1 - INTRODUCTION

Summary

The proportion of old people is still very small in ASEAN countries, when compared with Western countries. In 1980, the proportion of the population aged over 60 was 7.2 per cent in Singapore, 5.7 per cent in Malaysia, and around 5 per cent in Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia. In Western countries, by contrast, this proportion ranges between about 12 and 30 per cent. The question might then be raised as to why it is necessary at this time to consider ageing a phenomenon deserving of serious attention in the ASEAN region. The answer is not that an ageing crisis is just around the corner; it is not. By the turn of the century, the proportion of aged in ASEAN countries will still be below 8 per cent, except in Singapore. But in all cases, the proportion will be rising. In other words, the number of old people will be increasing faster than those at all other ages. This trend will continue at an accelerating pace in the early twenty-first century. Therefore, what is faced is not an immediate crisis of ageing, but rather a steady trend which will lead to many changes in the way societies work, and raise many questions about appropriate approaches to problems raised by the steadily increasing share of old people in the population. The time to begin examining these issues is now, not later when the issues have assumed major importance and some of the options may have been foreclosed.

Population ageing over the next decade or two will be of a different order of magnitude in Singapore compared to the other ASEAN countries. Cowgill and Holmes (1970) have proposed that populations should be considered as “aged”, “mature”. “youthful”, and “young” on the basis of the proportion of total population aged 65 and over:

Less than 4 per cent — young

4 to 6 per cent — youthful

7 to 9 per cent — mature

10 per cent and over — aged

Translated into proportions aged 60+ (the measure used in the present study) the definitions would be roughly as follows:

Less than 6 per cent — young

6 to 10 per cent — youthful

11 to 14 per cent — mature

15 per cent and over — aged