Hostname: page-component-54dcc4c588-m259h Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-09-11T14:05:57.265Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forced Displacement and Asylum Policy in the Developing World

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 August 2021

Christopher W. Blair Open the ORCID record for Christopher W. Blair [Opens in a new window] ,
Guy Grossman Open the ORCID record for Guy Grossman [Opens in a new window]  and
Jeremy M. Weinstein Open the ORCID record for Jeremy M. Weinstein [Opens in a new window]
Get access

Abstract

Little theoretical or empirical work examines migration policy in the developing world. We develop and test a theory that distinguishes the drivers of policy reform and factors influencing the direction of reform. We introduce an original data set of de jure asylum and refugee policies covering more than ninety developing countries that are presently excluded from existing indices of migration policy. Examining descriptive trends in the data, we find that unlike in the global North, forced displacement policies in the global South have become more liberal over time. Empirically, we test the determinants of asylum policymaking, bolstering our quantitative results with qualitative evidence from interviews in Uganda. A number of key findings emerge. Intense, proximate civil wars are the primary impetus for asylum policy change in the global South. Liberalizing changes are made by regimes led by political elites whose ethnic kin confront discrimination or violence in neighboring countries. There is no generalizable evidence that developing countries liberalize asylum policy in exchange for economic assistance from Western actors. Distinct frameworks are needed to understand migration policymaking in developing versus developed countries.

Keywords

Forced displacementmigration policyglobal South

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 76 , Issue 2 , Spring 2022 , pp. 337 - 378
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation, 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Abdelaaty, Lamis Elmy. 2021. Discrimination and Delegation: Explaining State Responses to Refugees. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adamson, Fiona B., and Tsourapas, Gerasimos. 2020. The Migration State in the Global South: Nationalizing, Developmental, and Neoliberal Models of Migration Management. International Migration Review 54 (3):853–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adida, Claire L. 2014. Immigrant Exclusion and Insecurity in Africa: Coethnic Strangers. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, Easterly, William, and Matuszeski, Janina. 2011. Artificial States. Journal of the European Economic Association 9 (2):246–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arar, Rawan. 2017. The New Grand Compromise: How Syrian Refugees Changed the Stakes in the Global Refugee Assistance Regime. Middle East Law and Governance 7:298–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bearce, David H., and Hart, Andrew F.. 2017. International Labor Mobility and the Variety of Democratic Political Institutions. International Organization 71 (1):65–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beine, Michel, Boucher, Anna, Burgoon, Brian, Crock, Mary, Gest, Justin, Hiscox, Michael, McGovern, Patrick, Rapoport, Hillel, Schaper, Joep, and Thielemann, Eiko. 2016. Comparing Immigration Policies: An Overview from the IMPALA Database. International Migration Review 50 (4):827–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bermeo, Sarah Blodgett. 2016. Aid Is Not Oil: Donor Utility, Heterogeneous Aid, and the Aid-Democratization Relationship. International Organization 70 (1):1–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bermeo, Sarah Blodgett, and Leblang, David. 2015. Migration and Foreign Aid. International Organization 69 (3):627–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Betts, Alexander. 2011. Protection by Persuasion: International Cooperation in the Refugee Regime. Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Betts, Alexander, Bloom, Louise, Kaplan, Josiah David, and Omata, Naohiko. 2017. Refugee Economies: Forced Displacement and Development. Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Blair, Christopher W., Grossman, Guy, and Weinstein, Jeremy M.. Forthcoming. Liberal Displacement Policies Attract Forced Migrants in the Global South. American Political Science Review.Google Scholar
Blair, Christopher W., Horowitz, Michael C., and Potter, Philip B.K.. Forthcoming. Leadership Targeting and Militant Alliance Breakdown. Journal of Politics.Google Scholar
Boswell, Christina. 2003. The “External Dimension” of EU Immigration and Asylum Policy. International Affairs 79 (3):619–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boucher, Anna K., and Gest, Justin. 2018. Crossroads: Comparative Immigration Regimes in a World of Demographic Change. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., Boef, Suzanna De, and Joyce, Kyle A.. 2007. Event Dependence and Heterogeneity in Duration Models: The Conditional Frailty Model. Political Analysis 15 (3):237–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bubb, Ryan, Kremer, Michael, and Levine, David I.. 2011. The Economics of International Refugee Law. Journal of Legal Studies 40 (2):367–404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bulutgil, H. Zeynep. 2016. The Roots of Ethnic Cleansing in Europe. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Buhaug, Halvard. 2013. Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chandra, Kanchan. 2004. Why Ethnic Parties Succeed: Patronage and Ethnic Head Counts in India. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chaulia, Sreeram Sundar. 2003. The Politics of Refugee Hosting in Tanzania: From Open Door to Unsustainability, Insecurity, and Receding Receptivity. Journal of Refugee Studies 16 (2):147–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crisp, Jeff. 2010. Forced Displacement in Africa: Dimensions, Difficulties, and Policy Directions. Refugee Survey Quarterly 29 (3):1–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Czaika, Mathias. 2009. The Political Economy of Refugee Migration. Journal of Economics and Statistics 229 (6):803–21.Google Scholar
Dreher, Axel, Fuchs, Andreas, and Langlotz, Sarah. 2019. The Effects of Foreign Aid on Refugee Flows. European Economic Review 112:127–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Shaver, Andrew. 2020. Civil War Violence and Refugee Outflows. Unpublished paper. Stanford University.Google Scholar
FitzGerald, David Scott, and Cook-Martin, David. 2014. Culling the Masses: The Democratic Origins of Racist Immigration Policy in the Americas. Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freeman, Gary P. 1995. Modes of Immigration Politics in Liberal Democratic States. International Migration Review 29 (4):881–902.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Freibel, Guido, Gallego, Juan Miguel, and Mendola, Mariapia. 2013. Xenophobic Attacks, Migration Intentions, and Networks: Evidence from the South of Africa. Journal of Population Economics 26 (2):555–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gamso, Jonas, and Yuldashev, Farhod. 2018. Targeted Foreign Aid and International Migration: Is Development-Promotion an Effective Immigration Policy? International Studies Quarterly 62 (4):809–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gathmann, Christina, and Keller, Nicolas. 2018. Access to Citizenship and the Economic Assimilation of Immigrants. Economic Journal 128 (616):3141–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2007. Transnational Dimensions of Civil War. Journal of Peace Research 44 (3):293–309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldin, Claudia. 1994. The Political Economy of Immigration Restriction in the United States, 1890 to 1921. In The Regulated Economy: A Historical Approach to Political Economy, edited by Goldin, Claudia and Libecap, Gary D., 223–58. University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodman, Sarah Wallace. 2015. Conceptualizing and Measuring Citizenship and Integration Policy: Past Lessons and New Approaches. Comparative Political Studies 48 (14):1905–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greenhill, Kelly M. 2010. Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy. Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grogger, Jeffrey, and Hanson, Gordon H.. 2011. Income Maximization and the Selection and Sorting of International Migrants. Journal of Development Economics 95 (1):42–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haas, Hein de, Natter, Katharina, and Vezzoli, Simona. 2015. Conceptualizing and Measuring Migration Policy Change. Comparative Migration Studies 3 (1):1–21.Google ScholarPubMed
Hamlin, Rebecca. 2014. Let Me Be a Refugee: Administrative Justice and the Politics of Asylum in the United States, Canada, and Australia. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hanson, Gordon, and McIntosh, Craig. 2016. Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run. Journal of Economic Perspectives 30 (4):57–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hartigan, Kevin. 1992. Matching Humanitarian Norms with Cold, Hard Interests: The Making of Refugee Policies in Mexico and Honduras, 1980–89. International Organization 46 (3):709–30.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hatton, Timothy J. 2009. The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why? Journal of Economic Perspectives 30 (4):57–82.Google Scholar
Hatton, Timothy J. 2016. Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Policy in OECD Countries. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 106 (5):441–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hatton, Timothy J., and Williamson, Jeffrey G.. 2003. Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 105 (3):465–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helbling, Marc, Bjerre, Liv, Römer, Friederike, and Zobel, Malisa. 2017. Measuring Immigration Policies: The IMPIC Database. European Political Science 16 (1):79–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holland, Alisha C., and Peters, Margaret E.. 2020. Explaining Migration Timing: Political Information and Opportunities. International Organization 74 (3):560–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holland, Alisha C., Peters, Margaret E., and Sánchez, Thania. 2019. The Dignity of Humanitarian Migrants: Explaining Migrants’ Destination Preferences. Unpublished paper, Harvard University.Google Scholar
Hollifield, James F. 2004. The Emerging Migration State. International Migration Review 38 (3):885–912.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobsen, Karen. 1996. Factors Influencing the Policy Responses of Host Governments to Mass Refugee Influxes. International Migration Review 30 (3):655–78.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Karyotis, Georgios. 2007. European Migration Policy in the Aftermath of September 11: The Security-Migration Nexus. Innovation 20 (1):1–17.Google Scholar
Kreibaum, Merle. 2016. Their Suffering, Our Burden? How Congolese Refugees Affect the Ugandan Population. World Development 78:262–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lichtenheld, Adam G. 2020. Explaining Population Displacement Strategies in Civil Wars: A Cross-National Analysis. International Organization 74 (2):253–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lischer, Sarah Kenyon. 2005. Dangerous Sanctuaries: Refugee Camps, Civil War, and the Dilemmas of Humanitarian Aid. Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Loescher, Gil. 1996. Beyond Charity: International Cooperation and the Global Refugee Crisis. Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Makaryan, Shushanik, and Chobanyan, Haykanush. 2014. Institutionalization of Migration Policy Frameworks in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. International Migration 52 (5):52–67.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Massey, Douglas S., Arango, Joaquin, Hugo, Graeme, Kouaouci, Ali, Pellegrino, Adela, and Taylor, J. Edward. 1993. Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review 19 (3):431–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayda, Anna Maria. 2010. International Migration: A Panel Data Analysis of the Determinants of Bilateral Flows. Journal of Population Economics 23 (4):1249–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maystadt, Jean-François, Hirvonen, Kalle, Mabiso, Athur, and Vandercasteelen, Joachim. 2019. Impacts of Hosting Forced Migrants in Poor Countries. Annual Review of Resource Economics 11:439–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McNamee, Lachlan, and Zhang, Anna. 2019. Demographic Engineering and International Conflict: Evidence from China and the Former USSR. International Organization 73 (3):291–327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milner, James H.S. 2009. Refugees, the State and the Politics of Asylum in Africa. Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Munshi, Kaivan. 2003. Networks in the Modern Economy: Mexican Migrants in the US Labor Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (2):549–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mylonas, Harris. 2013. The Politics of Nation-Building: Making Co-nationals, Refugees, and Minorities. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mylonas, Harris, and Žilović, Marko. 2019. Foreign Policy Priorities and Ethnic Return Migration Policies: Group-Level Variation in Greece and Serbia. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 45 (4):613–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Natter, Katharina. 2018. Rethinking Immigration Policy Theory Beyond “Western Liberal Democracies.” Comparative Migration Studies 6 (4):1–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norman, Kelsey P. 2020. Reluctant Reception: Refugees, Migration and Governance in the Middle East and North Africa. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Okiror, Samuel. 2019. Key Donors Freeze Uganda Refugee Aid After UN Mismanagement Scandal. The New Humanitarian, 28 February.Google Scholar
Ortega, Francesc, and Peri, Giovanni. 2013. The Effect of Income and Immigration Policies on International Migration. Migration Studies 1 (1):47–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peters, Margaret E. 2017. Trading Barriers: Immigration and the Remaking of Globalization. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Pettersson, Therése, Högbladh, Stina, and Öberg, Magnus. 2019. Organized Violence, 1989–2018 and Peace Agreements. Journal of Peace Research 56 (4):589–603.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posner, Daniel N. 2005. Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rayp, Glenn, Ruyssen, Ilse, and Standaert, Samuel. 2017. Measuring and Explaining Cross-Country Immigration Policies. World Development 95:141–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rudolph, Christopher. 2003. Security and the Political Economy of International Migration. American Political Science Review 97 (4):603–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rüegger, Seraina. 2019. Refugees, Ethnic Power Relations, and Civil Conflict in the Country of Asylum. Journal of Peace Research 56 (1):42–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rüegger, Seraina, and Bohnet, Heidrun. 2018. The Ethnicity of Refugees (ER): A New Dataset for Understanding Flight Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science 35 (1):65–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salehyan, Idean. 2008. The Externalities of Civil Strife: Refugees as a Source of International Conflict. American Journal of Political Science 52 (4):787–801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salehyan, Idean, and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2006. Refugees and the Spread of Civil War. International Organization 60 (2):335–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Savun, Burcu, and Tirone, Daniel C.. 2012. Exogenous Shocks, Foreign Aid, and Civil War. International Organization 66 (3):363–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shin, Adrian J. 2019. Primary Resources, Secondary Labor: Natural Resources and Immigration Policy. International Studies Quarterly 63 (4):805–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sjolander, Arvid, and Martinussen, Torben. 2019. Instrumental Variable Estimation with the R Package ivtools. Epidemiologic Methods 8 (1):1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solano, Giacomo, and Huddleston, Thomas. 2020. Migrant Integration Policy Index. Technical report, Migration Policy Group.Google Scholar
Tsourapas, Gerasimos. 2019. The Syrian Refugee Crisis and Foreign Policy Decision-Making in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. Journal of Global Security Studies 4 (4):464–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. 2019. Global Trends in Forced Displacement in 2019. United Nations.Google Scholar
Vogt, Manuel, Bormann, Nils-Christian, Rüegger, Seraina, Cederman, Lars-Erik, Hunziker, Philipp, and Girardin, Luc. 2015. Integrating Data on Ethnicity, Geography, and Conflict: The Ethnic Power Relations Data Set Family. Journal of Conflict Resolution 59 (7):1327–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weiner, Myron. 1993. Security, Stability, and International Migration. International Security 17 (3):91–126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weiner, Myron. 1996. Bad Neighbors, Bad Neighborhoods: An Inquiry into the Causes of Refugee Flows. International Security 21 (1):5–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wellman, Elizabeth Iams. 2020. Emigrant Inclusion in Home Country Elections: Theory and Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. American Political Science Review 115 (1):82–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whitaker, Beth Elise. 2002. Refugees in Western Tanzania: The Distribution of Burdens and Benefits Among Local Hosts. Journal of Refugee Studies 15 (4):339–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zolberg, Aristide R., Suhrke, Astri, and Aguayo, Sergio. 1989. Escape from Violence: Conflict and the Refugee Crisis in the Developing World. Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Blair et al. Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/OB6FHX
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Blair et al. supplementary material

Blair et al. supplementary material

Download Blair et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 6.3 MB