Until the early twentieth century, populations on many Pacific Islands had never experienced measles. As travel to the Pacific Islands by Europeans became more common, the arrival of measles and other pathogens had devastating consequences. In 1911, Rotuma in Fiji was hit by a measles epidemic, which killed 13% of the island population. Detailed records show two mortality peaks, with individuals reported as dying solely from measles in the first and from measles and diarrhoea in the second. Measles is known to disrupt immune system function. Here, we investigate whether the pattern of mortality on Rotuma in 1911 was a consequence of the immunosuppressive effects of measles. We use a compartmental model to simulate measles infection and immunosuppression. Whilst immunosuppressed, we assume that individuals are vulnerable to dysfunctional reactions triggered by either (i) a newly introduced infectious agent arriving at the same time as measles or (ii) microbes already present in the population in a pre-existing equilibrium state. We show that both forms of the immunosuppression model provide a plausible fit to the data and that the inclusion of immunosuppression in the model leads to more realistic estimates of measles epidemiological parameters than when immunosuppression is not included.

In Beijing, the capital of China, routine measles mass vaccination has been in place for decades with high coverage; and since the 2000s, catch-up vaccination programmes have been implemented for migrant workers coming to the city. However, measles epidemics in Beijing persisted. Here, we explored the contributing factors of persistent measles transmission in Beijing using an epidemic model in conjunction with a particle filter. Model inputs included data on birth, death, migration, and vaccination. We formulated a series of hypotheses covering the impact of migrant influx, early waning of maternal immunity, and increased mixing among infants; we compared the plausibility of the hypotheses based on model fit to age-grouped, weekly measles incidence data from January 2005 to December 2014, and out-of-fit prediction during 2015–2019. Our best models showed close agreement with the data, and the out-of-fit prediction generally captured the trend of measles incidence from 2015 to 2019. We found that large influx of migrants with considerably higher susceptibility likely contributed to the persistent measles transmission in Beijing. Our findings suggest that stronger catch-up vaccination programmes for migrants may help eliminate measles transmission in Beijing.

A testing rate for measles above 80% is required by the WHO European Region Measles Elimination strategy to verify elimination. To comply with this rate, we explored factors associated with the return of oral fluid kits (OFK) by suspected measles cases. We described the cases and conducted a mixed-effects analysis to assess the relationship between socio-demographic and public health management characteristics and the likelihood of returning an OFK to the reference laboratory. Of 3,929 cases who were sent a postal OFK, 2,513 (67%) returned the kit. Adjusting for confounding, registration with a general practitioner (GP) (aOR:1.48, 95%CI:1.23–1.76) and living in a less deprived area (aOR:1.35, 95%CI:1.04–1.74) were associated with an increased likelihood of returning the OFK. The odds of returning the OFK also increased if the HPT contacted the parents/guardians of all cases prior to sending the kit and confirmed their address (aOR:2.01, 95%CI:1.17–3.42). Cases notified by a hospital (aOR:1.94, 95%CI:1.31–2.87) or GP (aOR:1.52; 95%CI:1.06–2.16) also had higher odds of returning the OFK. HPTs may want to consider these factors when managing suspected cases of measles since this may help in increasing the testing rates to the WHO-recommended level.

We describe and analyse an outbreak of measles that affected Belgium early 2017. In total, 289 cases were reported, mostly (53%) in people 15 years or older. For 133 (46%) vaccination status was unknown and a further 117 (41%) were not vaccinated. According to national guidelines, 83 of the unvaccinated cases (29% of total cases) should have received minimum one dose of vaccine, but did not. One in five cases (21%) did not present with the classical triad of fever, rash and any of coryza, conjunctivitis or cough. Rash was the most sensitive symptom, being absent in only six cases. A large proportion of cases (125/289, 43%) required hospitalisation. In hospitalised patients, the most commonly observed complications were hepatic disorders (present in 58/125 hospitalised patients, 46%). Thirty-six of the cases (12%) were in healthcare workers and nosocomial spread contributed importantly to the outbreak. Older age at presentation, altered clinical presentations and presence of complications like hepatitis can delay the correct diagnosis of measles. Clinicians should maintain a high index of suspicion in any individual presenting with rash. If the elimination target is to be reached, catch-up vaccination campaigns should be intensified and target young adults and health care workers.

As part of the evaluation of the French plan for the elimination of measles and rubella, we conducted a seroprevalence survey in 2013, aimed at updating seroprevalence data for people 18–32 years old. A secondary objective was to estimate measles incidence in this population during the 2009–2011 outbreak, and thus estimate the exhaustiveness of measles mandatory reporting. We used a cross-sectional survey design, targeting blood donors 18–32 years old, living in France since 2009, who came to give blood in a blood collecting site. We included 4647 people in metropolitan France, 806 people in Réunion Island and 496 in the French Caribbean. A further 3942 individuals were interviewed in the south-east region of metropolitan France to estimate the exhaustiveness of measles mandatory reporting. One of the main findings of this survey is that the proportion of people 18–32 years old susceptible to both measles and rubella infections remained high in France in 2013, 9.2% and 5.4%, respectively, in metropolitan France, even after the promotion campaigns about vaccination catch-up during and following the major measles epidemic in 2009–2011. Applying our results to French census data would suggest that around 1 million people aged 18–32 years old are currently susceptible to measles in France, despite this age group being one of the vaccination targets of the national measles elimination plan. Another important finding is that only an estimated 45% of the true number of cases in this age group was actually notified, despite notification being mandatory.

In 2017, Italy experienced a large measles epidemic with 5408 cases and four deaths. As Subnational Reference Laboratory of the Measles and Rubella surveillance NETwork (MoRoNET), the EpiSoMI (Epidemiology and Molecular Surveillance of Infections) Laboratory (University of Milan) set up rapid and active surveillance for the complete characterisation of the Measles virus (Mv) responsible for the large measles outbreak in Milan and surrounding areas (Lombardy, Northern Italy). The aims of this study were to describe the genetic profile of circulating viruses and to track the pathway of measles transmission. Molecular analysis was performed by sequencing the highly variable 450 nucleotides region of the N gene (N-450) of Mv genome. Two-hundred and ninety-nine strains of Mv were analysed. The phylogenetic analysis showed five different variants, two not previously described in the studied area, belonging to D8 and B3 genotypes. Three events of continuous transmission of autochthonous variants (D8-Osaka, D8-London and B3-Milan variants) and two events of continuous transmission of imported variants (B3-Dublin and D8-Hulu Langat) tracked five different transmission pathways. These pathways outlined two epidemic peaks: the first in April and the second in July 2017. The correlation between Mv variant and the epidemiological data may enable us to identify the sources of virus importation and recognise long-lasting virus transmission pathways.

Measles is a target for elimination in all six WHO regions by 2020, and over the last decade, there has been considerable progress towards this goal. Surveillance is recognised as a cornerstone of elimination programmes, allowing early identification of outbreaks, thus enabling control and preventing re-emergence. Fever–rash surveillance is increasingly available across WHO regions, and this symptom-based reporting is broadly used for measles surveillance. However, as measles control increases, symptom-based cases are increasingly likely to reflect infection with other diseases with similar symptoms such as rubella, which affects the same populations, and can have a similar seasonality. The WHO recommends that cases from suspected measles outbreaks be laboratory-confirmed, to identify ‘true’ cases, corresponding to measles IgM titres exceeding a threshold indicative of infection. Although serological testing for IgM has been integrated into the fever–rash surveillance systems in many countries, the logistics of sending in every suspected case are often beyond the health system's capacity. We show how age data from serologically confirmed cases can be leveraged to infer the status of non-tested samples, thus strengthening the information we can extract from symptom-based surveillance. Applying an age-specific confirmation model to data from three countries with divergent epidemiology across Africa, we identify the proportion of cases that need to be serologically tested to achieve target levels of accuracy in estimated infected numbers and discuss how this varies depending on the epidemiological context. Our analysis provides an approach to refining estimates of incidence leveraging all available data, which has the potential to improve allocation of resources, and thus contribute to rapid and efficient control of outbreaks.

Measles is a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world. Estimates of the case-fatality rate (CFR) of measles have varied widely from place to place, as well as in the same location over time. Amongst populations that have experienced famine or armed conflict, measles CFR can be especially high, although past work has mostly focused on refugee populations. Here, we estimate measles CFR between 1970 and 1991 in a rural region of Bangladesh, which experienced civil war and famine in the 1970s. We use historical measles mortality data and a mechanistic model of measles transmission to estimate the CFR of measles. We first demonstrate the ability of this model to recover the CFR in the absence of incidence data, using simulated mortality data. Our method produces CFR estimates that correspond closely to independent estimates from surveillance data and we can capture both the magnitude and the change in CFR suggested by these previous estimates. We use this method to quantify the sharp increase in CFR that resulted in a large number of deaths during a measles outbreak in the region in 1976. Most of the children who died during this outbreak were born during a famine in 1974, or in the 2 years preceding the famine. Our results suggest that the period of turmoil during and after the 1971 war and the sustained effects of the famine, is likely to have contributed to the high fatality burden of the 1976 measles outbreak in Matlab.

As endemic measles is eliminated through immunization, countries must determine the risk factors for the importation of measles into highly immunized populations to target control measures. Despite eliminating endemic measles, New Zealand suffers from outbreaks after introductions from abroad, enabling us to use it as a model for measles introduction risk. We used a generalized linear model to analyze risk factors for 1137 measles cases from 2007 to June 2014, provide estimates of national immunity levels, and model measles importation risk. People of European ethnicity made up the majority of measles cases. Age is a positive risk factor, particularly 0–2-year-olds and 5–17-year-old Europeans, along with increased wealth. Pacific islanders were also at greater risk, but due to 0–2-year-old cases. Despite recent high measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine immunization coverage, overall population immunity against measles remains ~90% and is lower in people born between 1982 and 2005. Greatest measles importation risk is during December, and countries predicted to be sources have historical connections and highest travel rates (Australia and UK), followed by Asian countries with high travel rates and higher measles incidences. Our results suggest measles importation due to travel is seeding measles outbreaks, and immunization levels are insufficient to continue to prevent outbreaks because of heterogeneous immunity in the population, leaving particular age groups at risk.

Measles was eliminated in the Americas in 2002 by a combination of routine immunizations and supplementary immunization activities. Recent outbreaks underscore the importance of reconsidering vaccine policy in order to maintain elimination. We constructed an age-structured dynamical model for the distribution of immunity in a population with routine immunization and without disease, and analysed the steady state for an idealized age structure and for real age structures of countries in the Americas. We compared the level of immunity maintained by current policy in these countries to the level maintainable by an optimal policy. The optimal age target for the first routine dose of measles vaccine depends on the timing and coverage of both doses. Similarly, the optimal age target for the second dose of measles vaccine depends on the timing and coverage of the first dose. The age targets for the first and second doses of measles vaccine should be adjusted for the post-elimination era, by specifically accounting for current context, including realized coverage of both doses, and altered maternal immunity. Doing so can greatly improve the proportion immune within a population, and therefore the chances of maintaining measles elimination, without changing coverage.

A measles outbreak occurred in a school in a small town in the South East of Ireland in September–November 2013. Most (and all early) cases had one dose of the measles-mumps- rubella (MMR) vaccination. All suspected cases were followed up, in order to advise on sampling and provide public health advice to them and their contacts. MMR vaccination control measures were instituted in the town. These included early second MMR in primary schools and childcare facilities, bringing forward the planned school MMR catch-up programme, early first MMR dose for children aged 6–12 months and targeted advice to unvaccinated children. There were 20 cases (17 confirmed) of measles associated with the outbreak. Fifteen cases occurred in the index school, with four in pre-school-age children (<4 years) who had clear epidemiological links with children at the school. This was a well-circumscribed outbreak occurring, unusually, in a well-vaccinated population. The outbreak came late to the attention of Department of Public Health staff but prompt action, once notified, and institution of control measures resulted in quick termination of the outbreak and prevention of cases in a neighbouring city.

Suboptimal uptake of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine by certain socioeconomic groups may have contributed to recent large measles outbreaks in the UK. We investigated whether socioeconomic deprivation was associated with MMR vaccine uptake over 16 years. Using immunization data for 72 351 children born between 1995 and 2012 in Liverpool, UK, we examined trends in vaccination uptake. Generalized linear models were constructed to examine the relative effect of socioeconomic deprivation and year of birth on MMR uptake. Uptake of MMR1 by age 24 months ranged between 82·5% in 2003 [95% confidence interval (CI) 81·2–83·7] and 93·4% in 2012 (95% CI 92·7–94·2). Uptake of MMR2 by age 60 months ranged between 65·3% (95% CI 64·4–67·4) in 2006 and 90·3% (95% CI 89·4–91·2) in 2012. In analysis adjusted for year of birth and sex, children in the most deprived communities were at significantly greater risk of not receiving MMR1 [risk ratio (RR) 1·70, 95% CI 1·45–1·99] and MMR2 (RR 1·36, 95% CI 1·22–1·52). Higher unemployment and lower household income were significantly associated with low uptake. Contrary to concerns about lower MMR uptake in affluent families, over 16 years, children from the most socioeconomically deprived communities have consistently had the lowest MMR uptake. Targeted catch-up campaigns and strategies to improve routine immunization uptake in deprived areas are needed to minimize the risk of future measles outbreaks.

Measles mortality fell prior to the introduction of vaccines or antibiotics. By examining historical mortality reports we sought to determine how much measles mortality was due to epidemiological factors such as isolation from major population centres or increased age at time of infection. Age-specific records were available from Aberdeen; Scotland; New Zealand and the states of Australia at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th centuries. Despite the relative isolation of Australia, measles mortality was concentrated in very young children similar to Aberdeen. In the more isolated states of Tasmania, Western Australia and Queensland adults made up 14–15% of measles deaths as opposed to 8–9% in Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales. Mortality in Iceland and Faroe Islands during the 1846 measles epidemic was used as an example of islands isolated from respiratory pathogens. The transition from crisis mortality across all ages to deaths concentrated in young children occurred prior to the earliest age-specific mortality data collected. Factors in addition to adult age of infection and epidemiological isolation such as nutritional status and viral virulence may have contributed to measles mortality outcomes a century ago.

Significant gaps in immunity to polio, measles, and rubella may exist in adults in Cambodia and threaten vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) elimination and control goals, despite high childhood vaccination coverage. We conducted a nationwide serological survey during November–December 2012 of 2154 women aged 15–39 years to assess immunity to polio, measles, and rubella and to estimate congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) incidence. Measles and rubella antibodies were detected by IgG ELISA and polio antibodies by microneutralization testing. Age-structured catalytic models were fitted to rubella serological data to predict CRS cases. Overall, 29·8% of women lacked immunity to at least one poliovirus (PV); seroprevalence to PV1, PV2 and PV3 was 85·9%, 93·4% and 83·3%, respectively. Rubella and measles antibody seroprevalence was 73·3% and 95·9%, respectively. In the 15–19 years age group, 48·2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 42·4–54·1] were susceptible to either PV1 or PV3, and 40·3% (95% CI 33·0–47·5) to rubella virus. Based on rubella antibody seroprevalence, we estimate that >600 infants are born with CRS in Cambodia annually. Significant numbers of Cambodian women are still susceptible to polio and rubella, especially those aged 15–19 years, emphasizing the need to include adults in VPD surveillance and a potential role for vaccination strategies targeted at adults.

Measles vaccination is estimated to have averted 13·8 million deaths between 2000 and 2012. Persisting heterogeneity in coverage is a major contributor to continued measles mortality, and a barrier to measles elimination and introduction of rubella-containing vaccine. Our objective is to identify determinants of inequities in coverage, and how vaccine delivery must change to achieve elimination goals, which is a focus of the WHO Decade of Vaccines. We combined estimates of travel time to the nearest urban centre (⩾50 000 people) with vaccination data from Demographic Health Surveys to assess how remoteness affects coverage in 26 African countries. Building on a statistical mapping of coverage against age and geographical isolation, we quantified how modifying the rate and age range of vaccine delivery affects national coverage. Our scenario analysis considers increasing the rate of delivery of routine vaccination, increasing the target age range of routine vaccination, and enhanced delivery to remote areas. Geographical isolation plays a key role in defining vaccine inequity, with greater inequity in countries with lower measles vaccine coverage. Eliminating geographical inequities alone will not achieve thresholds for herd immunity, indicating that changes in delivery rate or age range of routine vaccination will be required. Measles vaccine coverage remains far below targets for herd immunity in many countries on the African continent and is likely to be inadequate for achieving rubella elimination. The impact of strategies such as increasing the upper age range eligible for routine vaccination should be considered.

Since measles is a highly contagious respiratory infection with significant airborne transmission risk in hospitals, effective prevention measures are crucial. After a mother accompanying her child on a paediatric ward lacking a negative pressure room was diagnosed with measles, exposed persons without evidence of immunity (documentary evidence of receiving two doses of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine) were treated with vaccination or intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG). The interruption of transmission with these treatments was evaluated. There were 44 children and 101 adults exposed to the index patient. Twenty-five children and 88 adults were considered immune, providing evidence of immunity. Nineteen children and 13 adults were either given vaccination or IVIG for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). There were no additional cases of measles after 3 weeks follow-up. We conclude that measles is highly preventable by adequate PEP with vaccination or IVIG in a healthcare setting that lacks the benefit of a negative pressure room.

Setting priorities in the field of infectious diseases requires evidence-based and robust baseline estimates of disease burden. Therefore, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control initiated the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project. The project uses an incidence- and pathogen-based approach to measure the impact of both acute illness and sequelae of infectious diseases expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). This study presents first estimates of disease burden for four pathogens in Germany. The number of reported incident cases adjusted for underestimation served as model input. For the study period 2005–2007, the average disease burden was estimated at 33 116 DALYs/year for influenza virus, 19 115 DALYs/year for Salmonella spp., 8708 DALYs/year for hepatitis B virus and 740 DALYs/year for measles virus. This methodology highlights the importance of sequelae, particularly for hepatitis B and salmonellosis, because if omitted, the burden would have been underestimated by 98% and 56%, respectively.

Our aim was to assess progress towards measles elimination from The Netherlands by studying humoral measles immunity in the Dutch population. A population-based seroepidemiological study was conducted in 2006–2007 (N = 7900). Serum samples were analysed by a bead-based multiplex immunoassay. IgG levels ⩾0·2 IU/ml were considered protective. The overall seroprevalence in the Dutch population was 96%. However, 51% of socio-geographically clustered orthodox Protestant individuals aged <10 years were susceptible. Infants might be susceptible to measles between ages 4 months and 14 months, the age at which maternal antibodies have disappeared and the first measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccination is administered, respectively. Waning of antibody concentrations was slower after the second MMR vaccination than after the first. The Netherlands is at an imminent risk of a measles outbreak in the orthodox Protestant minority. To prevent subsequent transmission to the general population, efforts to protect susceptible age groups are needed.

This study examined the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of measles in Wenzhou, China. From 2000 to 2010, a total of 13271 measles cases were reported in Wenzhou, with epidemics occurring every 3-4 years. Forty-five per cent of the cases were aged <1 year and 27·2% were aged >14 years. Of 2262 hospitalized measles cases, 66·3% were diagnosed with pneumonia, and three cases died from respiratory failure. The number of measles cases of infants requiring hospitalization increased from birth to age 8 months and declined thereafter. Measurement of serum measles antibody levels in normal infants indicates that over 80% of infants in Wenzhou may be susceptible to measles by age 6 months. The existence of a sufficient pool of unvaccinated children and the decreased level of passively transferred measles antibodies in infants from vaccinated mothers contributed to the sustained transmission observed in Wenzhou.

We describe the largest outbreak of measles in Central and Eastern Cheshire (North West England) since the MMR vaccine was introduced in 1988, the majority of cases were not vaccinated and more than 20% of the cases belonged to the travelling community. Over 4 months, 147 clinical cases of measles were notified locally to the Cheshire & Merseyside Health Protection Unit (CMHPU). Of these, 67 (45·6%) were laboratory confirmed, 42 (28·6%) were negative, and one was equivocal, leaving 23 probable and 14 possible cases. The primary case was probably an 8-year-old unvaccinated travelling child, symptomatic on 1 October 2008. Measles spread locally and within school-aged children until early February 2009. Most of Central and Eastern Cheshire, including 23 educational institutions (playgroups, nurseries, primary schools, secondary schools, colleges), were affected, showing that there were enough susceptible/unvaccinated children to sustain an outbreak. Nearly a quarter of the confirmed cases (15/67, 22·4%) were aged <13 months and too young to be vaccinated under the UK immunization schedule. This outbreak is a reminder of the importance of achieving herd immunity to prevent spread and protect those at risk of severe illness or complications. There were no fatalities in this outbreak and no significant complications were reported.