This paper presents a physics-based macroscale model for the densification of dry snow which provides for a smooth transition between densification by grain-boundary sliding (stage 1) and densification by power-law creep (stage 2). The model uses established values of the stage 1 and 2 densification rates away from the transition zone and two transition parameters with a simple physical basis: the transition density and the half-width of the transition zone. It has been calibrated using density profiles from the SUMup database and physically based expressions for the transition parameters have been derived. The transition model produces better predictions of the depth of the nominal bubble close-off horizon than the Herron and Langway model, both in its classical form and in a recent version with re-optimised densification rates.

Refreezing of meltwater in firn is a major component of Greenland ice-sheet's mass budget, but in situ observations are rare. Here, we compare the firn density and total ice layer thickness in the upper 15 m of 19 new and 27 previously published firn cores drilled at 15 locations in southwest Greenland (1850–2360 m a.s.l.) between 1989 and 2019. At all sites, ice layer thickness covaries with density over time and space. At the two sites with the earliest observations (1989 and 1998), bulk density increased by 15–18%, in the top 15 m over 28 and 21 years, respectively. However, following the extreme melt in 2012, elevation-detrended density using 30 cores from all sites decreased by 15 kg m−3 a−1 in the top 3.75 m between 2013 and 2019. In contrast, the lowest elevation site's density shows no trend. Thus, temporary build-up in firn pore space and meltwater infiltration capacity is possible despite the long-term increase in Greenland ice-sheet melting.

The surface restitution method we present reconstructs the evolution of a glacier surface between two time-separated surface topographies using seasonal surface mass balance (SMB) data. A conservative and systematic error analysis is included, based on the availability of surface elevation measurements within the period. The method is applied from 2001 to 2013 at Hurd Glacier (a 4 km2 glacier), where we have sufficient SMB and elevation data. We estimate surface elevation changes in two steps: (1) elevation change due to SMB and (2) elevation change due to glacier dynamics. Four different models of the method are compared depending on whether or not accumulation is memorised at each time step and whether they employ balance profiles or SMB maps. Models are validated by comparing a set of surface measurements retrieved in 2007 with the corresponding restituted elevations. Although surface elevation change between 2001 and 2007 was larger than 10 m, more than 80% of the points restituted by the four models showed errors below ±1 m compared to only 33% when predicted by a linear interpolator. As error estimates between models differ by 0.10 m, we recommend the simplest model, which does not memorise accumulation and interpolates SMB by elevation profiles.

In polar deserts, depth hoar (hereinafter: DH) growth is not systematic unlike on tundra and this is critical for snowpack properties. Here, we address the spatio-temporal variability of the DH layer in the polar desert at two sites in the Canadian High Arctic: Ward Hunt Island (83° N) and Resolute Bay (75° N). Our data show that, over humid areas, DH represented a larger fraction of the snowpack and was characterized by lower density and coarser crystals than over dry gravelly areas. Increased soil moisture extends the zero-curtain period during freeze-up, leading to stronger temperature gradients in the snowpack and greater kinetic metamorphism. Our results also demonstrate that the large inter-annual variability in DH is primarily driven by wind conditions in the fall since this key variable controls the initial snow density and snow onset date. These strong controls exerted by soil moisture and meteorological conditions on DH growth in polar deserts highlight the possibility of major changes in polar snowpacks physical properties in response to the rapid climate and environmental changes currently affecting these regions.

The Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica contains ice equivalent to 3–4 m of global mean sea level rise and is primarily drained by Cook Glacier. Of concern is that recent observations (since the 1970s) show an acceleration in ice speed over the grounding line of both the Eastern and Western portions of Cook Glacier. Here, we use a numerical ice-flow model (Úa) to simulate the instantaneous effects of observed changes at the terminus of Cook Glacier in order to understand the link between these changes and recently observed ice acceleration. Simulations suggest that the acceleration of Cook West was caused by a retreat in calving-front position in the 1970s, potentially enhanced by grounding-line retreat, while acceleration of Cook East was likely caused by ice-shelf thinning and grounding-line retreat in the mid-1990s. Moreover, we show that the instantaneous ice discharge at Cook East would increase by up to 85% if the whole ice shelf is removed and it ungrounds from a pinning point; and that the discharge at Cook West could increase by ~300% if its grounding line retreated by 10 km.

We present the first fully coupled 3D full-Stokes model of a tidewater glacier, incorporating ice flow, subglacial hydrology, plume-induced frontal melting and calving. We apply the model to Store Glacier (Sermeq Kujalleq) in west Greenland to simulate a year of high melt (2012) and one of low melt (2017). In terms of modelled hydrology, we find perennial channels extending 5 km inland from the terminus and up to 41 and 29 km inland in summer 2012 and 2017, respectively. We also report a hydrodynamic feedback that suppresses channel growth under thicker ice inland and allows water to be stored in the distributed system. At the terminus, we find hydrodynamic feedbacks exert a major control on calving through their impact on velocity. We show that 2012 marked a year in which Store Glacier developed a fully channelised drainage system, unlike 2017, where it remained only partially developed. This contrast in modelled behaviour indicates that tidewater glaciers can experience a strong hydrological, as well as oceanic, control, which is consistent with observations showing glaciers switching between types of behaviour. The fully coupled nature of the model allows us to demonstrate the likely lack of any hydrological or ice-dynamic memory at Store Glacier.

Basal conditions play an essential role in the dynamics of outlet glaciers, but direct observations at the bed of glaciers are challenging to obtain. Instead, inverse methods can be used to infer basal parameters from surface observations. Here, we use a simple ice-flow model as a forward model in an inversion scheme to retrieve the spatio-temporally variable basal stress parameter for Hagen Bræ, North Greenland, from 1990 to 2020. Hagen Bræ is a surge-type glacier with up to an order of magnitude variability of winter velocities near the grounding line. We find that downstream changes in the basal stress parameter can explain most of the variation of flow velocity, and we further identify a region of high resistance ~20–40 km from the grounding line. We hypothesise that this region of high resistance plays an important role in controlling glacier discharge.

Palaeo-glacial landforms can give insights into bed roughness that currently cannot be captured underneath contemporary-ice streams. A few studies have measured bed roughness of palaeo-ice streams but the bed roughness of specific landform assemblages has not been assessed. If glacial landform assemblages have a characteristic bed-roughness signature, this could potentially be used to constrain where certain landform assemblages exist underneath contemporary-ice sheets. To test this, bed roughness was calculated along 5 m × 5 m resolution transects (NEXTMap DTM, 5 m resolution), which were placed over glacial landform assemblages (e.g. drumlins) in the UK. We find that a combination of total roughness and anisotropy of roughness can be used to define characteristic roughness signatures of glacial landform assemblages. The results show that different window sizes are required to determine the characteristic roughness for a wide range of landform types and to produce bed-roughness signatures of these. Mega scale glacial lineations on average have the lowest bed-roughness values and are the most anisotropic landform assemblage.

Passive microwave satellite observations are used to identify the presence of surface meltwater across Antarctica at daily intervals from July 1979 to June 2020, with a focus on ice shelves. Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have the highest number of annual days of melt, with a maximum of 89 days. Over the entire time period, there are few significant linear trends in days of melt per year. High melt years can be split into two distinct categories, those with high melt days in Dronning Maud Land and Wilkes Land, and those with high melt days in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Bellingshausen Sea sector of West Antarctica. The first pattern coincides with significant negative correlations between melt days and spring and summer Southern Annular Mode. Both patterns also form the primary modes of spatial and annual variability in the dataset observed by Principal Component Analysis. Areas experiencing extended melt for the first time in years tend to show large decreases in subsequent winter microwave emissions due to structural changes in the firn. We use this to identify the impact of novel melt events, particularly over the austral summers of 1991/92 and 2015/16 on the Ross Ice Shelf.

Tiny samples of ancient atmosphere in air bubbles within ice cores contain argon (Ar), which can be used to reconstruct past temperature changes. At a sufficient depth, the air bubbles are compressed by the overburden pressure under low temperature and transform into air-hydrate crystals. While the oxygen (O2) and nitrogen (N2) molecules have indeed been identified in the air-hydrate crystals with Raman spectroscopy, direct observational knowledge of the distribution of Ar at depth within ice sheet and its enclathration has been lacking. In this study, we applied scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) to five air-hydrate crystals in the Greenland NEEM ice core, finding them to contain Ar and N. Given that Ar cannot be detected by Raman spectroscopy, the method commonly used for O2 and N2, the SEM-EDS measurement method may become increasingly useful for measuring inert gases in deep ice cores.

For the release of a slab avalanche, crack propagation within a weak snowpack layer below a cohesive snow slab is required. As crack speed measurements can give insight into underlying processes, we analysed three crack propagation events that occurred in similar snowpacks and covered all scales relevant for avalanche release. For the largest scale, up to 400 m, we estimated crack speed from an avalanche movie; for scales between 5 and 25 m, we used accelerometers placed on the snow surface and for scales below 5 m, we performed a propagation saw test. The mean crack speeds ranged from 36 ± 6 to 49 ± 5 m s−1, and did not exhibit scale dependence. Using the discrete element method and the material point method, we reproduced the measured crack speeds reasonably well, in particular the terminal crack speed observed at smaller scales. Finally, we used a finite element model to assess the speed of different elastic waves in a layered snowpack. Results suggest that the observed cracks propagated as mixed mode closing cracks and that the flexural wave of the slab is responsible for the energy transfer to the crack tip.

We analysed the three-dimensional microstructure of sea ice by means of X-ray-micro computed tomography. Microscopic (brine- and air- pore sizes, numbers and connectivity) and macroscopic (salinity, density, porosity) properties of young Arctic sea ice were analysed. The analysis is based on ice cores obtained during spring 2016. Centrifuging of brine prior to CT imaging has allowed us to derive confident relationships between the open, vertically connected and total porosity of young sea ice at relatively high temperatures. We analysed the dependence of the microscopic properties on vertical position and total brine porosity. Most bulk properties (salinity, density) and pore space properties (pore sizes and their distribution) show a strong dependence on total brine porosity, but did not change significantly over the course of the field work. However, significant changes were observed for pore numbers (decreasing over time) and pore connectivity (increasing over time). CT-based salinity determinations are subject to larger than standard uncertainties (from conductivity), while the CT method yields important information about the salinity contributions from closed and open pores. We also performed a comparison of CT-based air porosity with calculations based on density from hydrostatic weighing. The consistency is encouraging and gives confidence to our CT-based results.

Understanding glacier drainage system behaviour and its response to increased meltwater production faces several challenges in the High Arctic because many glaciers are transitioning from polythermal to almost entirely cold thermal structures. We, therefore, used ground-penetrating radar data to investigate the thermal structure and drainage system of Waldemarbreen in Svalbard: a small High Arctic glacier believed to be undergoing thermal change. We found that Waldemarbreen retains up to 80 m of temperate ice in its upper reaches, but this thickness most likely is a relict from the Little Ice Age when greater ice volumes were insulated from winter cooling and caused greater driving stresses. Since then, negative mass balance and firn loss have prevented latent heat release and allowed near-surface ice temperatures to cool in winter, thus reducing the thickness of the temperate ice. Numerous reflectors that can be traced up-glacier are interpreted as englacial channels formed by hydrofracturing in the crevassed upper region of the glacier. The alternative cut and closure mechanism of conduit initiation only forms conduits in parts of the lower ablation area. Consequently, Waldemarbreen provides evidence that hydrofracturing at higher elevations can play a major role in englacial water drainage through cold ice.

Ice-sheet simulations of Antarctica extending to the year 3000 are analysed to investigate the long-term impacts of 21st-century warming. Climate projections are used as forcing until 2100 and afterwards no climate trend is applied. Fourteen experiments are for the ‘unabated warming’ pathway, and three are for the ‘reduced emissions’ pathway. For the unabated warming path simulations, West Antarctica suffers a much more severe ice loss than East Antarctica. In these cases, the mass loss amounts to an ensemble average of ~3.5 m sea-level equivalent (SLE) by the year 3000 and ~5.3 m for the most sensitive experiment. Four phases of mass loss occur during the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. For the reduced emissions pathway, the mean mass loss is ~0.24 m SLE. By demonstrating that the consequences of the 21st century unabated warming path forcing are large and long term, the results present a different perspective to ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Extended ABUMIP (Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project) simulations, assuming sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse, with and without bedrock rebound, corroborate a negative feedback for ice loss found in previous studies, where bedrock rebound acts to slow the rate of ice loss.

We conduct extended versions of the ISMIP6 future climate experiments for the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 with the model SICOPOLIS. Beyond 2100, the climate forcing is kept fixed at late-21st-century conditions. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, which amounts to ~ 1.8 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the 12-experiment mean, and ~ 3.5 m SLE (~ 50% of the entire mass) for the most sensitive experiment. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the mass loss is limited to a two-experiment mean of ~ 0.28 m SLE. Climate-change mitigation during the next decades will therefore be an efficient means for limiting the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea-level rise in the long term.