Hostname: page-component-5b777bbd6c-kmmxp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-06-24T23:41:39.374Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Democratic Transitions, Institutional Strength, and War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 July 2003

Edward D. Mansfield  and
Jack Snyder
Get access

Abstract

The relationship between democratization and war has recently sparked a lively debate. We find that transitions from autocracy that become stalled prior to the establishment of coherent democratic institutions are especially likely to precipitate the onset of war. This tendency is heightened in countries where political institutions are weak and national officials are vested with little authority. These results accord with our argument that elites often employ nationalist rhetoric to mobilize support in the populist rivalries of the poorly-institutionalized democratizing state but then get caught up in the belligerent politics that this process eventually unleashes. In contrast, we find that transitions that quickly culminate in a fully coherent democracy are much less perilous. Further, our results refute the view that transitional democracies are merely the targets of attack due to their temporary weakness: in fact, they tend to be the initiators of war. We also refute the view that any regime change is likely to precipitate the outbreak of war: transitions toward democracy are significantly more likely to generate hostilities than transitions toward autocracy.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 56 , Issue 2 , Spring 2002 , pp. 297 - 337
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2002

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Adamson, Fiona B. 2001. Democratization and the Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy: Turkey in the 1974 Cyprus Crisis. Political Science Quarterly 116 (2):277–303.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, and Katz, Jonathan N.. 1997. The Analysis of Binary Time-Series-Cross-Section Data and/or the Democratic Peace. Paper presented at the 14th annual meeting of the Political Methodology Group, Columbus, Ohio.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, and Katz, Jonathan N.. 2001. Throwing Out the Baby with the Bath Water: A Comment on Green, Kim, and Yoon. International Organization 55 (2):487–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, and Tucker, Richard. 1996. Conflict in Space and Time: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. Paper presented at the 92nd Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco.Google Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott, and Stam, Allan C.. 1998. The Declining Advantages of Democracy: A Combined Model of War Outcomes and Duration. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42 (3):344–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bremer, Stuart A. 1980. National Capabilities and War Proneness. In The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, edited by Singer, J. David, 57–82. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Lalman, David. 1992. War and Reason: Domestic and International Imperatives. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burr, Robert N. 1965. By Reason or Force: Chile and the Balancing of Power in South America, 1830–1905. Berkeley: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, James W. Jr 2000. Threats and Promises: The Pursuit of International Influence. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Diamandouros, P. Nikiforos. 1986. Regime Change and the Prospects for Democracy in Greece: 1974–1983. In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Southern Europe, edited by O'Donnell, Guillermo, Schmitter, Philippe, and Whitehead, Laurence, 138–64. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Dixon, William J. 1994. Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict. American Political Science Review 88 (1): 14–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, George W., and Rocke, David M.. 1993. Conflict, Agency, and Gambling for Resurrection: The Principal-Agent Problem Goes to War. American Journal of Political Science 38 (2):362–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eksteins, Modris. 1975. The Limits of Reason: The German Democratic Press and the Collapse of Weimar Democracy. London: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Eley, Geoff. 1980. Reshaping the German Right. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Enterline, Andrew. 1996. Driving While Democratizing. International Security 20 (4):183–96.Google Scholar
Fairbain, Brett. 1997. Democracy in the Undemocratic State: The German Reichstag Elections of 1898 and 1903. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1994. Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review 88 (3):577–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Furet, François. 1981. Interpreting the French Revolution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian S., and Ward, Michael D.. 1997. Double Take: A Re-examination of Democracy and Autocracy in Modern Politics. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3):361–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gochman, Charles S., and Maoz, Zeev. 1984. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1976: Procedures, Patterns, and Insights. Journal of Conflict Resolution 28 (4):585–616.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goemans, Hein E. 2000. War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gowa, Joanne. 1999. Ballots and Bullets: The Elusive Democratic Peace. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Green, Donald P., Kim, Soo Yeon, and Yoon, David H.. 2001. Pool, Dirty. International Organization 55 (2):441–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greene, William H. 1993. Econometric Analysis. 2d ed. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1974. Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800–1971. American Political Science Review 68 (4): 1482–504.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1988. War, Revolution, and the Growth of the Coercive State. Comparative Political Studies 21 (1):45–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 2000. Peoples Versus States. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert, Jaggers, Keith, and Moore, Will H.. 1989. Polity II: Political Structures and Regime Change, 1800–1986. Study No. 9263. Ann Arbor, Mich.: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Iyob, Ruth. 1997. The Eritrean Experiment: A Cautious Pragmatism? Journal of Modern African Studies 35 (4):647–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jaggers, Keith, and Gurr, Ted Robert. 1995. Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data. Journal of Peace Research 32 (4):469–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, Daniel M., Bremer, Stuart A., and Singer, J. David. 1996. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (2):163–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary. 2001. Proper Nouns and Methodological Propriety: Pooling Dyads in International Relations Data. International Organization 55 (2):497–507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David A. 1992. Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War. American Political Science Review 86 (1):24–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, Jack S. 1989. The Causes of War: A Review of Theories and Evidence. In Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War. Vol. 1, edited by Tetlock, Philip E., Husbands, Jo L., Jervis, Robert, Stern, Paul C., and Tilly, Charles, 209–313. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack S., and Vakili, Lily. 1992. Diversionary Action by Authoritarian Regimes. In The Internationalization of Communal Strife, edited by Midlarsky, Manus, 118–46. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Linz, Juan, and Stepan, Alfred. 1996. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore, Md.: John Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D. 1994. Power, Trade, and War. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Snyder, Jack. 1995a. Democratization and the Danger of War. International Security 20 (1):5–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Snyder, Jack. 1995b. Democratization and War. Foreign Affairs 74 (3):79–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Snyder, Jack. 1996. The Effects of Democratization on War. International Security 20 (4): 196–207.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Snyder, Jack. 1997. Reply to Thompson and Tucker. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3):457–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Snyder, Jack. 2002. Incomplete Democratization and the Outbreak of Military Disputes. Unpublished manuscript, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Snyder, Jack. Forthcoming. Democratization and War. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maoz, Zeev. 1998. Realist and Cultural Critiques of the Democratic Peace: A Theoretical and Empirical Re-assessment. International Interactions 24 (1):3–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mares, David R. 2001. Violent Peace: Militarized Interstate Bargaining in Latin America. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo, and Schmitter, Philippe. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Oneal, John R., and Russett, Bruce M.. 1997. The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950–1985. International Studies Quarterly 41 (2):267–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Owen, John M. IV 1994. How Liberalism Produces the Democratic Peace. International Security 19 (2):87–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ray, James Lee. 2000. Democracy: On the Level(s), Does Democracy Correlate with Peace? In What Do We Know About War?, edited by Vasquez, John A., 299–316. Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Ray, James Lee, and Singer, J. David. 1973. Measuring the Concentration of Power in the International System. Sociological Methods and Research 1 (1):403–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan C.. 1998. Democracy, War Initiation, and Victory. American Political Science Review 92 (2):377–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Retallack, James. 1993. The Road to Philippi: The Conservative Party and Bethmann Hollweg's “Politics of the Diagonal,” 1909–1914. In Between Reform, Reaction, and Resistance: Studies in the History of German Conservatism from 1789 to 1945, edited by Jones, Larry Eugene and Retallack, James, 261–98. Providence, R.I.: Berg.Google Scholar
Ritter, Gerhard. 1969. The Sword and the Sceptre: The Problem of Militarism in Germany, Vol. 2. Coral Gables, Fla.: University of Miami Press.Google Scholar
Rousseau, David L., Gelpi, Christopher, Reiter, Dan, and Huth, Paul K.. 1996. Assessing the Dyadic Nature of the Democratic Peace, 1918–88. American Political Science Review 90 (3):512–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russett, Bruce, and Oneal, John R.. 2001. Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Sater, William F. 1986. Chile and the War of the Pacific. Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth. 1998. Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises. American Political Science Review 92 (4):829–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth. 1999. Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? International Organization 53 (2):233–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schweller, Randall. 1992. Domestic Structure and Preventive War: Are Democracies More Pacific? World Politics 44 (2):235–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart, and Stuckey, John. 1972. Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power Wars, 1820–1965. In Peace, War, and Numbers, edited by Russett, Bruce M., 37–74. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1993. National Material Capabilities Dataset. Study No. 9903. Ann Arbor, Mich.: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1994. Correlates of War Project: International and Civil War Data, 1816–1992. Study No. 9905. Ann Arbor, Mich.: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.Google Scholar
Siverson, Randolph M. 1995. Democracies and War Participation: In Defense of the Institutional Constraints Argument. European Journal of International Relations 1 (4):481–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Small, Melvin, and Singer, J. David. 1982. Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816–1980. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1996. Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems. International Studies Quarterly 40 (1):133–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snyder, Jack. 1991. Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Snyder, Jack. 2000. From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Stein, Arthur A. 1976. Conflict and Cohesion: A Review of the Literature. Journal of Conflict Resolution 20 (1): 143–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, Arthur A., and Russett, Bruce M.. 1980. Evaluating War: Outcomes and Consequences. In Handbook of Political Conflict: Theory and Research, edited by Gurr, Ted Robert, 399–422. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Thompson, William R., and Tucker, Richard M.. 1997. A Tale of Two Democratic Peace Critiques: The Hypothesized Bellicosity of Democratic Dyads and New Democratizing States. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3):428–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trovoll, Kjetil. 1999. Borders of Violence—Boundaries of Identity: Demarcating the Eritrean Nation-State. Ethnic and Racial Studies 22 (6):1037–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walt, Stephen M. 1996. Revolution and War. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Ward, Michael D., and Gleditsch, Kristian S.. 1998. Democratizing for Peace. American Political Science Review 92 (1):51–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wehler, Hans-Ulrich. 1985. The German Empire: 1871–1918. Dover, N.H.: Berg.Google Scholar
Zakaria, Fareed. 1997. The Rise of Illiberal Democracy. Foreign Affairs 76 (6):22–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar