6 - The Perils to Order

Summary

As I have argued throughout this book, there is a considerable likelihood of order deteriorating in Cuba as this country liberalizes. By pointing out the potential negative externalities of Cuba's current and future liberalization processes, I am in no way arguing that Cuba would be better off keeping the current regime. On the contrary, I assert that Cuba would significantly improve by liberalizing its economy and democratizing its political life. A significant institutional change in Cuba may be conducted by the same ruling elite that has been in power since 1959, or it could be implemented by a new set of political actors.

Thus, the point of assessing the potential negative externalities of Cuba's liberalization processes is to contribute to a better transition, one that would increase Cuba's chances of a successful evolution towards a regime that effectively increases citizens’ well-being. As I have shown in previous chapters, existing initial conditions and the choice of institutions significantly affect conditions of order in a society.

Figure 13 replicates Figure 5's relationship between order and regime. It adds Cuba's current position at point a in the inverted U, and a hypothetical movement towards a more democratic/liberalized regime at b. In this representation, Cuba's order deteriorates despite the many other gains from moving from a to b. Citizens, however, may sense that democratization has not brought enough benefits and may demand a return to a more authoritarian regime. To equal the previous order conditions in a, Cuba would have to move a long way towards a liberal democracy in point c, which is not trivial.

Increased crime can produce fear, disappointment, and a feeling of unfulfilled expectations, which would reduce support for policies, and for democracy itself. Fear, disappointment, and anger can then turn into societal demands for a very strong, authoritarian style government, as happened in Russia just after the fall of communism. This results in a regression towards more autocratic policies that would negatively affect citizens’ well-being.

In countries in which democracy has just been established, and individuals have lived most of their lives under a different regime type, support for democracy cannot be taken for granted.