On the Greenland Ice Sheet, hydrofracture connects the supraglacial and subglacial hydrologic systems, coupling surface runoff dynamics and ice velocity. In recent decades, the growth of low-permeability ice slabs in the wet snow zone has expanded Greenland's runoff zone, but observations suggest that surface-to-bed connections are rare, because meltwater drains through crevasses into the porous firn beneath ice slabs. However, there is little quantitative evidence confirming the absence of surface-to-bed fracture propagation. Here, we use poromechanics to investigate whether water-filled crevasses in ice slabs can propagate vertically through an underlying porous firn layer. Based on numerical simulations, we develop an analytical estimate of the water injection-induced effective stress in the firn given the water level in the crevasse, ice slab thickness, and firn properties. We find that the firn layer substantially reduces the system's vulnerability to hydrofracture because much of the hydrostatic stress is accommodated by a change in pore pressure, rather than being transmitted to the solid skeleton. This result suggests that surface-to-bed hydrofracture will not occur in ice slab regions until all pore space proximal to the initial flaw has been filled with solid ice.

The Greenland Ice Sheet has become an increasingly larger contributor to sea level rise in the past two decades and is projected to continue to lose mass. Climate variability is expected to increase under future warming, but the effect of climate variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume is poorly understood and is adding to the uncertainty of the projected mass loss. Here we quantify the influence of inter-annual temperature variability on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet using the PISM model. We construct an ensemble of temperature-forcing fields that accounts for inter-annual variability in temperature using reanalysis data from NOAA-CIRES over the period 1851–2014. We investigate the steady-state and transient response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the simulated steady-state ice-sheet volume decreases by 1.9 ± 0.4 cm of sea level equivalent when forced with a varying temperature forcing compared to a constant temperature forcing, and by 11.5 ± 1.4 cm when the variability is doubled. The northern basins are particularly sensitive with a change in volume of 0.9–1.1%. Our results emphasize the importance of including temperature variability in projections of future mass loss.

A recent study (Millan and others, 2022a, Nature Geoscience 15(2), 124–129) claims that ice volume contained in all glaciers outside the ice sheets and its potential contribution to sea level is 20% less than previously estimated. However, the apparent decrease is largely due to differences in choice of domain, as the study excludes 80% of the glacier area in the Antarctic periphery that was included in previous global glacier volume estimates. The issue highlights the difficulty in separating glaciers from the ice-sheet proper, especially in Antarctica, and the need for both the glacier and ice-sheet communities to develop standards and protocols to avoid double-counting in global ice volume and mass-change assessments and projections. Process-based inversion models have replaced earlier scaling methods, but large uncertainties in global glacier volume estimation remain due to the ill-posed nature of the inversion problem and poorly constrained parameters emphasizing the need for more direct ice thickness observations.

The marginal areas of the Greenland ice sheet develop streams and lakes each summer, documenting that surface runoff of meltwater is a major component of ice-sheet mass balance. Here we map the slush limit, a proxy for the extent of surface runoff, using daily MODIS data for the years 2000–2021. We develop an automated algorithm capable of detecting daily slush limits, provided sufficient image quality. The algorithm is applied to the ice sheet's western flank (61.7 $^{\circ }$N to 76.5 $^{\circ }$N). We find significant increasing trends in maximum slush limits until the year 2012, but not thereafter. We show that the slush limit typically rises quickly early in the ablation season but stabilizes before melting ceases. The data provide evidence that upward migration of surface runoff in summer 2012 stopped early at the upper margin of the ice slabs. These thick and continuous ice layers are located close to the surface, in the firn, and impede percolation of melt into deeper pore space. Had the ice slabs extended higher, the summer 2012 provided sufficient energy to raise the slush limit by another $\sim$300 m in elevation.

Regional assessments of ice elevation change provide insight into the processes controlling an ice sheet's geometric response to climate forcing. In Southwest Greenland's land terminating sector (SWLTS), it is presumed that ice surface elevation changes result solely from changing surface mass balance (SMB). Here we test this assumption by developing a multi-decadal (1985–2017) record of elevation change from digital elevation models (DEMs) and comparing it to regional climate model output and available records of ice speed. The SWLTS thinned by >12 m on average over the full 32-year period, but the change was highly variable in time and space. Thinning was amplified in the central region of the SWLTS, relative to the north and south. During 1985–2007, the north and south regions demonstrated net thickening while the central region thinned. Regional differences in elevation change are inconsistent with SMB anomalies, indicating that enhanced ice flow in the north and south contributed to thickening during this early time interval. While clear validation in the south is prevented by incomplete velocity data, historical surface speeds in the north were elevated. These findings support the interpretation that changing ice flow can influence ice surface elevation in the slow-moving SWLTS.

A 3-year record of weekly snow water equivalent (SWE) accumulation at Summit Camp, central Greenland ice sheet, obtained by direct sampling, is presented. While the overall SWE accumulation of 24.2 cm w.e. a−1 matches long-term ice core estimates, variability increases at shorter timescales. Half of the annual SWE accumulation occurs during a few large events, with the average accumulation rate decreasing 35% between the first and second halves of the record coinciding with exceptional anticyclonic conditions in the spring and summer of 2019. No seasonality in accumulation is detected. Rather, local accumulation rates appear to be significantly impacted by wind redistribution that obscures temporal patterns in snowfall. Surface snow density is consistent, on average, with previously measured values but does not correlate with near surface temperature or wind speed. Two surface mass balance reanalysis models significantly underestimate accumulation rates at Summit Camp. This is concerning because such models are often used to estimate ice-sheet mass loss.

Ice flow models typically assume that ice is incompressible, a reasonable assumption because ice density changes are indeed small and have a correspondingly small effect on the overall mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets. Given the immense volume of the ice sheets, however, even relatively small changes may influence global mean sea level to a degree that severely impacts humanity (Hauer and others, 2020). Here, we quantify the role of gravitational compression and thermal contraction in estimating ice sheet mass.

Refreezing of meltwater in firn is a major component of Greenland ice-sheet's mass budget, but in situ observations are rare. Here, we compare the firn density and total ice layer thickness in the upper 15 m of 19 new and 27 previously published firn cores drilled at 15 locations in southwest Greenland (1850–2360 m a.s.l.) between 1989 and 2019. At all sites, ice layer thickness covaries with density over time and space. At the two sites with the earliest observations (1989 and 1998), bulk density increased by 15–18%, in the top 15 m over 28 and 21 years, respectively. However, following the extreme melt in 2012, elevation-detrended density using 30 cores from all sites decreased by 15 kg m−3 a−1 in the top 3.75 m between 2013 and 2019. In contrast, the lowest elevation site's density shows no trend. Thus, temporary build-up in firn pore space and meltwater infiltration capacity is possible despite the long-term increase in Greenland ice-sheet melting.

GRACE and ICESat Antarctic mass-balance differences are resolved utilizing their dependencies on corrections for changes in mass and volume of the same underlying mantle material forced by ice-loading changes. Modeled gravimetry corrections are 5.22 times altimetry corrections over East Antarctica (EA) and 4.51 times over West Antarctica (WA), with inferred mantle densities 4.75 and 4.11 g cm−3. Derived sensitivities (Sg, Sa) to bedrock motion enable calculation of motion (δB0) needed to equalize GRACE and ICESat mass changes during 2003–08. For EA, δB0 is −2.2 mm a−1 subsidence with mass matching at 150 Gt a−1, inland WA is −3.5 mm a−1 at 66 Gt a−1, and coastal WA is only −0.35 mm a−1 at −95 Gt a−1. WA subsidence is attributed to low mantle viscosity with faster responses to post-LGM deglaciation and to ice growth during Holocene grounding-line readvance. EA subsidence is attributed to Holocene dynamic thickening. With Antarctic Peninsula loss of −26 Gt a−1, the Antarctic total gain is 95 ± 25 Gt a−1 during 2003–08, compared to 144 ± 61 Gt a−1 from ERS1/2 during 1992–2001. Beginning in 2009, large increases in coastal WA dynamic losses overcame long-term EA and inland WA gains bringing Antarctica close to balance at −12 ± 64 Gt a−1 by 2012–16.

Ice-sheet mass-balance estimates derived from repeat satellite-altimetry observations require accurate calculation of spatiotemporal variability in firn-air content (FAC). However, firn-compaction models remain a large source of uncertainty within mass-balance estimates. In this study, we investigate one process that is neglected in FAC estimates derived from firn-compaction models: enhanced layer thinning due to horizontal divergence. We incorporate a layer-thinning scheme into the Community Firn Model. At every time step, firn layers first densify according to a firn-compaction model and then thin further due to an imposed horizontal divergence rate without additional density changes. We find that horizontal divergence on Thwaites (THW) and Pine Island Glaciers can reduce local FAC by up to 41% and 18%, respectively. We also assess the impact of temporal variability of horizontal divergence on FAC. We find a 15% decrease in FAC between 2007 and 2016 due to horizontal divergence at a location that is characteristic of lower THW. This decrease accounts for 16% of the observed surface lowering, whereas climate variability alone causes negligible changes in FAC at this location. Omitting transient horizontal divergence in estimates of FAC leads to an overestimation of ice loss via satellite-altimetry methods in regions of dynamic ice flow.

Using frequency-modulated continuous wave radar data from the 32nd Chinese Antarctic Research Expedition in 2015/16, subsurface profiles were obtained along an East Antarctic inland traverse from Zhongshan station to Dome A, and four distinct regions were selected to analyze the spatiotemporal variability in historical surface mass balance (SMB). Based on depth, density, and age data from ice cores along the traverse, the radar data were calibrated to yield average SMB data. The zone 49–195 km from the coast has the highest SMB (235 kg m−2 a−1). The 780–892 km zone was most affected by the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and the SMB during ad 1454–1836 (71 kg m−2 a−1) was only one-quarter of that in the 20th century. The SMB in the 1080–1157 km zone fluctuates the most, possibly due to erosion or irregular deposition of snow by katabatic winds in low SMB areas with surface elevation fluctuations. Dome A (1157–1236 km) has the lowest SMB (29 kg m−2 a−1) and did not decrease during Little Ice Age. Understanding the spatiotemporal variability of SMB in a larger space can help us understand the complex climate history of Antarctica.

The internal stratigraphy of snow and ice as imaged by ground-penetrating radar may serve as a source of information on past accumulation. This study presents results from two ground-based radar surveys conducted in Greenland in 2007 and 2015, respectively. The first survey was conducted during the traverse from the ice-core station NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) to the ice-core station NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling). The second survey was carried out during the traverse from NEEM to the ice-core station EGRIP (East Greenland Ice Core Project) and then onwards to Summit Station. The total length of the radar profiles is 1427 km. From the radar data, we retrieve the large-scale spatial variation of the accumulation rates in the interior of the ice sheet. The accumulation rates range from 0.11 to 0.26 m a−1 ice equivalent with the lowest values found in the northeastern sector towards EGRIP. We find no evidence of temporal or spatial changes in accumulation rates when comparing the 150-year average accumulation rates with the 321-year average accumulation rates. Comparisons with regional climate models reveal that the models underestimate accumulation rates by up to 35% in northeastern Greenland. Our results serve as a robust baseline to detect present changes in either surface accumulation rates or patterns.

Since the year 2000, Greenland ice sheet mass loss has been dominated by a decrease in surface mass balance rather than an increase in solid ice discharge. Southeast Greenland is an important region to understand how high accumulation rates can offset increasing Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff. To that end, we derive a new 9-year long dataset (2009–17) of accumulation rates in Southeast Greenland using NASA Operation IceBridge snow radar. Our accumulation dataset derived from internal layers focuses on high elevations (1500–3000 m) because at lower elevations meltwater percolation obscured internal layer structure. The uncertainty of the radar-derived accumulation rates is 11% [using Firn Densification Model (FDM) density profiles] and the average accumulation rate ranges from 0.5 to 1.2 m w.e. With our observations spanning almost a decade, we find large inter-annual variability, but no significant trend. Accumulation rates are compared with output from two regional climate models (RCMs), MAR and RACMO2. This comparison shows that the models are underestimating accumulation in Southeast Greenland and the models misrepresent spatial heterogeneity due to an orographically forced bias in snowfall near the coast. Our dataset is useful to fill in temporal and spatial data gaps, and to evaluate RCMs where few in situ measurements are available.

Surface mass balance (SMB) is the net input of mass on a glacier's upper surface, composed of snow deposition, melt and erosion processes, and is a major contributor to the overall mass balance. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) in West Antarctica has been dynamically imbalanced since the early 1990s, indicating that discharge of solid ice into the oceans exceeds snow deposition. However, observations of the SMB pattern on the fast flowing regions are scarce, and are potentially affected by the firn's strain history. Here, we present new observations from radar-derived stratigraphy and a relatively dense network of firn cores, collected along a ~900 km traverse of PIG. Between 1986 and 2014, the SMB along the traverse was 0.505 m w.e. a−1 on average with a gradient of higher snow deposition in the South-West compared with the North-East of the catchment. We show that along ~80% of the traverse the strain history amounts to a misestimation of SMB below the nominal uncertainty, but can exceed it by a factor 5 in places, making it a significant correction to the SMB estimate locally. We find that the strain correction changes the basin-wide SMB by ~0.7 Gt a−1 and thus forms a negligible (1%) correction to the glacier's total SMB.

Geophysicists that deploy seismic sensors in ablation zones of glaciers and ice sheets to record glaciogenic signatures can confront recording challenges caused by instrument melt-out or tilt. These challenges often require installing sensors in boreholes to delay melt-out, or securing sensors to structures that improve coupling. We show that some of these structures that were buried near a moulin at a snow-free site in the ablation zone of the Western Greenland Ice Sheet resonated as they became exposed, and caused their geophones to record temporally evolving, narrowband signals that mimic features of glaciogenic sources like moulin tremor. We quantify these artifacts with a mechanical model that shows instruments undergo structural resonance as they melt-out, at exposure rates that we predict from an ablation model (RACMO). These models reproduce general spectral features in our data, and enable us to estimate what instrument exposure reduces ice-to-sensor coupling enough to prevent icequake detection. Last, we use our resonance data to quantitatively measure how narrowband signals that originate from either artificial or glaciogenic sources will reduce the ability of certain waveform detectors (correlators) to capture transient seismic events, even if sensors remain coupled.

With the conclusion of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), about 20 000 years ago, ended the most recent long-lasting cold phase in Earth history. This last glacial advance left a strong observable imprint on the landscape, such as moraines, trimlines and other glacial geomorphic features. These features reflect the extent of former glaciers and ice caps, which in turn provides information on past temperature and precipitation conditions. Here we present an inverse approach to reconstruct the equilibrium line altitudes (E) from observed ice extents. The ice-flow model is developed solving the mass conservation equation using the shallow ice approximation and implemented using Graphical Processing Units (GPUs). We present the theoretical basis of the inversion method, which relies on a Tikhonov regularization, and demonstrate its ability to constrain spatial variations in mass balance with idealized and real glaciers.

Surface melt in the ablation zone is dominated by atmospheric temperature and surface albedo. We developed a surface mass-balance model with a dynamic component of glacier ice albedo which includes surface properties, clouds and the angle of the sun. The ice albedo reduction is mainly caused by impurity accumulation of non-biological origin such as dust and black carbon (BC), which is currently not included in other surface mass-balance models. Simulations show that dust from meltout is the main source of impurity mass at the melting glacier ice surface, and current rates of atmospheric deposition of dust play only a minor role. However, for BC the atmospheric deposition is the main source where ice melt rates are below 1 m, and atmospheric deposition is most likely from intercontinental transport due to the scarce population and lack of forests in Greenland.

We combine radio-echo sounding ice thickness data from the BEDMAP Project database and the PCMEGA (Prince Charles Mountains Expedition of Germany and Australia) dataset to generate a new ice thickness grid for the southern limit region of the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica. We then reassess the mass balance of the central portion of the Lambert-Amery system, incorporating flow information derived from synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) and a modeled surface mass-balance dataset based on regional atmospheric modeling. Our analysis reveals that Mellor and Fisher Glaciers are approximately in balance to the level of our measurement uncertainty, while Lambert Glacier has a positive imbalance of 4.2 ±2.3 Gta1. The mass budget for the whole Lambert Glacier basin is approximately in balance, and the average basal melt rate in the downstream section of the ice shelf is 5.1 ± 3.0 m a-1. Our results differ substantially from other recent estimates using hydrostatically derived ice thickness data.

Mass changes of polar ice sheets have an important societal impact, because they affect global sea level. Estimating the current mass budget of ice sheets is equivalent to determining the balance between surface mass gain through precipitation and outflow across the grounding line. For the Antarctic ice sheet, grounding line outflow is governed by oceanic processes and outlet glacier dynamics. In this study, we compute the mass budget of major outlet glaciers in the eastern Dronning Maud Land sector of the Antarctic ice sheet using the input/output method. Input is given by recent surface accumulation estimates (SMB) of the whole drainage basin. The outflow at the grounding line is determined from the radar data of a recent airborne survey and satellite-based velocities using a flow model of combined plug flow and simple shear. This approach is an improvement on previous studies, as the ice thickness is measured, rather than being estimated from hydrostatic equilibrium. In line with the general thickening of the ice sheet over this sector, we estimate the regional mass balance in this area at 3.15 ± 8.23 Gt a−1 according to the most recent SMB model results.

The aim of this research is to investigate elevation changes in the Antarctic ice sheet by comparing two digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from satellite altimetry data covering the period 1994–2004. Data collected by ERS-1/2 satellite radar altimetry and by NASA GLAS/ICESat laser altimetry were used. After preprocessing and resampling at the same spatial resolution, both DEMs were compared in a pointwise fashion and elevation differences computed, which consisted of three main components: (1) actual elevation change, (2) errors in the original data sources and (3) interpolation errors that arose during generation of the DEMs. The objectives of the research were to analyze errors, attempt to mitigate systematic effects when possible, and draw some conclusions about the limitations of using DEM products for computing ice-sheet elevation change at local and continental scales. A linear correlation between errors in elevation differences and surface slope was found in the slope range [0°, 0.4°]. This trend was interpreted as residual slope-induced systematic error and compensated for. Finally, an elevation difference map of the Antarctic ice sheet was generated. Analysis of the derived elevation changes at the drainage basin was also made. Results are compared with the results of previous studies.