Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events

doi:10.1017/CBO9781107775541

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Edited by Jianping Li, Beijing Normal University, Richard Swinbank, Met Office, Exeter, Richard Grotjahn, University of California, Davis, Hans Volkert, Deutsche Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt eV (DLR)

Publisher:: Cambridge University Press
Online publication date:: March 2016
Print publication year:: 2016
Online ISBN:: 9781107775541
DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107775541

Subjects:: Atmospheric Science and Meteorology, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Climatology and Climate Change, Earth and Environmental Science: General Interest
Series:: Special Publications of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (2)

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Based largely on an International Commission on Dynamical Meteorology (ICDM) workshop, this timely volume, written by leading researchers in the field, covers a range of important research issues related to high-impact weather and extreme climate events. Dynamical linkages between these extremes and various atmospheric and ocean phenomena are examined, including Atlantic Multidecadal, North Atlantic, and Madden–Julian Oscillations; Annular Modes; tropical cyclones; and Asian monsoons. This book also examines the predictability of high-impact weather and extreme climate events on multiple time scales. Highlighting recent research and new advances in the field, this book enhances understanding of dynamical and physical processes associated with these events to help managers and policy makers make informed decisions to manage risk and prevent or mitigate disasters. It also provides guidance on future research directions in atmospheric science, meteorology, climate science, and weather forecasting, for experts and young scientists.

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Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events

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Contents

Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events
pp i-i

Special publications of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Series - Series page
pp ii-ii

Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale High-Impact Weather and Climate Events - Title page
pp iii-iii

Copyright page
pp iv-iv

Contents
pp v-vi

Preface
pp vii-viii

Frontispiece
pp ix-ix

Acknowledgements
pp x-xi

Contributors
pp xii-xiv

Part I - Diagnostics and prediction of high-impact weather
pp 1-66

1 - Global prediction of high-impact weather: diagnosis and performance
pp 3-15

2 - Severe weather diagnosis from the perspective of generalized slantwise vorticity development
pp 16-36

3 - Probabilistic extreme event attribution
pp 37-46

4 - Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes
pp 47-66

Part II - High-impact weather in mid latitudes
pp 67-130

5 - Rossby wave breaking: climatology, interaction with low-frequency climate variability, and links to extreme weather events
pp 69-78

6 - The influence of jet stream regime on extreme weather events
pp 79-94

7 - Forecasting high-impact weather using ensemble prediction systems
pp 95-112

8 - Storm tracks, blocking, and climate change: a review
pp 113-121

9 - The North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations: climate variability, extremes, and stratosphere–troposphere interaction
pp 122-130

Part III - Tropical cyclones
pp 131-182

10 - Opportunities and challenges in dynamical and predictability studies of tropical cyclone events
pp 133-140

11 - Predictability of severe weather and tropical cyclones at the mesoscales
pp 141-152

12 - Dynamics, predictability, and high-impact weather associated with the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones
pp 153-167

13 - Secondary eyewall formation in tropical cyclones
pp 168-175

14 - Seasonal forecasting of floods and tropical cyclones
pp 176-182

Part IV - Heat waves and cold-air outbreaks
pp 183-236

15 - European heat waves: the effect of soil moisture, vegetation, and land use
pp 185-197

16 - Western North American extreme heat, associated large-scale synoptic-dynamics, and performance by a climate model
pp 198-209

17 - Decadal to interdecadal variations of northern China heat wave frequency: impact of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover
pp 210-219

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Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events

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