We give upper bounds on the critical values for oriented percolation and some interacting particle systems by computing their behavior on small finite sets.

Let G be an infinite, locally finite, connected graph with bounded degree. We show that G supports phase transition in all or none of the following five models: bond percolation, site percolation, the Ising model, the Widom-Rowlinson model and the beach model. Some, but not all, of these implications hold without the bounded degree assumption. We finally give two examples of (random) unbounded degree graphs in which phase transition in all five models can be established: supercritical Galton-Watson trees, and Poisson-Voronoi tessellations of ℝd for d ≥ 2.

We introduce a model for the spreading of fake news in a community of size n. There are $j_n = \alpha n - g_n$ active gullible persons who are willing to believe and spread the fake news, the rest do not react to it. We address the question ‘How long does it take for $r = \rho n - h_n$ persons to become spreaders?’ (The perturbation functions $g_n$ and $h_n$ are o(n), and $0\le \rho \le \alpha\le 1$ .) The setup has a straightforward representation as a convolution of geometric random variables with quadratic probabilities. However, asymptotic distributions require delicate analysis that gives a somewhat surprising outcome. Normalized appropriately, the waiting time has three main phases: (a) away from the depletion of active gullible persons, when $0< \rho < \alpha$ , the normalized variable converges in distribution to a Gumbel random variable; (b) near depletion, when $0< \rho = \alpha$ , with $h_n - g_n \to \infty$ , the normalized variable also converges in distribution to a Gumbel random variable, but the centering function gains weight with increasing perturbations; (c) at almost complete depletion, when $r = j -c$ , for integer $c\ge 0$ , the normalized variable converges in distribution to a convolution of two independent generalized Gumbel random variables. The influence of various perturbation functions endows the three main phases with an infinite number of phase transitions at the seam lines.

Consider particles placed in space by a Poisson process. Pairs of particles are bonded together, independently of other pairs, with a probability that depends on their separation, leading to the formation of clusters of particles. We prove the existence of a non-trivial critical intensity at which percolation occurs (that is, an infinite cluster forms). We then prove the continuity of the cluster density, or free energy. Also, we derive a formula for the probability that an arbitrary Poisson particle lies in a cluster consisting of k particles (or equivalently, a formula for the density of such clusters), and show that at high Poisson intensity, the probability that an arbitrary Poisson particle is isolated, given that it lies in a finite cluster, approaches 1.

It is well known that, as n tends to ∞, the probability of satisfiability for a random 2-SAT formula on n variables, where each clause occurs independently with probability α / 2n, exhibits a sharp threshold at α = 1. We study a more general 2-SAT model in which each clause occurs independently but with probability αi / 2n, where i ∈ {0, 1, 2} is the number of positive literals in that clause. We generalize the branching process arguments used by Verhoeven (1999) to determine the satisfiability threshold for this model in terms of the maximum eigenvalue of the branching matrix.

Let U be the distribution function of the passage time of an individual bond of the square lattice, and let pT be the critical probability above which the expected size of the open component of the origin (in the usual bond percolation) is infinite. It is shown that if (∗)U(0–) = 0, U(0) < pT, then there exist constants 0 < a, C1 < ∞ such that a self-avoiding path of at least n steps starting at the origin and with passage time ≦ an} ≦ 2 exp (–C1n).

From this it follows that under (∗) the time constant μ (U) of first-passage percolation is strictly positive and that for each c > 0 lim sup (1/n)Nn(c) <∞, where Nn(c) is the maximal number of steps in the paths starting at the origin with passage time at most cn.

We introduce an idealised model for overland flow generated by rain falling on a hillslope. Our prime motivation is to show how the coalescence of runoff streams promotes the total generation of runoff. We show that, for our model, as the rate of rainfall increases in relation to the soil infiltration rate there is a distinct phase change. For low rainfall (the subcritical case) only the bottom of the hillslope contributes to the total overland runoff, while for high rainfall (the supercritical case) the whole slope contributes and the total runoff increases dramatically. We identify the critical point at which the phase change occurs, and show how it depends on the degree of coalescence. When there is no stream coalescence the critical point occurs when the rainfall rate equals the average infiltration rate, but when we allow coalescence the critical point occurs when the rainfall rate is less than the average infiltration rate, and increasing the amount of coalescence increases the total expected runoff.

We analyse features of the patterns formed from a simple model for a martensitic phase transition that fragments the unit square into rectangles. This is a fragmentation model that can be encoded by a general branching random walk. An important quantity is the distribution of the lengths of the interfaces in the pattern, and we establish limit theorems for some of the asymptotics of the interface profile. In particular, we are able to use a general branching process to show almost sure power law decay of the number of interfaces of at least a certain size and a general branching random walk to examine the numbers of rectangles of a certain aspect ratio. In doing so we extend a theorem on the growth of the general branching random walk as well as developing results on the tail behaviour of the limiting random variable in our general branching process.

We investigate spatial random graphs defined on the points of a Poisson process in d-dimensional space, which combine scale-free degree distributions and long-range effects. Every Poisson point is assigned an independent weight. Given the weight and position of the points, we form an edge between any pair of points independently with a probability depending on the two weights of the points and their distance. Preference is given to short edges and connections to vertices with large weights. We characterize the parameter regime where there is a non-trivial percolation phase transition and show that it depends not only on the power-law exponent of the degree distribution but also on a geometric model parameter. We apply this result to characterize robustness of age-based spatial preferential attachment networks.

Let $\mathcal{V}$ and $\mathcal{U}$ be the point sets of two independent homogeneous Poisson processes on $\mathbb{R}^d$. A graph $\mathcal{G}_\mathcal{V}$ with vertex set $\mathcal{V}$ is constructed by first connecting pairs of points (v, u) with $v\in\mathcal{V}$ and $u\in\mathcal{U}$ independently with probability $g(v-u)$, where g is a non-increasing radial function, and then connecting two points $v_1,v_2\in\mathcal{V}$ if and only if they have a joint neighbor $u\in\mathcal{U}$. This gives rise to a random intersection graph on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Local properties of the graph, including the degree distribution, are investigated and quantified in terms of the intensities of the underlying Poisson processes and the function g. Furthermore, the percolation properties of the graph are characterized and shown to differ depending on whether g has bounded or unbounded support.