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A Hybrid Land Conversion Model Incorporating Multiple End Uses

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 September 2016

Nikhil Kaza ,
Charles Towe  and
Xin Ye
Nikhil Kaza
Affiliation:
Department of City and Regional Planning at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Charles Towe
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
Xin Ye
Affiliation:
Department of City and Regional Planning at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education at the University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
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Abstract

The need for models that forecast land use change spans many disciplines and encompasses many approaches. Pattern-based models were the first in which projections of change at specific locations in actual landscapes could be predicted. In contrast, recent economic models have modeled the underlying behavioral process that produces land use change. This paper combines attributes from each approach into a hybrid model using a multiple discrete continuous extreme value formulation that allows for multiple conversion types, while also estimating the intensity of each type of conversion, which is an important but often overlooked dimension. We demonstrate the simulation routine, which successfully predicts a majority of growth by type, time, and location at a disaggregated scale, for a three-county region in Maryland.

Keywords

MDCEVland conversionregional planningurban growth policy
Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Agricultural and Resource Economics Review , Volume 40 , Issue 3 , December 2011 , pp. 341 - 359
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

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