Demand for selected nursery plants sold in North Carolina (i.e., begonia, dianthus, geranium, impatiens, marigold, petunia, and vinca) was found to be affected more by prices than by income, demographic, and other variables. By using cross-sectional data, a modified AIDS model, incorporating demographic variables and quadratic income response, was estimated. Inverse Mills's ratios were also included in the model to correct for selectivity bias, resulting from zero purchases. Significant own-price elasticities ranged from − 0.71 to − 1.65, and income elasticities ranged from − 0.78 to 0.41.

Trade theorists have demonstrated that different trade policy instruments have different effects on the quality and source of imports. Countervailing duties (CVDs), like specific tariffs, should induce quality upgrading. However, the magnitude and timing of the quality adjustments are influenced by the credibility of the duties that can be legally contested and modified after annual administrative reviews. Index numbers are used to assess the timing and magnitude of the product mix and country mix substitution effects in U.S. pork imports in response to the U.S. CVDs on Canadian exports of live hogs and fresh, chilled, and frozen pork.

Differential property tax policy for farmland is often set under conditions of uncertainty and limited information regarding landowners’ objective functions. This study examines optimal differential tax policy for a parcel of agricultural land facing uncertain development, identifying instances in which common farmland taxation policies may be non-optimal. Optimal tax rates are characterized given three possible causes of uncertain development: exogenous offers from developers, tax-related reductions in landowner wealth, and a combination of these factors. Model results indicate that underlying causes of uncertain development are critical when seeking to assess the optimality of differential taxation policies, and the use of a single, time-invariant differential tax levy is rarely optimal given uncertain development.

This paper examines the effects of local workforce creativity on county-level earnings. Descriptive analysis of the data shows that most of the high-creativity counties in the United States are part of metropolitan areas, and that employee earnings are high in these places. Regression results indicate that, other things being equal, workforce creativity enhances county-level labor earnings. However, the returns to creativity that we found can be confirmed only in the urban context. An extension of the analysis suggests that the creative workforce wage premium may be capturing the effects of “technical workforce creativity” on earnings.

Producing biomass energy requires much land, and effects of biomass production on ecosystem services could greatly affect total biomass energy cost. This study estimates switchgrass production cost in western Massachusetts at three levels: private production cost, private cost plus social cost of nitrogen fertilizer externalities, and those costs plus the social opportunity cost of foregone forest ecosystem services. Values for nitrogen externalities and forest ecosystem services estimated with benefit transfer suggest that social cost is much greater than private switchgrass production cost. The benefit-transfer estimates are only first approximations, but conclusions are robust to a large range of values.

Optimal control models of aggregate milk supply and demand behavior are used to describe the optimal phasing of the deregulatory dairy price support in the presence of supply growth. Producers are assumed to face costs of adjustment, and are myopic with respect to price expectations and the adoption of the new quasi-fixed factor augmenting technology.

The eleven state area of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont comprises the Northeast agricultural area. According to the latest farm number estimates in 1980, there are over 159,000 farms in the Northeast with the largest number of farms concentrated in Pennsylvania, New York and Maryland, respectively. Given the large number of farms and the diverse topography of the region, farmers in the Northeast produce a wide variety of agricultural commodities. In 1980, farm cash receipts in the Northeast were estimated at $8.2 billion with livestock and products accounting for about two thirds of the total and crops (including specialty crops) accounting for the balance. In terms of cash receipts, Pennsylvania is the largest agricultural production state in the Northeast followed by New York and Maryland.

A mixed-integer linear programming model was formulated to minimize the cost of transport and processing of excess manure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The results showed that primarily poultry manure was moved out of surplus counties for land application or processing. In the base model, annual cost was more than $350 million, with the bulk of the cost arising from construction of energy facilities for poultry manure. Forestland application of poultry manure had the lowest average cost, and more forestland than agricultural land was used for manure application. The lowest cost scenario was $127 million annually when constraints were removed to expand manure application on agricultural land and allow unlimited construction of composting facilities. Such a low-cost solution could not realistically be implemented without further development of markets for compost.

Climate change will increase variability in temperature and precipitation on rangelands, impacting ecosystem services including livestock grazing. Facing uncertainty about future climate, managers must know if current practices will maintain rangeland sustainability. Herein, the future density of an invasive species, broom snakeweed, is estimated using a long-term ecological dataset and climate projections. We find that livestock stocking rates determined using a current method result in lower forage production, allowable stocking rate, and grazing value than an economically efficient stocking rate. Results indicate that using ecology and adaptive methods in management are critical to the sustainability of rangelands.

Evaluations of generic advertising programs by commodity check-off programs involve analyses of counterfactual scenarios in which advertising and promotion expenditures are set to zero over the program's history. In actual practice, the counterfactual is rarely realized. We present a case in which such a natural experiment occurred when generic advertising and promotion expenditures for U.S. orange juice were cut nearly to zero. Using structural econometric and autoregression models, we estimate losses in consumption and sales revenue and examine the time required for the market for orange juice to recover from the check-off's strategy of going nearly dark.

We use a stated choice experiment to estimate household willingness-to-pay for a program providing incentives to private forest land owners in the Red Hills region of southwest Georgia and northwest Florida. The estimated values of various program attributes inform a landscape analysis that identifies high-priority private forest land that could be targeted for conservation incentives. Households report an increase in utility from the program when it explicitly identifies a target ecosystem-service priority. Also, inclusion of stated preference values in the prioritization plan highlights a potential scarcity effect that has important implications for conservation targeting.

Sensitivity of the general public to pollution of air, water and land has been rapidly increasing as urban development spreads into rural areas of Maryland, the Northeast and the nation. Among the rural groups who have become vitally concerned with this situation are dairy farmers. They are especially concerned over impending regulations for handling animal wastes and the possible effect on the economics of dairy operations.

The signing of the Uruguay Round agreement on agriculture (URAA) in 1994 was a significant step towards the liberalization of world agricultural trade. A new round of negotiations on agriculture is scheduled to begin under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO) at the end of 1999. This paper discusses the likely agenda of those negotiations and their implications for agriculture in the northeastern United States.

Since 1980, incremental state and national policy decisions concerning public higher education have had a variety of effects on students and institutions. Although there has been very little research, most of these effects appear to be detrimental to the health of the system of public higher education and to the nation's stock of human capital. A thorough economic analysis of the effects of policy changes on public higher education is needed to guide the system into the 21st century.

This paper provides the model, analysis, and results of the investigative research by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) staff on the U.S. lamb market impacts from the countervailing duty (CVD) order imposed on certain U.S. imports of New Zealand lamb meat during 1985–90. Presented here are the monthly three-stage least squares model of the U.S. lamb meat industry at the wholesale or meat-packing level, along with the econometric results and analyses obtained from the USITC investigation. Analysis of model results quantifies average estimated CVD-attributed effects on U.S. lamb price, demand and supply of domestically produced lamb, and U.S. lamb import levels. A number of economic parameter estimates and inference results concerning U.S. wholesale lamb market relationships are reported and are of interest, given the scarce published research on the U.S. lamb industry.

An issue for generic advertising in agricultural markets with unregulated supplies is that the promotion-induced demand shift could lead to a supply response that substantially attenuates the price effects of the promotion. For the generic promotion of fish exports, however, the concern is generally just the opposite—the possibility that extensive government supply controls could render promotion efforts to expand export sales ineffectual due to little or no supply response. This study considers the effects of government whitefish (cod, haddock, and others) supply controls on the effectiveness of the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) whitefish export promotion program. We use an econometric simulation model to measure the effectiveness and returns to NSC whitefish export promotion under a range of possible export supply control conditions. Results indicate that effective supply control maximizes the return to promotion and that ineffectual supply control imposes a potentially large opportunity cost on the promoting industry.

Major changes in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) food packages that were implemented in 2009 included reductions in the amount of milk and 100% juices, as well as the removal of whole milk from food packages. In analyzing the effect of these changes on the beverage consumption of Texas WIC children ages two to four, we found a significant decrease in the amount of whole milk consumed, and this decrease was partially offset by the increase in the amount of lower-fat milks consumed. Intakes of both desirable and undesirable nutrients from milk were decreased.

Crop insurance has been linked to changes in farm production decisions. In this study, we examine the effects of crop insurance participation and coverage on farm input use. Using a 1993–2016 panel of Kansas farms, evidence exists that insured farms apply more farm chemicals and seed per acre than uninsured farms. We use a fixed effects instrumental variable estimator to obtain the effects of change in crop insurance coverage on farm input use accounting farm-level heterogeneity. Empirical evidence suggests that changes in the levels of crop insurance coverage do not significantly affect farm chemical use. Thus, moral hazard effects from purchasing crop insurance are not large on a per acre basis but can lead to expenditures of $6,100 per farm.

It was an unexpected pleasure to be invited to speak before the opening session of the Northeast Agricultural Economics Council. I assume that I am not here on the strength of my earlier writings on “American Triracial Isolates” or “The Increase in Divorce Among Separated Persons as a Factor in Divorce Since 1940”. Clearly it is the perceived significance of shifts in the distribution of population in this decade that brings a demographer — and a noneconomic one at that — to occupy this place on your program.