Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-lrblm Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-12T21:44:27.629Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
Series:   Elements in Defence Economics

Defence Economics and Innovation

The Political Economy of Large-Scale Defence Projects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 December 2024

Gustavo Fornari Dall'Agnol
Gustavo Fornari Dall'Agnol
Affiliation:
Federal University of Santa Catarina

Summary

This Element presents an analytical model for assessing the success or failure of innovative large-scale defence projects. To achieve this goal, it constructs a theoretical model based on a three-angle analysis: the International System, the innovative potential, and the domestic political arena. Each angle of analysis generates an independent variable, namely: level of threat, technological feasibility, and political consensus. It is held that technological feasibility and political consensus are necessary and conjointly sufficient conditions to explain the success or failure of large-scale defence projects. The success of the innovative defence projects is strongly and positively related to the level of external threat. The initial hypothesis is tested by scrutinizing three specific projects in the United States (Future Combat Systems, The B-2 Stealth Bomber and the F-35). The conclusion is that the model is sound and might be generalized to analyse the prospects of success or failure of other large-scale defence projects.
Get access

Keywords

defence policyinnovationeconomicsdecision-makingproject management
Type
Element
Information
Series: Elements in Defence Economics
Online ISBN: 9781009409766
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication: 16 January 2025

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abplanalp, Jetta. (2017). Air Superiority: Is the F-35 Aircraft Worth the Cost? Maxwell Air Force Base, AL: United States Air Command and Staff College Air University.Google Scholar
Adams, Gordon and Williams, Cindy. (2010). Buying National Security: How America Plans and Pays for Its Global Role and Safety at Home. New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allison, Graham. (1969). Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Boston, MA: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Allison, Graham T. and Halperin, Morton H. (1972). Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications. World Politics, v. 24, n. 1, pp. 48–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amarante, José C.A. (2012). Texto Para discussão 1758: A Base Industrial de Defesa. IPEA.Google Scholar
Andrade, Israel de Oliveira. (2016). A Base Industrial De Defesa: Contextualização Histórica, Conjuntura Atual E Perspectivas Futuras. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA.Google Scholar
Brockman, Heide. (2017). US Defense Budget Outcomes: Volatility and Predictability in Army Weapons Funding. West Point, NY: United States Military Academy & Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Brower, Michael. (1990). B-2 New Numbers, Old Arguments. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, v. 46, n. 5, pp. 25–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, Michael E. (1988). B-2 or Not B-2 Crisis and Choice in the US Strategic Bomber Program. Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, v. 30, n. 4, pp. 351–366.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Candreva, Philip J. (2017). National Defense Budgeting and Financial Management: Policy and Practice. Charlotte, NC: Information Age Publishing, Inc.Google Scholar
CBO. (1993). CBO Staff Memorandum: Alternative Procurement Programs for the B-2 bomber: Effects on Capability and Costs. Washington, DC: The Congress of the United States Congressional Budget Office.Google Scholar
Chapman, Bert. (2019). Global Defense Procurement and the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, e-book.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clausewitz, Carl Von. (2007). On War. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
CRS. (2020). F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program. Washington DC: Congressional Research Service.Google Scholar
Dall’agnol, Gustavo Fornari. (2022). Defense, Decision-Making and Political Economy: Large-Scale Projects and the Decision-Making Process in United States’ Defense Politics. Belo Horizonte: PUC-MG. www.biblioteca.pucminas.br/teses/RelacoesInternacionais_GustavoFornariDallagnol_29820_Textocompleto.pdf.Google Scholar
Dall’Agnol, G. F. and Dall’Agnol, Augusto César. (2020). NATO’s Decision-Making Process in Budgeting: Prospects of the Burden-Sharing Problem. Revista Política Hoje, v. 29, n. 2. https://periodicos.ufpe.br/revistas/politicahoje/article/download/248717/38812.Google Scholar
Demarest, Heidi Brockman. (2017). US Defense Budget Outcomes: Volatility and Predictability in Army Weapons Funding. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deptula, Dave. (2020). F-35 Is Performing Far Better than Critics Would Have You Think. www.forbes.com/sites/davedeptula/2020/07/20/f-35-problem-child-or-on-track-forsuccess/?sh=5fe6082e15d1. Accessed at: December, 2021.Google Scholar
Diamond, David. (2006). Defence Innovation: Internal and External Factors. RUSI Defence Systems.Google Scholar
Dunne, J. Paul. (1995). The Defense Industrial Base. In Sandler, T. and Hartley, K. (eds.). Handbook of Defense Economics . North Holand: Elselvier Science B.V, pp. 400–430.Google Scholar
Charles., Edquist (ed.). (1997). Systems of Innovation. London: Pinter.Google Scholar
Elias, Norbert. (1993). O Processo Civilizador: Formação do Estado e Civilização. Rio de Janeiro: Zahar.Google Scholar
Ellman, Jesse E. (2009). The Role of Evolutionary Acquisition and Spiral Development in the Failure of the Army’s Future Combat System. Washington, DC: Georgetown University.Google Scholar
Elman, Colin. (1999). The Logic of Emulation: The Diffusion of Military Practices in the International System. Columbia: Columbia University.Google Scholar
Fagerberg, Jan and Godinho, Manuel M. 2006. Innovation and Catching-Up. In Fagerberg, J., Mowery, D. and Richard, N. (eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Innovation. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 514–598.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freedman, Lawrence. (1976). Logic, Politics and Foreign Policy Processes: A Critique of the Bureaucratic Politics Model. International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs). v. 52, n. 3, pp. 434–449.Google Scholar
Freeman, Christopher. (1987). Technology, Policy, and Economic Performance: Lessons from Japan. New York: Pinter.Google Scholar
GAO. (1990). Report to the Chairman, Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives. Strategic Bombers: B-2 Program Status and Current Issues. Washington, DC: United States General Accounting Office.Google Scholar
GAO. (1995). B-2 Bomber: Status of Cost, Development and Production. Washington, DC: United States General Accounting Office.Google Scholar
GAO. (2005). Assessments of Selected Major Weapon Programs. Washington, DC: Government Accountability Office.Google Scholar
GAO. (2017). F-35 Aircraft Sustainment: DOD Needs to Address Challenges Affecting Readiness and Cost Transparency. Washington, DC: Government Accountability Office.Google Scholar
Gouré, Daniel. (2021). Future Combat System: What Went Wrong? www.lexingtoninstitute.org/future-combat-system-what-went-wrong/. Accessed at: November, 2021.Google Scholar
Gourevitch, Peter. (1978). The Second Image Reversed: The International Sources of Domestic Politics. International Organization, v. 32, n. 4, pp. 881–911.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grant, Rebecca. (2012). Black Bomb: The B-2’s Tortured Acquisition Program. Air Force Magazine, January. www.airforcemag.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Documents/2012/January%202012/0112bomber.pdf. Accessed at: October, 2022.Google Scholar
Halperin, Morton H. (1974). Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Hartley, Keith. (1995). Industrial Policies in the Defense Sector. In Sandler, T. and Hartley, K. (eds.). Handbook of Defense Economics. North Holand: Elselvier Science B.V, pp. 460–489.Google Scholar
Hartley, Keith. (2020). Defence Economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hartley, Keith and Todd., Sandler (eds.). (1990). The Economics of Defence Spending: An International Survey. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Healy, Melissa. (1990). Cost of $1.95 billion for Each B-2 Held Possible: Defense: The Price Would Soar if Fewer Are Built and Procurement Is Extended, a Congressional Report Says. Cancellation Would Save $45 billion. The LA Times, April, 1990. www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-04-04-mn-711-story.html. Accessed at: October, 2012.Google Scholar
Herz, John H. (1950). Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma. World Politics, v. 2, n. 2, pp. 157–180.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hlatky, Stéfanie and Rice, Jeffrey. (2018). Striking a Deal on the F-35: Multinational Politics and US Defence Acquisition. Defence Studies, v. 18, n. 1, pp. 1–21.Google Scholar
Kaeser, Hans Ulrich. (2009). The Future Combat System: What Future Can the Army Afford? Washington, DC: Center for Strategic & International Studies.Google Scholar
Krasner, Stephen D. (1972). Are Bureaucracies Important? (Or Allison’s Wonderland)? Foreign Policy, v.1, n. 7, pp. 159–179.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laffont, J.-J, and Tirole, J. (1986). Using Cost Observation to Regulate Firms. Journal of Political Economy. v. 94, n. 3, pp. 614–641.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. (1971). Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method. The American Political Science Review, v. 65, n. 3, pp. 534–546.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. (2014). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W Norton.Google Scholar
Moore, Molly. (1989). B2 Bomber Cancellation Is Urged. The Washington Post, 19 May. www.google.com/search?q=B2+BOMBER+CANCELLATION+IS+URGED.+The+Washington+Post%3A+May+19%2C+1989.&rlz=1C1CHBD_pt-PTBR924BR924&oq=B2+BOMBER+CANCELLATION+IS+URGED.+The+Washington+Post%3A+May+19%2C+1989.&aqs=chrome..69i57.784j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8. Accessed at: October, 2022.Google Scholar
Mowery, David G. (2010). Military R&D and Innovation. In Hall, B. H. and Rosenberg, N. (eds.). Handbook of the Economics of Innovation. Columbia: Elsevier. Vol. 2, pp. 1219–1256.Google Scholar
Neustadt, Richard E. (2008). Poder Presidencial E Os Presidentes Modernos: A Política De Liderança De Roosevelt a Reagan. Brasília: Enap.Google Scholar
Olson, Mancur and Zeckhauser, Richard. (1996). An Economic Theory of Alliances. Review of Economics and Statistics. v. 48, n. 3, pp. 266–279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Palmer, Glenn, McManus, Roseanne W., D’Orazio, Vito et al. (2020). The MID5 Dataset, 2011–2014: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 39, n. 4, pp. 470–482. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0738894221995743.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peck, M. J., and Scherer, F. M. 1962. The Weapons Acquisition Process: An Economic Analysis. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Pernin, Christopher G., Axelband, Elliot, and Wilson, Peter A. (2012). Lessons from the Army’s Future Combat Systems Program. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Petrelli, Niccolò. (2020). Lessons from the F-35 Programme. Roma: Instituto Affari Internazionali.Google Scholar
Posen, Barry. (1984). The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany between the World Wars. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Ranga, Marina and Etzkowitz, Henry. (2013). Triple Helix Systems: An Analytical Framework for Innovation Policy and Practice in the Knowledge Society. Industry & Higher Education, v. 27, n. 3, pp. 237–262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Resende-Santos, . (2007). Neorealism, States, and Modern Mass Army. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rogerson, William P. (1995). Incentive Models of the Defense Procurement Process. In Sandler, T. and Hartley, K. (eds.). Handbook of Defense Economics. North Holand: Elselvier Science B.V, pp. 310–347.Google Scholar
Schilling, Warner R. (1961). The H-Bomb Decision: How to Decide without Actually Choosing. Political Science Quarterly, v. 76, n. 1, pp. 73–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosati, Jarel . (1981). Developing a Systematic Decision-Making Framework: Bureaucratic Politics in Perspective. World Politics, v. 33, n. 2, pp. 234–252.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosen, S. (1991). Winning the Next War: Innovation and the Modern Military. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Sabatier, , Paul, A., and Jenkins-Smith, Hank. (1993). Policy Change and Learning: An Advocacy Coalition Approach. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Sabatier, P. A, and Jenkins-Smith, H. (2007). The Advocacy Coalition Framework: An Assessment. In Sabatier, P. (ed.). Theories of the Policy Process. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, pp. 117–166.Google Scholar
Sabatier, Paul A. and Weible, Christopher M. (2007). The Advocacy Coalition Framework: Innovations and Clarifications. In Sabatier, Paul A. (org.). Theories of Policy Process. Boulder: West View Press, p. 350.Google Scholar
Schofield, S. (1993). Defence Technology, Industrial Structure and Arms Conversion. In Coopey, R., Uttley, M. and Sporadi, G. (eds.). Defence Science and Technology: Adjusting to Change. Harwood: Reading.Google Scholar
Schumpeter, Joseph. (1934). The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Schumpeter, J. (1966). Invention and Economic Growth. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Simon, Herbert A. (1965). Administrative Behavior: A Study of Decision-Making Processes in Administrative Organization. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David. (1987). Reconstructing the Correlates of War Dataset on Material Capabilities of States, 1816–1985. International Interactions, v. 14, pp. 115–132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
SIPRI. (2020). SIPRI Yearbook. Oxford: Blackwell, Oxford (for Stockholm International Peace Research Institute).Google Scholar
Sprenger, Sebastian. (2016). 30 Years: Future Combat Systems: Acquisition Gone Wrong. Defense News, October, 2016. www.defensenews.com/30th-annivesary/2016/10/25/30-years-future-combatsystems-acquisition-gone-wrong/. Accessed at: November, 2022.Google Scholar
Stacy, Jerry and Gunzinger, Mark. (1996). Bureaucratic Politics and the B-2 Bomber: The FY’96 Budget as a Case Study. Washington, DC: Naval War College.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stone, Mike. (2022). Bipartisan U.S. senators pen support for funding of F-35 jet. www.reuters.com/world/us/bipartisan-us-senators-pen-support-funding-f-35-jet-2021-05-06/. Accessed at: December, 2022.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. (1990). Coercion, Capital, and European States AD 990-1990. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Basil Blackwell, Inc.Google Scholar
True, James L., Jones, Bryan D. and Baumgartner, Frank. (2007). Punctuated-Equilibrium Theory: Explaining Stability and Change in Public Policymaking. In Sabatier, Paul A. (org). Theories of the Policy Process. Boulder: West View Press, pp. 155–189.Google Scholar
Tsebelis, George. (2005). Veto Players and Institutional Analysis. Governance: An International Journal of Policy and Administration, v. 13, n. 4, pp. 441–474.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller). (2020). DoD Budget Request: Washington DC: https://comptroller.defense.gov/Budget-Materials/. Accessed at: December, 2022.Google Scholar
Venable, John. (2020). The F-35A Is the World’s Most Dominant, Cost-Effective Fighter: The Air Force Needs to Accelerate Its Acquisition Now. Washington, DC: The Heritage Foundation (Center for National Defense).Google Scholar
Walker, W., Graham, M. and Harbor, B. (1988). From Components to Integrated Systems: Technological Diversity and Interactions between Military and Civilian Sectors. In Gummett, P. and Reppy, J. (eds.). The Relation between Military and Civilian Technologies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic, pp. 17–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walt, Sephen M. (1987). The Origins of Alliances. New York: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth. (1996). International Politics Is Not Foreign Policy. Security Studies, v. 6, n. 1, pp. 54–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Watts, Barry. (2008). The US Defense Industrial Base: Past, Present and Future. Washington, DC: CSBA.Google Scholar
Welch, Jasper. (1989). Assessing the Value of Stealthy Aircraft and Cruise Missiles. International Security, v. 14, n. 2, pp. 47–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Welch, David A. (1998). A Positive Science of Bureaucratic Politics? Mershon International Studies Review, v. 42, n. 2, pp. 210–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aaron., Wildavsky (1964). The Politics of the Budgetary Process. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar

Save element to Kindle

To save this element to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Defence Economics and Innovation
Available formats
×

Save element to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Defence Economics and Innovation
Available formats
×

Save element to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Defence Economics and Innovation
Available formats
×