Southeast Asia in 2022: Holding Resilience amid Volatilities

Summary

Southeast Asia in 2022 furnished a glimpse of what regional life in its postpandemic incarnation might look like. Things were far from pretty, with restive Myanmar still under the oppressive rule of the military junta led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and the region's post-pandemic economic recovery unsettled by the ongoing war in Ukraine. That said, there were a handful of encouraging signs that reflect the strength and resilience of the region and its peoples amid very difficult times and challenging circumstances. This chapter examines a range of issues and developments at the national, regional and extra-regional dimensions.

National Developments

By and large, Southeast Asia has effectively transitioned into living with COVID-19 as endemic. Brunei, Singapore, Vietnam and Cambodia have the highest rates of COVID-19 vaccination in the region, with approximately 270 doses per 100 people on average, followed by Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. Myanmar has the lowest rate of vaccination because of its internal turmoil and international isolation. China's Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccines were ubiquitous throughout Southeast Asia in the early phases of the pandemic thanks to Beijing's vaccine diplomacy. However, they were subsequently spurned by countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand for their perceived inefficacy in protecting against Omicron. Even in Cambodia, where Sinovac and Sinopharm accounted for 88.5 per cent of its total COVID-19 vaccine portfolio in 2021, its roll-out of booster shots in 2022 also shifted towards Pfizer and AstraZeneca.

Economically, Southeast Asia has enjoyed a welcome rebound from the worst days of the pandemic. Tourism, a major source of revenue for the region—with pre-pandemic visitors numbering as high as 139 million in 2019—accounted for 10 per cent of the GDP for Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam and between 20 and 25 per cent of GDP for Cambodia, Thailand and the Philippines. At the time of writing, all Southeast Asian countries have fully reopened to international travel without quarantine. Flights to the region have steadily returned to 2019 levels, with Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand reportedly being the most popular destinations in 2022. But the region is not completely out of the woods yet. There are a host of potential constraints in the form of rising costs and interest rates, inflation and a potential recession, all of which could hamper the region's recovery.