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For different types of environmental conditions, the logarithmic changes in each concentration Xj, denoted by δXj(E), are proportional for almost all components, over a wide range of perturbations, where the proportionality coefficient is given by the ratio of change in cell growth rate δμ(E). Then consider the evolution after applied environmental changes. Let the change in log concentration be δXj(G) and the change in growth rate be δμ(G). The theory suggests that δX_j(G)/ δX_j(E)= δμ(G)/ δμ(E), as confirmed experimentally. With evolution, the right hand term gradually moves toward 0, accordingly the change in concentrations does. This is a process similar to the Le Chatelier principle of thermodynamics. The relationships described above arise because phenotypic changes due to environmental perturbations, noise, and genetic changes are constrained to a common low-dimensional manifold as a result of evolution. This is because the adapted state after evolution should be stable against a variety of perturbations, while phenotypes retain plasticity to change, in order to have evolvability. To achieve this dimensional reduction, there is a separation of a few slow modes in the dynamics for phenotypes. The variance of phenotypes due to noise and mutation is proportional over all phenotypes, leading to the possibility of predicting phenotypic evolution.
The other facet of adaptation, immutability or homeostasis, is discussed. Dynamical system models that buffer external changes in a few variables to suppress changes in other variables are presented. In this case, some variable makes a transient change depending on the environmental change before returning to the original state. This transient response is shown to obey fold-change detection (or Weber–Fechner law), in which the response rate by environmental changes depends only on how many times the environmental change is to the original value. As for the multicomponent cell model, a critical state in which the abundances of each component are inversely proportional to its rank is maintained as a homeostatic state even when the environmental condition is changed. In biological circadian clocks, the period of oscillation remains almost unchanged against changes in temperature (temperature compensation) or other environmental conditions. When several reactions involved in the cyclic change use a common enzyme, enzyme-limited competition results. This competition among substrates explains the temperature compensation mentioned above. In this case, the reciprocity between the period and the plasticity of biological clocks results.
This chapter presents an overview of the goals of universal biology. It is noted that biological systems are generally hierarchical as molecules-cells-organisms, where the components of each level are quite diverse. How such diversity arises and is maintained is discussed. We then discuss the possibility of understanding such biological systems with diverse components, and explore the possibility of macroscopic theory to reveal and formulate universal properties in living states, noting that robustness, plasticity, and activity are essential to life. Recalling the spirit (not the formulation) of thermodynamics, we explore the possibility of formulating a theory for characterizing universal properties in life, emphasizing macroscopic robustness at each level of the hierarchy and the importance of macro-micro consistency.
Consider the evolutionary process under fixed environmental conditions, where genetic change leads to phenotypic change, and fitness is given as a function of phenotype. In this case, the variance Vip of the fluctuation of the phenotype due to noise is proportional to the rate of evolution of the phenotype, termed as evolutionary fluctuation–response relationship. It then implies that Vip is proportional to Vg, the variance due to genetic variation, as derived theoretically under the assumption of evolutionary robustness: the acquisition of phenotypic robustness to noise through evolution also leads to robustness to genetic variation. Here, as the mutation rate increases (or the noise level in the dynamics decreases), a phenotypic error catastrophe occurs, where it is no longer possible to maintain the fit phenotype. While phenotypic variance and evolvability decrease under fixed environmental and fitness conditions, they rise and fall repeatedly as environmental conditions are varied over generations. Phenotypic plasticity and evolvability are maintained under environmental variation. Strong selection under fixed evolutionary conditions can lead to the appearance of mutants with increased phenotypic variance. This may be due to over-optimization to obtain the fit phenotype, which may break consistency with other processes and reduce robustness.
Chapter 8 focuses on statistical approaches to evaluate and quantify the stability and sensitivity of causal model selection. Stability analysis addresses questions concerning the robustness of DDA results against sample composition. DDA model selection can be considered robust when causal decisions are stable across replicates of the initial data. In contrast, DDA statistics can be expected to show considerable variability, when outliers and overly influential observations contaminate the data. Sensitivity analysis focuses on the robustness of DDA against hidden external influences. A Monte-Carlo based sensitivity algorithm is introduced that can be used to test the sensitivity of DDA against artificially induced hidden confounding. While robust causal models can be expected to be fairly immune against additional hidden confounding, competing causal models that are already affected by latent external factors tend to become indistinguishable even when a small amount of external confounding is added to the data. Simulated and real-world data examples are presented to illustrate stability and sensitivity approaches in the context of probing the causal direction of effects.
Scientific progress relies on reproducibility, replicability, and robustness of research outcomes. After briefly discussing these terms and their significance for reliable scientific discovery, we argue for the importance of investigating robustness of outcomes to experimental protocol variations. We highlight challenges in achieving robust, replicable results in multi-step plant science experiments, using split-root assays in Arabidopsis thaliana as a case study. These experiments are important for unraveling the contributions of local, systemic and long-distance signalling in plant responses and play a central role in nutrient foraging research. The complexity of these experiments allows for extensive variation in protocols. We investigate what variations do or do not result in similar outcomes and provide concrete recommendations for enhancing the replicability and robustness of these and other complex experiments by extending the level of detail in research protocols.
Machine learning has exhibited substantial success in the field of natural language processing (NLP). For example, large language models have empirically proven to be capable of producing text of high complexity and cohesion. However, at the same time, they are prone to inaccuracies and hallucinations. As these systems are increasingly integrated into real-world applications, ensuring their safety and reliability becomes a primary concern. There are safety critical contexts where such models must be robust to variability or attack and give guarantees over their output. Computer vision had pioneered the use of formal verification of neural networks for such scenarios and developed common verification standards and pipelines, leveraging precise formal reasoning about geometric properties of data manifolds. In contrast, NLP verification methods have only recently appeared in the literature. While presenting sophisticated algorithms in their own right, these papers have not yet crystallised into a common methodology. They are often light on the pragmatical issues of NLP verification, and the area remains fragmented. In this paper, we attempt to distil and evaluate general components of an NLP verification pipeline that emerges from the progress in the field to date. Our contributions are twofold. First, we propose a general methodology to analyse the effect of the embedding gap – a problem that refers to the discrepancy between verification of geometric subspaces, and the semantic meaning of sentences which the geometric subspaces are supposed to represent. We propose a number of practical NLP methods that can help to quantify the effects of the embedding gap. Second, we give a general method for training and verification of neural networks that leverages a more precise geometric estimation of semantic similarity of sentences in the embedding space and helps to overcome the effects of the embedding gap in practice.
The gift-exchange game is a form of sequential prisoner's dilemma, developed by Fehr et al. (1993), and popularized in a series of papers by Ernst Fehr and co-authors. While the European studies typically feature a high degree of gift exchange, the few U.S. studies provide some conflicting results. We find that the degree of gift exchange is surprisingly sensitive to an apparently innocuous change—whether or not a comprehensive payoff table is provided in the instructions. We also find significant and substantial time trends in responder behavior.
Coordination games with Pareto-ranked equilibria have attracted major attention over the past two decades. Two early path-breaking sets of experimental studies were widely interpreted as suggesting that coordination failure is a common phenomenon in the laboratory. We identify the major determinants that seem to affect the incidence, and/or emergence, of coordination failure in the lab and review critically the existing experimental studies on coordination games with Pareto-ranked equilibria since that early evidence emerged. We conclude that there are many ways to engineer coordination successes.
Random effects meta-analysis model is an important tool for integrating results from multiple independent studies. However, the standard model is based on the assumption of normal distributions for both random effects and within-study errors, making it susceptible to outlying studies. Although robust modeling using the t distribution is an appealing idea, the existing work, that explores the use of the t distribution only for random effects, involves complicated numerical integration and numerical optimization. In this article, a novel robust meta-analysis model using the t distribution is proposed (tMeta). The novelty is that the marginal distribution of the effect size in tMeta follows the t distribution, enabling that tMeta can simultaneously accommodate and detect outlying studies in a simple and adaptive manner. A simple and fast EM-type algorithm is developed for maximum likelihood estimation. Due to the mathematical tractability of the t distribution, tMeta frees from numerical integration and allows for efficient optimization. Experiments on real data demonstrate that tMeta is compared favorably with related competitors in situations involving mild outliers. Moreover, in the presence of gross outliers, while related competitors may fail, tMeta continues to perform consistently and robustly.
A dataset does not speak for itself, and model assumptions can drive results just as much as the data. Limited transparency about model assumptions creates a problem of asymmetric information between analyst and reader. This chapter shows how we need better methods for robust results.
Multiverse analysis is not simply a computational method but also a philosophy of science. In this chapter we explore its core tenets and historical foundations. We discuss the foundational principle of transparency in the history of science and argue that multiverse analysis brings social science back into alignment with this core founding ideal. We make connections between this framework and multiverse concepts developed in cosmology and quantum physics.
This chapter advocates a simple principle: Good analysis should be easier to publish than bad analysis. Multiverse methods promote transparency over asymmetric information and emphasize robustness, countering the fragility inherent in single-path analysis. In an era when the credibility of scientific results is often challenged, the use of multiverse analysis is crucial for bolstering both the credibility and persuasiveness of research findings.
Despite the versatility of generalized linear mixed models in handling complex experimental designs, they often suffer from misspecification and convergence problems. This makes inference on the values of coefficients problematic. In addition, the researcher’s choice of random and fixed effects directly affects statistical inference correctness. To address these challenges, we propose a robust extension of the “two-stage summary statistics” approach using sign-flipping transformations of the score statistic in the second stage. Our approach efficiently handles within-variance structure and heteroscedasticity, ensuring accurate regression coefficient testing for 2-level hierarchical data structures. The approach is illustrated by analyzing the reduction of health issues over time for newly adopted children. The model is characterized by a binomial response with unbalanced frequencies and several categorical and continuous predictors. The proposed approach efficiently deals with critical problems related to longitudinal nonlinear models, surpassing common statistical approaches such as generalized estimating equations and generalized linear mixed models.
A method for robust canonical discriminant analysis via two robust objective loss functions is discussed. These functions are useful to reduce the influence of outliers in the data. Majorization is used at several stages of the minimization procedure to obtain a monotonically convergent algorithm. An advantage of the proposed method is that it allows for optimal scaling of the variables. In a simulation study it is shown that under the presence of outliers the robust functions outperform the ordinary least squares function, both when the underlying structure is linear in the variables as when it is nonlinear. Furthermore, the method is illustrated with empirical data.
Tukey's scheme for finding separations in univariate data strings is described and tested. It is found that one can use the size of a data gap coupled with its ordinal position in the distribution to determine the likelihood of its having arisen by chance. It was also shown that this scheme is relatively robust for fatter-tailed-than-Gaussian distributions and has some interesting implications in multidimensional situations.
A test is proposed for the equality of the variances of k ≥ 2 correlated variables. Pitman's test for k = 2 reduces the null hypothesis to zero correlation between their sum and their difference. Its extension, eliminating nuisance parameters by a bootstrap procedure, is valid for any correlation structure between the k normally distributed variables. A Monte Carlo study for several combinations of sample sizes and number of variables is presented, comparing the level and power of the new method with previously published tests. Some nonnormal data are included, for which the empirical level tends to be slightly higher than the nominal one. The results show that our method is close in power to the asymptotic tests which are extremely sensitive to nonnormality, yet it is robust and much more powerful than other robust tests.
Item response theory (IT) models are now in common use for the analysis of dichotomous item responses. This paper examines the sampling theory foundations for statistical inference in these models. The discussion includes: some history on the “stochastic subject” versus the random sampling interpretations of the probability in IRT models; the relationship between three versions of maximum likelihood estimation for IRT models; estimating θ versus estimating θ-predictors; IRT models and loglinear models; the identifiability of IRT models; and the role of robustness and Bayesian statistics from the sampling theory perspective.
In the framework of a robustness study on maximum likelihood estimation with LISREL three types of problems are dealt with: nonconvergence, improper solutions, and choice of starting values. The purpose of the paper is to illustrate why and to what extent these problems are of importance for users of LISREL. The ways in which these issues may affect the design and conclusions of robustness research is also discussed.
Taxicab correspondence analysis is based on the taxicab singular value decomposition of a contingency table, and it shares some similar properties with correspondence analysis. It is more robust than the ordinary correspondence analysis, because it gives uniform weights to all the points. The visual map constructed by taxicab correspondence analysis has a larger sweep and clearer perspective than the map obtained by correspondence analysis. Two examples are provided.