Based on our modern 4D-var data assimilation pipeline Solar Predict we present in this short proceeding paper our prediction for the next solar cycle 25. As requested by the Solar Cycle 25 panel call issued on January 2019 by NOAA/SWPC and NASA, we predict the timing of next minimum and maximum as well as their amplitude. Our results are the following: the minimum should have occured within the first semester of year 2019. The maximum should occur in year 2024.4 ± 6 months, with a value of the sunspot number equal to 92±10. This is in agreement with the NOAA/NASA consensus published in April 2019. Note that our prediction errors are based on 1-σ measure and do not consider all the systematics, so they are likely underestimated. We will update our prediction and error analysis regularly as more data becomes available and we improve our prediction pipeline.

We show that on-off intermittency in solar and stellar cycles is a result of amplitude-phase synchronization in multiscale interactions in solar/stellar dynamos or magnetorotational instability which leads to the formation of kinematic and magnetic coherent structures, and the novel techniques of Lagrangian coherent structures can detect transport barriers and vortices such as magnetic flux tubes/ropes in solar and stellar turbulence with high accuracy.

By applying Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to solar magnetic synoptic maps in cycle 21-23 obtained with Wilcox Solar Observatory we derived analytical expressions for two principal components and their summary curve of solar magnetic field oscillations defined by dipole magnetic sources. In this paper we extrapolate backwards three millennia the summary curve describing solar activity and compare it with the relevant historic data. The extrapolated summary curve shows a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past millennia: the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), Wolf minimum (1200), Oort minimum (1010-1050), Homer minimum (800-900 BC), the medieval warm period (900-1200), the Roman warm period (400-10BC). We note that Sporer minimum (1460-1550) derived from the increased abundance of isotope Δ14C is likely produced by a strong increase of galactic cosmic rays caused by a supernova Vela Junior occurred in the Southern hemisphere.

We present in this work the development of a solar data assimilation method based on an axisymmetric mean field dynamo model and magnetic surface data. Our mid-term goal is to predict the solar quasi cyclic activity. We focus on the ability of our variational data assimilation algorithm to constrain the deep meridional circulation of the Sun based on solar magnetic observations. Within a given assimilation window, the assimilation procedure minimizes the differences between data and the forecast from the model, by finding an optimal meridional circulation in the convection zone, and an optimal initial magnetic field, via a quasi-Newton algorithm. We demonstrate the capability of the technique to estimate the meridional flow by a closed-loop experiment involving 40 years of synthetic, solar-like data. We show that the method is robust in estimating a (stochastic) time-varying flow fluctuating 30% about the average, and that the horizon of predictability of the method is ~ 1 cycle length.

We here discuss the various dynamo models which have been designed to explain the generation and evolution of large-scale magnetic fields in stars. We focus on the models that have been applied to the Sun and can be tested for other solar-type stars now that modern observational techniques provide us with detailed stellar magnetic field observations. Mean-field flux-transport dynamo models have been developed for decades to explain the solar cycle and applications to more rapidly-rotating stars are discussed. Tremendous recent progress has been made on 3D global convective dynamo models. They do not however for now produce regular flux emergence that could be responsible for surface active regions and questions about the role of these active regions in the dynamo mechanism are still difficult to address with such models. We finally discuss 3D kinematic dynamo models which could constitute a promising combined approach, in which data assimilation could be applied.

During the PMS, structure and rotation rate of stars evolve significantly. We wish to assess the consequences of these drastic changes on stellar dynamo, internal magnetic field topology and activity level by mean of HPC simulations with the ASH code. To answer this question, we develop 3D MHD simulations that represent specific stages of stellar evolution along the PMS. We choose five different models characterized by the radius of their radiative zone following an evolutionary track, from 1 Myr to 50 Myr, computed by a 1D stellar evolution code. We introduce a seed magnetic field in the youngest model and then we spread it through all simulations. First of all, we study the consequences that the increase of rotation rate and the change of geometry of the convective zone have on the dynamo field that exists in the convective envelop. The magnetic energy increases, the topology of the magnetic field becomes more complex and the axisymmetric magnetic field becomes less predominant as the star ages. The computation of the fully convective MHD model shows that a strong dynamo develops with a ratio of magnetic to kinetic energy reaching equipartition and even super-equipartition states in the faster rotating cases. Magnetic fields resulting from our MHD simulations possess a mixed poloidal-toroidal topology with no obvious dominant component. We also study the relaxation of the vestige dynamo magnetic field within the radiative core and found that it satisfies stability criteria. Hence it does not experience a global reconfiguration and instead slowly relaxes by retaining its mixed poloidal-toroidal topology.

The solar abundances of Fe and of the CNO elements play an important role in addressing a number of important issues such as the formation, structure, and evolution of the Sun and the solar system, the origin of the chemical elements, and the evolution of stars and galaxies. Despite the large number of papers published on this issue, debates about the solar abundances of these elements continue. The aim of the present investigation is to quantify the impact of photospheric magnetic fields on the determination of the solar chemical abundances. To this end, we used two 3D snapshot models of the quiet solar photosphere with a different magnetization taken from recent magneto-convection simulations with small-scale dynamo action. Using such 3D models we have carried out spectral synthesis for a large set of Fei, Ci, Ni, and Oi lines, in order to derive abundance corrections caused by the magnetic, Zeeman broadening of the intensity profiles and the magnetically induced changes of the photospheric temperature structure. We find that if the magnetism of the quiet solar photosphere is mainly produced by a small-scale dynamo, then its impact on the determination of the abundances of iron, carbon, nitrogen and oxygen is negligible.

We study the rotation-activity relationship for low-mass members of the young cluster h Persei, a ~13 Myr old cluster. h Per, thanks to its age, allows us to link the rotation-activity relation observed for main-sequence stars to the still unexplained activity levels of very young clusters.

We constrained the activity levels of h Per members by analyzing a deep Chandra/ACIS-I observation pointed to the central field of h Per. We combined this X-ray catalog with the catalog of h Per members with measured rotational period, presented by Moraux et al. (2013). We obtained a final catalog of 202 h Per members with measured X-ray luminosity and rotational period. We investigate the rotation-activity relation of h Per members considering different mass ranges. We find that stars with 1.3 M⊙ > M 1.4 M⊙ show significant evidence of supersaturation for short periods. This phenomenon is instead not observed for lower mass stars.

The Sun is the archetype of magnetic star and its proximity coupled with very high accuracy observations has helped us understanding how solar-like stars (e.g with a convective envelope) redistribute angular momentum and generate a cyclic magnetic field. However most solar models have been so fine tuned that when they are applied to other solar-like stars the agreement with observations is not good enough. I will thus discuss, based on theoretical considerations and multi-D MHD stellar models, what can be considered as robust properties of solar-like star dynamics and magnetism and what is still speculative. I will derive scaling laws for differential rotation and magnetic energy as a function of stellar parameters, discuss recent results of stellar dynamo models and define the new concept of spot-dynamo, e.g. global dynamo that develops self-consistent magnetic buoyant structures that emerge at the surface.

The photometric and RV techniques, although extremely efficient to detect and characterize planets, are, however, indirect techniques (as well as astrometry). Phenomena such as stellar pulsation, inhomogeneous convection, spots or magnetic cycles can prevent us from finding planets or they might degrade the parameters estimation. We will consider the challenges related to the knowledge of stellar activity for the next decade: detect telluric planets in the habitable zone of their stars (from G to M dwarfs), understand the activity in the low-mass end of M dwarf (on which will focus future near-infrared high-resolution spectrograph like SPIRou or CARMENES), limitation to the process of summing several transit observations (in order to characterize the atmospheric components) due to the variability of stellar activity (from the ground or with Spitzer or JWST), as well as the methods proposed and used to overcome this issue.

We study how the solar magnetic field evolves from antisymmetric (dipolar) to symmetric (quadrupolar) state during the course of its 11-yr cycle. We show that based on equatorial symmetries of the induction equation, flux transport solar mean field dynamo models excite mostly the antisymmetric (dipolar) family whereas a decomposition of the solar magnetic field data reveals that both families should be excited to similar amplitude levels. We propose an alternative solar dynamo solution based on North-South asymmetry of the meridional circulation to better reconcile models and observations.

Using results of 3D MHD numerical simulations we investigate the generation of the magnetic field in an accretion disk of a close binary star. Analysis of the numerical simulations shows that the magnetic field, which is mainly toroidal, is intensively generated in the accretion disk. In the disk, we can distinguish three regions: inner region of the intensive toroidal field generation due to the differential rotation; region of the current sheets; and outer region of the magnetic field dissipation. In the outer regions of the accretion disk of a magnetic close binary system two types of the dynamo may exist. One of them is the laminar dynamo that occurs as a result of the nonaxisymmetric motions. The other type is the turbulent αω-dynamo. Numerical simulations show that during the disk lifetime the dynamo effect in the outer region of the disk can be significant.

Sunspot observations inspired solar dynamo theory and continue to do so. Simply counting them established the sunspot cycle and its period. Latitudinal distributions introduced the tough constraint that the source of sunspots moves equator-ward as the cycle progresses. Observations of Hale's polarity law mandated hemispheric asymmetry. How much more can sunspots tell us about the solar dynamo? We draw attention to a few outstanding questions raised by inherent sunspot properties. Namely, how to explain sunspot rotation rates, the incoherence of follower spots, the longitudinal spacing of sunspot groups, and brightness trends within a given sunspot cycle. After reviewing the first several topics, we then present new results on the brightness of sunspots in Cycle 24 as observed with the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI). We compare these results to the sunspot brightness observed in Cycle 23 with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI). Next, we compare the minimum intensities of five sunspots simultaneously observed by the Hinode Solar Optical Telescope Spectropolarimeter (SOT-SP) and HMI to verify that the minimum brightness of sunspot umbrae correlates well to the maximum field strength. We then examine 90 and 52 sunspots in the north and south hemisphere, respectively, from 2010 - 2012. Finally, we conclude that the average maximum field strengths of umbra 40 Carrington Rotations into Cycle 24 are 2690 Gauss, virtually indistinguishable from the 2660 Gauss value observed at a similar time in Cycle 23 with MDI.

It is often claimed that there is not only one, but two different types of solar dynamos: the one that is responsible for the appearance of sunspots and the 11-yr cycle, frequently referred to as the “global dynamo”, and a statistically time-invariant dynamo, generally referred to as the “local dynamo”, which is supposed to be responsible for the ubiquitous magnetic structuring observed at small scales. Here we examine the relative contributions of these two qualitatively different dynamos to the small-scale magnetic flux, with the following conclusion: The local dynamo does not play a significant role at any of the spatially resolved scales, nearly all the small-scale flux, including the flux revealed by Hinode, is supplied by the global dynamo. This conclusion is reached by careful determination of the Sun's noise-corrected basal magnetic flux density while making use of a flux cancellation function determined from Hinode data. The only allowed range where there may be substantial or even dominating contributions from a local dynamo seems to be the scales below about 10 km, as suggested by observations of the Hanle depolarization effect in atomic spectral lines. To determine the fraction of the Hanle depolarization that may be due to the action of a local dynamo, a synoptic program is being initiated at IRSOL (Istituto Ricerche Solari Locarno).

We briefly present recent progress using the ASH code to model in 3-D the solar convection, dynamo and its coupling to the deep radiative interior. We show how the presence of a self-consistent tachocline influences greatly the organization of the magnetic field and modifies the thermal structure of the convection zone leading to realistic profiles of the mean flows as deduced by helioseismology.

Most of the exoplanet science is dependent on the stellar knowledge. One of them that has to be understood is the magnetic activity when we search for planets with radial velocity or photometry measurements. The main shape of stellar activity and spots properties have to be understood, for example, to choose the best targets to search for low-mass planets in the habitable zone or to derive the accurate parameters of a planetary system. With that aim, we show in this presentation how these studies lead to give clues on spots latitudes and on the long term variation of stellar activity. The properties of magnetic activity on the low rotators solar-type stars are not easily reachable by other techniques (spectropolarimetry or Doppler imaging) and these studies should be used to constrain theories of stellar dynamo.

The role of turbulence in astrophysical environments and its interplay with magnetic fields is still highly debated. In this lecture, we will discuss this issue in the framework of dynamo processes. We will first present a very brief summary of turbulent dynamo theories, then will focus on small scale turbulent dynamos and their particular relevance on the origin and maintenance of magnetic fields in the intra-cluster media (ICM) of galaxies. In these environments, the very low density of the flow requires a collisionless-MHD treatment. We will show the implications of this approach in the turbulent amplification of the magnetic fields in these environments. To finalize, we will also briefly address the connection between MHD turbulence and fast magnetic reconnection and its possible implications in the diffusion of magnetic flux in the dynamo process.

We review some of the recent progress on modeling planetary and stellar dynamos. Particular attention is given to the dynamo mechanisms and the resulting properties of the field. We present direct numerical simulations using a simple Boussinesq model. These simulations are interpreted using the classical mean-field formalism. We investigate the transition from steady dipolar to multipolar dynamo waves solutions varying different control parameters, and discuss the relevance to stellar magnetic fields. We show that owing to the role of the strong zonal flow, this transition is hysteretic. In the presence of stress-free boundary conditions, the bistability extends over a wide range of parameters.

Magnetic helicity fluxes in turbulently driven α2 dynamos are studied to demonstrate their ability to alleviate catastrophic quenching. A one-dimensional mean-field formalism is used to achieve magnetic Reynolds numbers of the order of 105. We study both diffusive magnetic helicity fluxes through the mid-plane as well as those resulting from the recently proposed alternate dynamic quenching formalism. By adding shear we make a parameter scan for the critical values of the shear and forcing parameters for which dynamo action occurs. For this αΩ dynamo we find that the preferred mode is antisymmetric about the mid-plane. This is also verified in 3-D direct numerical simulations.

The chiral symmetry breaking properties of the Tayler instability are discussed. Effective amplitude equations are determined in one case. This model has three free parameters that are determined numerically. Comparison with chiral symmetry breaking in biochemistry is made.