The Permian–Triassic climate crisis can provide key insights into the potential impact of horizon threats to modern-day biodiversity. This crisis coincides with the same extensive environmental changes that threaten modern marine ecosystems (i.e., thermal stress, deoxygenation and ocean acidification), but the primary drivers of extinction are currently unknown. To understand which factors caused extinctions, we conducted a data analysis to quantify the relationship (anomalies, state-shifts and trends) between geochemical proxies and the fossil record at the most intensively studied locality for this event, the Meishan section, China. We found that δ18Oapatite (paleotemperature proxy) and δ114/110Cd (primary productivity proxy) best explain changes in species diversity and species composition in Meishan’s paleoequatorial setting. These findings suggest that the physiological stresses induced by ocean warming and nutrient availability played a predominant role in driving equatorial marine extinctions during the Permian–Triassic event. This research enhances our understanding of the interplay between environmental changes and extinction dynamics during a past climate crisis, presenting an outlook for extinction threats in the worst-case “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5–8.5)” scenario.

Processes of extinction, especially selectivity, can be studied using the distribution of species in morphospace. Random extinction reduces the number of species but has little effect on the range of morphologies or ecological roles in a fauna or flora. In contrast, selective extinction culls species based on their functional relationship to the altered environment and, therefore, to their position within a morphospace. Analysis of the distribution of extinctions within morphospaces can thus help understand whether the drivers of the extinction are linked to functional traits. Current approaches include measuring changes in disparity, mean morphology, or evenness between pre- and post-extinction morphologies. Not all measurements are straightforward, however, because morphospaces may be non-metric or non-linear in ways that can mislead interpretation. Dimension-reduction techniques like principal component analysis – commonly used with highly multivariate geometric morphometric data sets – have properties that can make the center of morphospace falsely appear to be densely populated, can make selective extinctions appear randomly distributed, or can make a group of non-specialized morphologies appear to be extreme outliers. Applying fully multivariate metrics and statistical tests will prevent most misinterpretations, as will making explicit functional connections between morphology and the underlying extinction processes.

The Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) mass extinction was geologically instantaneous, causing the most drastic extinction rates in Earth’s History. The rapid species losses and environmental destruction from the Chicxulub impact at 66.02 Ma made the K–Pg the most comparable past event to today’s projected “sixth” mass extinction. The extinction famously eliminated major clades of animals and plankton. However, for land plants, losses primarily occurred among species observed in regional studies but left no global trace at the family or major-clade level, leading to questions about whether there was a significant K–Pg plant extinction. We review emerging paleobotanical data from the Americas and argue that the evidence strongly favors profound (generally >50%), geographically heterogeneous species losses and recovery consistent with mass extinction. The heterogeneity appears to reflect several factors, including distance from the impact site and marine and latitudinal buffering of the impact winter. The ensuing transformations have affected all land life, including true angiosperm dominance in the world’s forests, the birth of the hyperdiverse Neotropical rainforest biome, and evolutionary radiations leading to many crown angiosperm clades. Although the worst outcomes are still preventable, the sixth mass extinction could mirror the K–Pg event by eliminating comparable numbers of plant species in a geologic instant, impoverishing and eventually transforming terrestrial ecosystems while having little effect on global plant-family diversity.

Over 40 years ago, Raup and Sepkoski identified five episodes of elevated extinction in the marine fossil record that were thought to be statistically distinct, thus warranting the term the “Big Five” mass extinctions. Since then, the term has become part of standard vocabulary, especially with the naming of the current biodiversity crisis as the “sixth mass extinction.” However, there is no general agreement on which time intervals should be viewed as mass extinctions, in part because the Big Five turn out not to be statistically distinct from background rates of extinction, and in part, because other intervals of time have even higher extinction rates, in the Cambrian and early Ordovician. Nonetheless, the Big Five represent the five largest events since the early Ordovician, including in analyses that attempt to compensate for the incompleteness of the fossil and rock records. In the last 40 years, we have learned a great deal about the causes of many of the major and minor extinction events and are beginning to unravel the mechanisms that translated the initial environmental disturbances into extinction. However, for many of the events, further understanding will require going back to the outcrop, where the patchy distribution of environments and pervasive temporal gaps in the rock record challenge our ability to establish true extinction patterns. As for the current biodiversity crisis, there is no doubt that the rate of extinction is among the highest ever experienced by the biosphere, perhaps the second highest after the end-Cretaceous bolide impact. However (and fortunately), the absolute number of extinctions is still relatively small – there is still time to prevent this becoming a genuine mass extinction. Given the arbitrariness of calling out the Big Five, perhaps the current crisis should be called the “incipient Anthropocene mass extinction” rather than the “sixth mass extinction.”

Using a simple, coarse-grained Poisson process model, we calculate – for seven types of astrophysical catastrophe – both their individual and combined threat to complex lifeforms (extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs)) throughout the Milky Way Galaxy. In terms of cumulative effects, we calculate that ETIs are likely to be astrophysically driven extinct on timescales of roughly once every 100 million years. In terms of comparative effects, large bolide impactors represent the most significant type of astrophysical contribution to the galaxy-wide debilitation of hypothesized ETI civilizations. Nonetheless, we conclude that astrophysical existential threats – whether taken singly or in combination – are likely insufficient, alone, to explain the Fermi Paradox. Astrophysical catastrophes, while both deadly and ubiquitous, do not appear to be frequent enough to wipe out every species in the Galaxy before they can attain or utilize spacefaring status.

The Devonian/Carboniferous Boundary (DCB) interval is associated with mass extinction, isotope excursions and a short glacial episode. This study investigates how boundary extinction and environmental change is expressed in the glacial high-palaeolatitudinal record of the Bolivian Altiplano (western Gondwana). A latest Devonian and early Carboniferous section has been investigated using sedimentology, palynology, total organic carbon and bulk δ13Corganic. The Colpacucho Formation is a Late Devonian shelfal–marine siliciclastic sequence. It is overlain in the study area by a unit of coarse sandstones and sandy diamictites, interpreted as glaciomarine. This distinctive glaciomarine unit is at least 7 km wide and 60–120 m thick with a variably incisive basal contact (<100 m). It is of very latest Famennian age and is a stratigraphic equivalent of proven glacigenic deposits across central South America. The offshore marine Kasa Formation overlies the glacigenic unit above a basal flooding surface. The DCB is 12 m above this flooding surface on the last occurrence of Retispora lepidophyta and significant palynological assemblage changes. This includes the loss of the Umbellasphaeridium saharicum phytoplankton bioprovince, endemic to Gondwana. Marine and terrestrial palynological extinctions are synchronous with a 2 ‰ positive carbon isotope excursion interpreted to be reflective of changes in organic matter delivery and preservation during an interval of environmental stress. These results inform wider debates on global environmental change and mass extinction at the DCB.

The Late Triassic deposits of the Sichuan Basin, southwestern China are significant for hosting abundant and diverse fossil assemblages including plants (containing spores and pollen), bivalves and insects. However, the Late Triassic palaeoecological variations are still poorly documented in this region. Here we present results from a palynological study from the Upper Triassic Xujiahe Formation in Hechuan of Chongqing, southern Sichuan Basin. The palynological analysis revealed a well-preserved terrestrial palynoflora of high diversity, comprising 184 species in 75 genera of spores and pollen. Three palynological assemblages were recognized, reflecting terrestrial successions throughout the entire interval with significant changes in the vegetation. Cycads/bennettites/ginkgophytes and conifers show an increasing trend into younger deposits, while ferns and lycopsids decrease in relative abundance. The Late Triassic vegetation underwent changes from lowland fern forest to a mixed forest with more canopy trees. We applied the Spore-pollen Morphological Group (SMG) method and Sporomorph EcoGroup (SEG) model to interpret the palaeoclimate features. The results reveal that the lower part of the Xujiahe Formation was deposited under relatively warm and humid conditions with an overall cooling and drying trend from latest Norian to Rhaetian time, accompanied by a general decrease of ferns and simultaneous increase of gymnosperms, and a decline in diversity of miospores. This study presents data on variations within the terrestrial ecosystem prior to the end-Triassic extinction event in the Sichuan Basin, and therefore provides important information for understanding the changes in the vegetation preceding the end-Triassic event.

The Guadalupian mass extinction took place during the major global environmental changes during Phanerozoic time. Large-scale sea-level fluctuations and a negative shift of δ13C were associated with this crisis. However, the diagenetic or primary origin of the decreased δ13C across the Guadalupian–Lopingian (G–L) boundary and the potential causes for this biotic crisis are still being intensely debated. Integrated analyses, including detailed petrographic examination, identification of foraminifer and fusulinid genera, and analysis of carbonate δ13Ccarb and bulk δ13Corg across the G–L boundary were therefore carried out at Tianfengping, Hubei Province, South China. Our results show that: (1) some foraminifer and most fusulinid genera disappear in the upper Maokou Formation (upper Guadalupian); (2) the negative shift of δ13Ccarb in the uppermost Maokou Formation is of diagenetic origin, but the values of δ13Ccarb in the remainder of the Maokou Formation and in the Wuchiaping Formation represent a primary signal of coeval seawater; and (3) the bulk δ13Corg perturbation across the G–L boundary at Tianfengping is mainly controlled by organic matter (OM) source, that is, terrestrial OM contribution. We suggest that the δ13Ccarb negative shift in the lower Wuchiaping Formation (Wuchiapingian) compared to that in the lower–middle Maokou Formation (Capitanian) were probably caused by the re-oxidization of 12C-rich OM during regression. Global regression resulted in the negative shift of δ13Ccarb at the G–L boundary in South China and led to the loss of shallow-marine benthic habitat. Large-scale global regression is probably one of the main causes for this bio-crisis.

The end-Permian (c. 252 Ma) and end-Triassic (c. 201 Ma) mass-extinction events are commonly linked to the emplacement of the large igneous provinces of the Siberia Traps and Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, respectively. Accordingly, scenarios for both extinctions are increasingly convergent and cross-fertilization of ideas has become important. Here, we present a synthesis of extinction scenarios based on a critical assessment of the available palaeontological, sedimentological, geochemical and geophysical evidence. How similar were the extinction events, what gaps exist in our understanding and how can a comparison of the events enhance our understanding of each event individually? Our focus is on the most important proximate kill mechanisms including: climate change and atmospheric pollution; increased soil erosion, weathering and runoff; forest dieback and the spread of pathogens; and ocean temperature changes, anoxia and acidification. There is substantial evidence to suggest that very similar kill mechanisms acted upon late Permian as well as Late Triassic ecosystems, strengthening the hypothesis that the ultimate causes of the mass-extinction events were similar.

From 1989 to 1994 a series of papers outlined evidence for a brief episode of climate change from arid to humid, and then back to arid, during the Carnian Stage of the late Triassic Epoch. This time of climate change was compared to marine and terrestrial biotic changes, mainly extinction and then radiation of flora and fauna. Subsequently termed, albeit incorrectly, the Carnian Pluvial Event (CPE) by successive authors, interest in this episode of climatic change has increased steadily, with new evidence being published as well as several challenges to the theory. The exact nature of this humid episode, whether reflecting widespread precipitation or more local effects, as well as its ultimate cause, remains equivocal. Bed-by-bed sampling of the Carnian in the Southern Alps (Dolomites) shows the episode began with a negative carbon isotope excursion that lasted for only part of one ammonoid zone (A. austriacum). However, that the Carnian Humid Episode represents a significantly longer period, both environmentally and biotically, is irrefutable. The evidence is strongest in the European, Middle Eastern, Himalayan, North American and Japanese successions, but not always so clear in South America, Antarctica and Australia. The eruption of the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province and global warming (causing increased evaporation in the Tethyan and Panthalassic oceans) are suggested as causes for the humid episode.

Tony Hallam's contributions to mass extinction studies span more than 50 years and this thematic issue provides an opportunity to pay tribute to the many pioneering contributions he has made to this field. Early work (1961) on the Jurassic in Europe revealed a link, during the Toarcian Stage, between extinction and the spread of anoxic waters during transgression – the first time such a common leitmotif had been identified. He also identified substantial sea-level changes during other mass extinction intervals with either regression (end-Triassic) or early transgression (end-Permian) coinciding with the extinction phases. Hallam's (1981) study on bivalves was also the first to elevate the status of the end-Triassic crisis and place it amongst true mass extinctions, changing previous perceptions that it was a part of a protracted period of turnover, although debates on the duration of this crisis continue (Hallam, 2002). Conflicting views on the nature of recovery from mass extinctions have also developed, especially for the aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction. These discussions can be traced to Hallam's seminal 1991 paper that noted the considerable delay in benthic recovery during Early Triassic time and attributed it to the persistence of the harmful, high-stress conditions responsible for the extinction itself. This idea now forms the cornerstone of one of the more favoured explanations for this ultra-low diversity interval.

Historical records of mosasaur discoveries in the Hornerstown Formation of the Atlantic Coastal Plain of New Jersey (USA) are reviewed in the light of recent geochemical and biostratigraphic investigations. The highest (i.e. youngest) mosasaur remains are from the basal Hornerstown Formation fossil assemblage, a widespread concentration of vertebrate and invertebrate remains that coincides with an iridium excursion and the micropalaeontological K/Pg boundary. Most of the mosasaur specimens from this horizon are single elements, but at least one specimen from the Hornerstown Formation, YPM 773, is a multi-element specimen, a skull with vertebrae. This specimen is a very large individual of Mosasaurus hoffmanni from the West Jersey Marl Company works at Barnsboro, New Jersey. It represents the stratigraphically highest multi-element articulated specimen in the K/Pg section here. In and above the basal Hornerstown, the fauna is dominated by crocodylians, lamnid sharks and chelonians. The extinction of mosasaurs created a vacant ecological niche at the top of the marine food web, and a trophic cascade of smaller predators ensued. Later in the Neogene the appearance of Elvis taxa archaeocetes such as Basilosaurus converged on mosasaur body shape.

The deliberate introduction of the rosy wolf snail Euglandina rosea to the Society Islands in the 1970s led to the mass extirpation of its rich Partulidae (Pilsbry, 1900) fauna, comprising approximately half of all species in this Pacific island tree snail family. On Tahiti ongoing field surveys have documented the survival of two of seven endemic species of Partula (P. hyalina and/or P. clara) in 38 valleys. E. rosea is now a potent extinction agent across Oceania and determining the factors enabling these two taxa to endure may have wide conservation import. We hypothesized that P. hyalina and P. clara have survived because they were the most abundant and/or widespread species and that they will eventually become extinct. We lack demographic data contemporaneous with predator introduction, but an early 20th century study by H.E. Crampton provides historical demographic data for intact Tahitian partulid populations. Crampton found that P. clara and P. hyalina, although widespread, were consistently rarer than their now-extirpated congeners, including in the 23 valleys he surveyed that retain surviving populations. Given this result, and the recent finding that P. clara and P. hyalina comprise a discrete founding lineage in Tahiti, it is plausible that some shared biological attribute(s) may have contributed to their survival. Crampton recorded the clutch sizes of thousands of gravid Tahitian partulids and found that these two taxa had higher instantaneous mean clutch sizes than did co-occurring congeners. Higher fecundities may have contributed to the survival of P. hyalina and P. clara in the valleys of Tahiti.

Despite tremendous interest in the topic and decades of research, the origins of the major losses of biodiversity in the history of life on Earth remain elusive. A variety of possible causes for these mass-extinction events have been investigated, including impacts of asteroids or comets, large-scale volcanic eruptions, effects from changes in the distribution of continents caused by plate tectonics, and biological factors, to name but a few. Many of these suggested drivers involve or indeed require changes of Earth's climate, which then affect the biosphere of our planet, causing a global reduction in the diversity of biological species. It can be argued, therefore, that a detailed understanding of these climatic variations and their effects on ecosystems are prerequisites for a solution to the enigma of biological extinctions. Apart from investigations of the paleoclimate data of the time periods of mass extinctions, climate-modelling experiments should be able to shed some light on these dramatic events. Somewhat surprisingly, however, only a few comprehensive modelling studies of the climate changes associated with extinction events have been undertaken. These studies will be reviewed in this paper. Furthermore, the role of modelling in extinction research in general and suggestions for future research are discussed.