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Work at age 62: expectations and realisations among recent cohorts of Americans

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 November 2020

Leah R. Abrams Open the ORCID record for Leah R. Abrams [Opens in a new window] ,
Philippa J. Clarke  and
Neil K. Mehta
Leah R. Abrams*
Affiliation:
Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Philippa J. Clarke
Affiliation:
Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Neil K. Mehta
Affiliation:
Department of Preventive Medicine and Population Health, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: LRAbrams@HSPH.Harvard.edu
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Abstract

Much remains unknown about how the 2008 Great Recession, coupled with the ageing baby-boomer cohort, have shaped retirement expectations and realised retirement timing across diverse groups of older Americans. Using the Health and Retirement Study (1992–2016), we compared expectations about full-time work at age 62 (reported at ages 51–61) with realised labour force status at age 62. Of the 12,049 respondents, 34 per cent reported no chance of working full time at 62 (zero probability) and 21 per cent reported it was very likely (90–100 probability). Among those reporting no chance of working, there was a 0.111 probability of unmet expectations; among those with high expectations of working, there was a 0.430 probability of unmet expectations. Black and Hispanic Americans were more likely than white Americans to have unmet expectations of both types. Educational attainment was associated with higher probability of unexpectedly working and lower probability of unexpectedly not working. Baby-boomers experienced fewer unmet expectations than prior cohorts but more uncertainty about work status at 62. Our findings highlight the unpredictability of retirement timing for significant segments of the US population and the role of the Great Recession in contributing to uncertainty. Given the individual and societal benefits of long work lives, special attention should be paid to the high rates of unexpectedly not working at age 62.

Keywords

retirement timingunmet expectationsworkraceeducationbirth cohorts
Type
Article
Information
Ageing & Society , Volume 42 , Issue 5 , May 2022 , pp. 1213 - 1233
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press

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