Chapter 10 - Speculations on Nuclear South Asia

Summary

The conflict between India and Pakistan may be the most serious and imminent danger to the South Asian region and to humanity over the next 50 years. During this period, India and China will continue their rise as great powers and rivals, even if they do not become peers of the United States. This will ensure that Pakistan remains at the heart of regional and global politics for decades to come.

We examine the dynamics of the India–Pakistan nuclear relationship and how it may evolve, especially as it becomes increasingly part of a larger set of strategic relationships involving the United States and China. At the same time, Islamist politics in Pakistan, which may gather strength in coming decades, seeks to more directly confront India and the West. We look in particular at the risk of nuclear war and of nuclear terrorism. We consider also how India and Pakistan might respond to the renewed global effort to eliminate nuclear weapons.

There is another nuclear danger growing in South Asia. India and Pakistan have relied on nuclear energy for electricity production on a small scale for decades and have ambitious plans for expanding their respective programs. Other countries in the region have been seeking to start their own programs. This is part of a renewed worldwide interest in nuclear energy. But the March 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan offers a stark reminder of the ever-present danger of nuclear accidents.