9 - Our Descendants Will Demand Climate Intervention

Summary

In this pivotal chapter, I examine the 1.5°C emissions pathways urged upon us in the 2018 IPCC SR15 report. I compare those steeply plunging emissions pathways to emissions predictions over the next 30 years made by McKinsey and Bloomberg to demonstrate that the IPCC pathways are unlikely to obtain. To devise what seems a more likely scenario, I utilize the McKinsey/Bloomberg scenarios through 2050 and append to them subsequently the sort of emissions plummet that the IPCC would recommend we commence in 2021. Even in 2050, an emissions nose-dive seems an optimistic scenario but it illustrates a pathway to Net Zero Emissions by 2084. I then translate that emissions pathway into a temperature outcome that shows an increase of roughly 2.7°C above pre-industrial temperatures in the Net Zero year. More importantly, I illustrate that after Net Zero, temperatures and therefore resulting climate damages plateau rather than decline. Worse yet, sea levels would continue to rise for centuries. Having undertaken the enormous sacrifices necessary to achieve Net Zero, I assert that future generations are unlikely to find that state of affairs acceptable. They will demand further action to reduce temperatures and climate damages. They will demand climate intervention.