Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-xbtfd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T21:31:14.526Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Non-linear time series and Markov chains

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2016

Dag Tjøstheim*
Affiliation:
University of Bergen
*
Postal address: Department of Mathematics, University of Bergen, 5007 Bergen, Norway.

Abstract

It is shown how Markov chain theory can be exploited to study non-linear time series, the emphasis being on the classification into stationary and non-stationary models. A generalized h-step version of the Tweedie (1975), (1976) criteria is formulated, and applications are given to a number of non-linear models. New results are obtained, and known results are shown to emerge as special cases in both the scalar and vector case. A connection to stability theory is briefly discussed, and it is indicated how the Markov property can be utilized for estimation purposes.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1990 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bhaskara Rao, M., Subba Rao, T. and Walker, A. M. (1983) On the existence of some bilinear time series models. J. Time Series Anal. 4, 95110.Google Scholar
Bhattacharya, R. N. (1988) Ergodicity and central limit theorems for a class of Markov processes. J. Multivariate Anal. 27, 8090.Google Scholar
Billingsley, P. (1961) Statistical Inference for Markov Processes. University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Chan, K. S. (1986) Topics in non-linear time series analysis. , Department of Mathematics, Princeton University, USA.Google Scholar
Chan, K. S. and Tong, H. (1985) On the use of deterministic Lyapunov function for the ergodicity of stochastic difference equations. Adv. Appl. Prob. 17, 666678.Google Scholar
Chan, K. S., Petruccelli, J. D., Tong, H. and Woolford, S. W. (1985) A multiple threshold AR (1) model. J. Appl. Prob. 22, 267279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doukhan, P. and Ghindes, M. (1980) Etude du processus Xn+1 = f(Xn) + ?n. C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris A 290, 921923.Google Scholar
Feigin, P. D. and Tweedie, R. L. (1985) Random coefficient autoregressive processes: A Markov chain analysis of stationarity and finiteness of moments. J. Time Series Anal. 6, 114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granger, C. W. J. and Andersen, A. (1978) An Introduction to Bilinear Time Series Models. Vanderhoeck and Ruprecht, Göttingen.Google Scholar
Jones, D. A. (1978) Non-linear autoregressive processes. Proc. Roy. Soc. London A 360, 7195.Google Scholar
Karlsen, H. (1990) Existence of moments in a stationary stochastic difference equation. Adv. Appl. Prob. 22, 129146.Google Scholar
Loeve, M. (1963) Probability Theory. Van Nostrand, New York.Google Scholar
Nicholls, D. F. and Quinn, B. G. (1982) Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models: An Introduction. Lecture Notes in Statistics 11, Springer-Verlag, New York.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nummelin, E. (1984) General Irreducible Markov Chains and Non-negative Operators. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Petruccelli, J. D. and Woolford, S. W. (1984) A threshold AR(1) model. J. Appl. Prob. 21, 270286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pham, D. T. (1985) Bilinear Markovian representation and bilinear models. Stoch. Proc. Appl. 20, 295306.Google Scholar
Pham, D. T. (1986) The mixing property of bilinear and generalized random coefficient autoregressive models. Stoch. Proc. Appl. 23, 291300.Google Scholar
Priestley, M B. (1988) Non-linear and Non-stationary Time Series. Academic Press, New York.Google Scholar
Robinson, P. M. (1983) Nonparametric estimators for time series. J. Time Series Anal. 4, 185207.Google Scholar
Stensholt, B. and Tjøstheim, D. (1987) Multiple bilinear time series models. J. Time Series Anal. 8, 221233.Google Scholar
Subba Rao, T. and Gabr, M. M. (1984) An Introduction to Bispectral Analysis and Bilinear Time Series Models. Lecture Notes in Statistics 24, Springer-Verlag, New York.Google Scholar
Tjøstheim, D. (1986a) Some doubly stochastic time series models. J. Time Series Anal. 7, 5172.Google Scholar
Tjøstheim, D. (1986b) Estimation in nonlinear time series models. Stoch. Proc. Appl. 21, 251273.Google Scholar
Tong, H. (1983) Threshold Models in Nonlinear Time Series Analysis. Lecture Notes in Statistics 21, Springer-Verlag, New York.Google Scholar
Tong, H. (1987) Threshold, stability, non-linear forecasting and irregularly sampled data. Invited paper in Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Economic Structural Change , IIASA, ed. Hackl, P..Google Scholar
Tweedie, R. L. (1975) Sufficient conditions for ergodicity and recurrence of Markov chains on a general state space. Stoch. Proc. Appl. 3, 385403.Google Scholar
Tweedie, R. L. (1976) Criteria for classifying general Markov chains. Adv. Appl. Prob. 8, 737771.Google Scholar
Tweedie, R. L. (1983) Criteria for rates of convergence of Markov chains, with applications to queueing theory. In Papers in Probability, Statistics and Analysis, ed. Kingman, J. F. C. and Reuter, G. E. H.. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tweedie, R. L. (1988) Invariant measures for Markov chains with no irreducibility assumptions. J. Appl. Prob. 25A (A Celebration of Applied Probability), 275285.Google Scholar