Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-fbnjt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T19:17:22.722Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

EVT-based estimation of risk capital and convergence of high quantiles

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2016

Matthias Degen*
Affiliation:
ETH Zurich
Paul Embrechts*
Affiliation:
ETH Zurich
*
Postal address: Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, Raemistrasse 101, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
Postal address: Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, Raemistrasse 101, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

We discuss some issues regarding the accuracy of a quantile-based estimation of risk capital. In this context, extreme value theory (EVT) emerges naturally. The paper sheds some further light on the ongoing discussion concerning the use of a semi-parametric approach like EVT and the use of specific parametric models such as the g-and-h. In particular, we discusses problems and pitfalls evolving from such parametric models when using EVT and highlight the importance of the underlying second-order tail behavior.

Type
General Applied Probability
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 2008 

References

Abramowitz, M. and Stegun, I. A. (1972). Handbook of Mathematical Functions. Dover, New York.Google Scholar
Balkema, G. and Embrechts, P. (2007). High Risk Scenarios and Extremes – A Geometric Approach. EMS, Zürich.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beirlant, J., Goegebeur, Y., Segers, J. and Teugels, J. (2004). Statistics of Extremes. John Wiley, Chichester.Google Scholar
Bingham, N. H., Goldie, C. M. and Teugels, J. L. (1987). Regular Variation. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Buch-Larssen, T., Nielsen, J. P., Guillén, M. and Bolancé, C. (2005). Kernel density estimation for heavy-tailed distributions using the Champernowne transformation. Statistics 39, 503518.Google Scholar
Christoffersen, P. F., Diebold, F. X. and Schuermann, T. (1998). Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management. In Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, pp. 109118.Google Scholar
Cohen, J. P. (1982). Convergence rates for the ultimate and penultimate approximations in extreme-value theory. Adv. Appl. Prob. 14, 833854.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davison, A. C. (1984). Modelling excesses over high thresholds, with an application. In Statistical Extremes and Applications, ed. Tiego de Oliveira, J., Reidel, Dordrecht, pp. 461482.Google Scholar
Davison, A. C. and Smith, R. L. (1990). Models for exceedances over high thresholds (with discussion). J. R. Statist. Soc. B 52, 393442.Google Scholar
Degen, M., Embrechts, P. and Lambrigger, D. D. (2007). The quantitative modeling of operational risk – between g-and-h and EVT. ASTIN Bull. 37, 265291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Haan, L. and Ferreira, A. (2006). Extreme Value Theory – An Introduction. Springer, New York.Google Scholar
De Haan, L. and Stadtmüller, U. (1996). Generalized regular variation of second order. J. Austral. Math. Soc. 61, 381395.Google Scholar
Dutta, K. and Perry, J. (2006). A tale of tails: an empirical analysis of loss distribution models for estimating operational risk capital. Working paper 06-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Embrechts, P., Klüppelberg, C. and Mikosch, T. (1997). Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance. Springer, Berlin.Google Scholar
Fisher, R. A. and Tippett, L. H. T. (1928). Limiting forms of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample. Proc. Camb. Philos. Soc. 24, 180190.Google Scholar
Gomes, M. I. and de Haan, L. (1999). Approximation by penultimate extreme value distributions. Extremes 2, 7185.Google Scholar
Gomes, M. I. and Pestana, D. (2007). A sturdy reduced-bias extreme quantile (VaR) estimator. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102, 280292.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoaglin, D. C., Mosteller, F. and Tukey, J. W. (1985). Exploring Data Tables, Trends, and Shapes. John Wiley, New York.Google Scholar
Jobst, A. A. (2007). Operational risk: the sting is still in the tail but the poison depends on the dose. J. Operational Risk 2, 359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lambrigger, D. D., Shevchenko, P. and Wüthrich, M. (2007). The quantification of operational risk using internal data, relevant external data and expert opinions. J. Operational Risk 2, 327.Google Scholar
Makarov, M. (2006). Extreme value theory and high quantile convergence. J. Operational Risk 1, 5157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martinez, J. and Iglewicz, B. (1984). Some properties of the Tukey g and h family of distributions. Commun. Statist. Theory Meth. 13, 353369.Google Scholar
McNeil, A. J., Frey, R. and Embrechts, P. (2005). Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Moscadelli, M. (2004). The modelling of operational risk: experience with the analysis of the data collected by the Basel Committee. Working paper 517, Bank of Italy.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Resnick, S. I. (1987). Extreme Values, Regular Variation and Point Processes. Springer, New York.Google Scholar
Resnick, S. I. (2007). Heavy-Tail Phenomena: Probabilistic and Statistical Modeling. Springer, New York.Google Scholar
Smith, R. L. (1987). Estimating tails of probability distributions. Ann. Statist. 15, 11741207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tukey, J. W. (1977). Exploratory Data Analysis. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.Google Scholar
Worms, R. (2002). Penultimate approximation for the distribution of the excesses. ESAIM Prob. Statist. 6, 2131.Google Scholar