Consider a genetic population evolving in time. In particular, suppose that the population is very large, that there is a large number of genetic types (alleles) possible for the genes making up the population, and that the numbers of the various alleles change stochastically in time, subject to Mendel's law of inheritance. Assume that there are no selective differences among the genotypes, but that mutation may occur among the alleles.

Many species of birds have a characteristic clutch size which is either fixed at k or is of the form k or k + 1 for some appropriate integer k. For example, the ground-living pigeons lay two eggs, the white stork four and the sulphur-crested cockatoo two and rarely three. The spotted nightjar lays one egg and the white-tailed nightjar lays two. The (European) swift lays two or three eggs, the (Australian) wood swallows lay three or four eggs and a number of (Australian) finches lay five or six eggs. These clutch sizes should be the result of evolutionary forces and it could be expected that the clutch size, for a particular species and environment, is the one which results in maximization of the probability of survival of the species to each time point t. It is consequently of interest to see whether it is possible to prescribe a population process which provides a reasonable description of a bird population and which exhibits this maximization behaviour when the clutch size is either k or is k or k + 1. Such a model has been suggested by Heyde and Schuh (1978) and it is the object of the present note to indicate how this model may be extended while still retaining the desired characteristic features.

Quantum mechanics is usually described in the terminology of probability theory even though the properties of the probability spaces associated with it are fundamentally different from the standard ones of probability theory. For example, Kolmogorov's axioms are not general enough to encompass the non-commutative situations that arise in quantum theory. There have been many attempts to generalise these axioms to meet the needs of quantum mechanics. The focus of these attempts has been the observation, first made by Birkhoff and von Neumann (1936), that the propositions associated with a quantum-mechanical system do not form a Boolean σ-algebra. There is almost universal agreement that the probability space associated with a quantum-mechanical system is given by the set of subspaces of a separable Hilbert space, but there is disagreement over the algebraic structure that this set represents. In the most popular model for the probability space of quantum mechanics the propositions are assumed to form an orthocomplemented lattice (Mackey (1963), Jauch (1968)). The fundamental concept here is that of a partial order, that is a binary relation that is reflexive and transitive but not symmetric. The partial order is interpreted as embodying the logical concept of implication in the set of propositions associated with the physical system. Although this model provides an acceptable mathematical expression of the probabilistic structure of quantum mechanics in that the subspaces of a separable Hilbert space give a representation of an ortho-complemented lattice, it has several deficiencies which will be discussed later.

The theoretical analyses of the extensive air showers developing from the cosmic radiation has its origins in the work of Carlson and Oppenheimer (1937) and Bhabha and Heitler (1937), at a time when it was thought that such showers were initiated by electrons. The realization that protons and other nuclei were the primary particles led to a reformulation of the theory by Heitler and Janossy (1949), Messel and Green (1952) and others, in which the production of energetic pions and the three-dimensional development of air showers were accounted for. But as the soft (electromagnetic) component of the cosmic radiation is the most prominent feature of air showers at sea level, there has been a sustained interest in the theory of this component. Most of the more recent work, such as that by Butcher and Messel (1960) and Thielheim and Zöllner (1972) has relied on computer simulation; but this method has disadvantages in terms of accuracy and presentation of results, especially where a simultaneous analysis of the development of air showers in terms of several physical variables is required. This is so for instance when the time of arrival is one of the variables. Moyal (1956) played an important part in the analytical formulation of a stochastic theory of cosmic ray showers, with time as an explicit variable, and it is essentially this approach which will be adopted in the following. The actual distribution of arrival times is cosmic ray showers, for which results are obtained, is of current experimental interest (McDonald, Clay and Prescott (1977)).

There is an extensive literature on estimating a probability density (or some other appropriate curve) f using statistics of the form Here X1, X2, · · ·, Xn is a sample from the population, the weight function w is constrained by suitable regularity conditions, and the sequence {bn} of band-widths satisfies bn → 0, nbn → ∞ as n → ∞. Rosenblatt (1971) presents details of this method of estimation and provides an extensive list of references.