II - Growth of Agricultural Production and Inputs

Summary

Growth of Agricultural Production

Although it is easy to define productivity, the initial need to define output and the basic components of inputs is rather difficult and controversial. In this paper, the total net value of production of agricultural products includes all crops (81 per cent) and all livestock products (19 per cent). Table 4 shows the net output of agricultural products (at 1969/70 constant prices) from 1974/75, the start o( the Second FYP. Thus the performance of Burmese agriculture, in general, can be observed by analysing the data from Table 4 and Figure 1.

According to offical statistics, it is obvious that the total net agricultural output is increasing (see Table 4).: It increased 86 per cent within the twelve years from 1974 75 to 1985 86 at the annual rate of change of about 6 per cent. But if one examines the yearly change in the output indices, it can be seen that the rate of increase has been declining since 1981 82. The increasing trend lost its momentum through the 1981/82 agricultural season and has become sluggish.1 This trend is confirmed by the time series data of annual growth rates. The growth rate peaked in 1980- 81 and from 1981 82 onwards it has been decreasing yearly: the growth rate for 1985/86 was less than a quarter of that of 1980/81.

Similarly, if one looks at the average annual growth rate of each of the FYP period, the best performance occurred during the Third FYP (8.1 per cent) and the poorest performance in the Fourth FYP (4.6 per cent). This suggests that the performance of the agricultural sector slowed down after the Third FYP and became more pronounced towards the end of the Fourth FYP (which ended on 31 March 1986). This can largely be explained by the already very high base for the Fourth FYP (an analysis of this is given in detail later on).

Growth of Inputs

Labour Force

In this study, the labour input variable is defined as the economically active population in the agricultural sector. This refers to all persons engaged in economic activity, whether as employers, self-employed workers, salaried employees, or unpaid workers assisting in the operation of a family farm or a business.'