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Adaptive moving average for trending of accident rates

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 February 2016

M. Merens
M. Merens*
Affiliation:
mmerens@icao.int, International Civil Aviation Organisation, Integrated Safety Management Section, Montréal, Canada
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Abstract

The yearly accident rate is a common metric used to measure aviation safety performance on a yearly and global basis. This technical note establishes the algorithm for an adaptive moving average which can be used to trend accident rates or any other event counting type of safety indicators. The algorithm was built around the concept of Bollinger Bands and allows easy detection of significant increases or decreases of the accident rate.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Aeronautical Journal , Volume 114 , Issue 1161 , November 2010 , pp. 711 - 713
Copyright
Copyright © Royal Aeronautical Society 2010 

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References

1. ICAO, Global Aviation Safety Plan, July 2007.Google Scholar
2. Bollinger, J.A.. Bollinger on Bollinger Bands, McGraw-Hill, July 2001.Google Scholar