the suitable habitats recognised for the wintering and breeding populations, 40.6% and 29.6% respectively overlapped with the extent of the protected network. A high level of spatial niche similarity (78%) was observed between wintering and breeding populations. The central, eastern and south-central Iranian semi-arid regions and desert landscapes hosted the majority of both wintering and breeding houbara occurrences. Results of this study could be used for adopting direct management planning and raising the protection level of important no-hunting areas.

The Albertine Rift is one of Africa's most biodiverse regions, but is threatened by habitat loss as a result of agricultural expansion and human development. Previous studies estimated that 30% of the region has been lost to agricultural conversion and we estimate here that 33% is allocated for mining concessions. For conservation planning, we used niche models for species endemic to the Albertine Rift and those that are globally threatened. We assessed where to conserve these species using three scenarios: (1) a baseline assuming equal conservation costs across all grid cells in the study area, (2) a scenario locking in existing protected areas (i.e. always selecting them by default) and assessing which unprotected areas require conservation, and (3) a scenario considering mining planned across the region. Marxan analyses produced similar results for the three scenarios, highlighting the importance of existing protected areas and the value of several community-managed or provincial protected areas in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. The current protected area network covers 134,246 km2 and an additional 64,586 km2 would be required to ensure the conservation of all threatened and endemic species outside the parks and wildlife reserves. However, if trying to avoid mining concessions this increases to 145,704 km2, an area larger than the existing protected areas. Some mining concessions harbour species with a restricted range and would thus need to be protected to ensure the persistence of threatened and endemic fauna and flora. These mining concessions should be challenged by the conservation community.

In Brazil, 64 recovery plans are currently focused on single or multiple species. We aimed to evaluate whether there is a difference in effectiveness and efficiency in the implementation of the two types of animal protection plans. We selected 16 plans, eight of each type. In addition, we analysed which of the 12 operational attributes of elaboration and execution contributed to the effectiveness (percentage of completed actions and threat reduction assessment) and efficiency (cost per action completed and cost per threat reduction) of the Brazilian action plans. Some metrics were obtained using questionnaires, while others were from the monitoring data sheets. Mann–Whitney tests and selected generalized additive models indicated that the single-species plans completed a higher percentage of actions, but there were no differences in threat reduction or efficiency metrics between the two action plans. In general, the percentage of completed actions was positively influenced by the coordination centre, time of participation of articulators, number of monitoring meetings, number of articulators, articulators’ exchange rate and rate of exclusion of actions. The results of this plan performance assessment could help participants make adjustments and assist in the design of future plans.

Since 1985, land retirement has been the primary approach used by the federal government for environmental protection of agricultural landscapes, but increasingly it is being supplemented by conservation initiatives on working lands. This shift logically supports agroforestry and other multifunctional approaches as a means to combine production and conservation. However, such approaches can be complex and difficult to design, contributing to the limited adoption in the USA. To understand and improve the integration of multifunctional landscapes into conservation programs, we worked with 15 landowners in a collaborative design process to build unique conservation plans utilizing agroforestry. We interviewed participants before and after the design process to examine the utility of a personalized design process, applicability of agroforestry to conservation programs and pathways to improve conservation policy. We found that landowners strongly preferred working in person for the design process, and being presented a comparison of alternative designs, rather than a single option, especially for novel systems. Agroforestry was seen as a viable method of generating conservation benefits while providing value to the landowners, each of whom stated they were more inclined to adopt such practices irrespective of financial assistance to do so. For conservation programs, landowners suggested reducing their complexity, inflexibility and impersonal nature to improve the integration of multifunctional practices that appeal directly to the practitioner's needs and preferences. These findings are valuable for conservation policy because they complement previous research theory suggesting the value of working collaboratively with landowners in the design of multifunctional landscapes. Personalized solutions that are developed based on the unique characteristics of the local landscape and the preferences of the individual landowner may be retained beyond a specified payment period, rather than being converted back into annual crop production.

Successful conservation strategies require that taxa are prioritized because resources for planning and implementation are always limited. In this study, we created a partial checklist of crop wild relatives (CWR) that occur in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and identified the taxa of highest priority for regional conservation planning based on their importance for food and economic security. We found that the region contains over 1900 wild relatives of species cultivated for food, beverages, ornamental, forage/fodder, forestry, medicinal, environmental and other uses. Prioritization of these species was based on two criteria: (i) the value of the related crop for human food and economic security in the region and/or globally, and (ii) the potential or known value of the wild relatives of those crops for crop improvement. The region contains 745 CWR species related to 64 human food and beverage crops that are of high socioeconomic importance and 100 of these are of immediate priority for conservation action. The results of this study show that the SADC region contains a wealth of CWR diversity that is not only of value for food and economic security within the region but also globally. Furthermore, this study represents the first step in developing a CWR conservation and sustainable use strategy for the region, where its implementation would contribute to food security and well-being.

Ironstone outcrop habitats harbour rare and endemic rupicolous plants. In southeast Brazil, they concentrate on mountaintops in the Iron Quadrangle (IQ), an intensively exploited iron ore reserve. To evaluate the current habitat availability of 32 plants endemic to canga (ironstone outcrops) and to support priority conservation areas and actions, we compared their functional connectivity in the IQ before (1960s) and after (2014) massive habitat loss to opencast mining. The Integral Index of Connectivity and associated metrics of habitat availability were used to evaluate present and past connectivity at a threshold distance of 500 m. The overall canga habitat loss up to 2014 was 50%. The historical configuration of 334 patches totalling 18 654 ha was already disconnected and the proportion of patches acting as relevant stepping stones was thus very low. Furthermore, in both the historical and current settings, the largest contribution to habitat availability came from ‘intrapatch connectivity’ (i.e., patch area), especially in the east sector. All the IQ canga endemics fall into the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Critically Endangered category and require protection. The recommended strategy for their conservation is to protect large, preferably well-preserved ironstone patches. This measure will require finding the middle ground between economic development and conservation of natural heritage.

In the Arctic, rapid climate change has kindled efforts to delineate and project the future of important habitats for marine birds and mammals. These animals are vital to subsistence economies and cultures, so including the needs of both animals and hunters in conservation planning is key to sustaining social-ecological systems. In the northeast Chukchi Sea, a nearshore corridor of open water is a major spring migration route for half a million eider ducks that are hunted along the landfast ice. Zoning areas for industrial activities or conservation should consider both eider habitat and hunter access to those habitats from the variable ice edge. Based on benthic sampling in 2010‒2012, a model of eider foraging energetics and satellite data on ice patterns in April and May 1997‒2011, we mapped the range of positions of the landfast ice edge relative to a given dispersion of habitat suitable for eider feeding. In some sectors, feeding areas were too limited or too far from landfast ice to provide regular hunting access. In other sectors, overlap of the ice edge with eider feeding habitat was quite variable, but often within a consistent geographic range. Areas accessible to hunters were a small fraction of total eider habitat, so areas adequate for conserving eiders would not necessarily include areas that meet the hunters’ needs. These results can inform spatial planning of industrial activities that yield cash income critical to subsistence hunting in less developed locations. Our study provides an approach for mapping ‘subsistence conservation areas’ throughout the Arctic and an example for such efforts elsewhere.

Organisms adapted to life at high elevations are particularly threatened by climate change, which can cause them to become isolated on mountain tops, yet their responses may vary according to their position in the food chain and their ecological flexibility. Predicting the future distributions of such organisms requires fine-tuned species-specific models. Building on a previous ecological niche model, we explored shifts in the suitability of habitats for the Endangered Andean cat Leopardus jacobita, and assessed how these will be represented within existing protected areas in the future. Using a robust set of presence records and corrected climate surfaces, we applied the Maxent algorithm to model habitat suitability for this carnivore and for its preferred prey, the mountain viscacha Lagidium viscacia. Our predictions indicate that the areas climatically suitable for Andean cats could contract by up to 30% by 2080 under the most pessimistic scenario, with an overall upwards shift of 225 m and a polewards displacement of 98–180 km. The predicted range contraction was more pronounced in the species’ core range, in the Bolivian and Peruvian Andes, whereas suitable conditions may increase in the southern range in Patagonia. Bolivia and Peru are predicted to suffer the most marked decline in habitat representativeness within protected areas. The southern range appears to be less vulnerable to climate change, offering opportunities for the conservation of this genetically distinct population. We discuss the value and limitations of using species distribution modelling to assess changes in the potential distribution and conservation status of this and other Andean species.

Protected areas (PAs) have long been the foundation of conservation strategies to halt biodiversity losses and ecosystem degradation. In the South Caucasus (SC), coverage of PAs increased after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, yet how well biodiversity is represented in them is unknown. We utilized the PA downgrading, downsizing and degazettement (PADDD) conceptual framework and the gap analysis approach to assess how changes in the PAs of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia between 1991 and 2014 have affected the representation of biodiversity. Throughout this period, vegetation formations associated with high mountain ecosystems changed (≥17% representation). Colchic lowland vegetation formations which are only present in Georgia, also changed from unrepresented (0%) to under-represented (from 0% to <17%). The effect of PADDD events on biodiversity representation varied among countries depending on the amount of area gazetted after 1991. There is an inherent bias in the expansion of PAs in the SC. Our findings could be a first step towards changing the status quo by helping conservationists to strategically allocate resources towards ecosystems that are below 17% representation. Yet this will require governments in the SC to shift their views about PAs from being only national efforts to being key pieces of a larger-scale conservation strategy.

Conservation planning often relies on measures such as species richness and abundance to prioritize areas for protection. Nonetheless, alternative metrics such as functional traits have recently been shown to be useful complementary measures for detecting biological change. Timely conservation planning often precludes the collection of such detailed biological data relying instead on remotely-sensed habitat mapping as a surrogate for diversity. While there is evidence that habitat maps may predict taxonomic species richness and diversity in some coastal ecosystems, it is unknown whether similar strong relationships exist for functional traits and functional multimetrics. We compared the performance of physical habitat structural complexity obtained from high definition swath mapping in explaining variation in traditional taxonomic metrics as well as functional traits (e.g., maximum length, trophic level, gregariousness) and functional multimetrics (e.g., functional richness, dispersion) of fish assemblages. Reef complexity measures were good surrogates for fish species richness and abundance but not for functional traits or multimetrics, except functional richness at the scale of 1 m. Remotely sensed habitat maps may not be a good surrogate for predicting functional traits and multimetrics of fish assemblages, and must be used with caution when maximizing such aspects of assemblages is a priority for conservation planning.

The Critically Endangered Sumatran rhinoceros Dicerorhinus sumatrensis formerly ranged across South-east Asia. Hunting and habitat loss have made it one of the rarest large mammals and the species faces extinction despite decades of conservation efforts. The number of individuals remaining is unknown as a consequence of inadequate methods and lack of funds for the intensive field work required to estimate the population size of this rare and solitary species. However, all information indicates that numbers are low and declining. A few individuals persist in Borneo, and three tiny populations remain on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and show evidence of breeding. Rhino Protection Units are deployed at all known breeding sites but poaching and a presumed low breeding rate remain major threats. Protected areas have been created for the rhinoceros and other in situ conservation efforts have increased but the species has continued to go locally extinct across its range. Conventional captive breeding has also proven difficult; from a total of 45 Sumatran rhinoceros taken from the wild since 1984 there were no captive births until 2001. Since then only two pairs have been actively bred in captivity, resulting in four births, three by the same pair at the Cincinnati Zoo and one at the Sumatran Rhino Sanctuary in Sumatra, with the sex ratio skewed towards males. To avoid extinction it will be necessary to implement intensive management zones, manage the metapopulation as a single unit, and develop advanced reproductive techniques as a matter of urgency. Intensive census efforts are ongoing in Bukit Barisan Selatan but elsewhere similar efforts remain at the planning stage.

Conservation of large carnivores is challenging as they face various threats, including habitat loss and fragmentation. One of the current challenges to tiger Panthera tigris conservation in India is the conversion of habitat to uses that are incompatible with conservation of the species. Bringing more tiger habitat within a protected area system and in the process creating a network of connected protected areas will deliver dual benefits of wildlife conservation and protection of watersheds. Focusing on the southern Indian state of Karnataka, which holds one of the largest contiguous tiger populations, we attempted to address this challenge using a conservation planning technique that considers ecological, social and political factors. This approach yielded several conservation successes, including an expansion of the protected area network by 2,385 km2, connection of 23 protected areas, and the creation of three complexes of protected areas, increasing the protected area network in Karnataka from 3.8 to 5.2% of the state's land area. This represents the largest expansion of protected areas in India since the 1970s. Such productive partnerships between government officials and conservationists highlight the importance of complementary roles in conservation planning and implementation.

In the face of an already changing climate, conservation practitioners and local communities face the major challenge of how to plan for a future climate. In data-sparse areas of the world, where action is often most needed, the daunting scope of the problem can lead to inaction. This paper shows that climate adaptation planning can be accomplished successfully with publicly and globally available data by linking science and stakeholders through a facilitated process. Working with local stakeholders in the western Tanzanian Greater Mahale and Greater Gombe Ecosystems, future climate projections produced using Climate Wizard and analyses of literature provided an understanding of the climate vulnerabilities of local ecosystems and human livelihoods. Facilitated workshops enabled local stakeholders to use this information to develop conceptual models and hypotheses of change for these systems, and to identify possible modifications to conservation plans. Here, climate change planning required the modification of most current conservation strategies, developing some new strategies and abandoning others. The paper indicates that climate adaptation planning is achievable even in data-sparse rural and developing areas, but requires appropriate scientific analyses, engaged stakeholders and a facilitated process.