Potatoes suitable for frozen french fries are harvested in the fall and then apportioned for the rest of the year by processors. This involves storage in either fresh or frozen form. Participants in both the fresh and french fry market consider the level of frozen french fry stocks to be an important determinant of activity in these markets and therefore use stock information to form price expectations [Phillips et al., 16–18]. The ability to forecast the future level of stocks with some accuracy would undoubtedly be an additional aid in developing market strategies. This paper provides one means of forecasting frozen french fry stocks.

The decision to adopt a potentially profitable but unfamiliar conservation technology is cast in a multi-period Bayesian framework. Specifically, dairy farmers who are both risk-averse and susceptible to peer group influence progressively learn about the true impact of adopting reduced phosphorus dairy diets on their income distributions as they repeatedly experiment with this new technology. Empirically calibrated simulations are used to examine the effects of a voluntary green payment program on the rate of technological diffusion. Results suggest that (a) green payments can accelerate learning and produce significant, permanent changes in behavior relatively quickly and for a reasonable cost; (b) shorter contracts offering larger incentives may be more cost-effective when learning plays an important role in behavioral change; and (c) unknown prior beliefs can reduce the efficacy of a green payment program, implying efforts to verify these priors or to ensure against them by increasing the payment level may be worthwhile.

Part-time farming in Maryland and the Northeast with full-time off-farm employment of one or more of the farm operators is competitive income-wise with many types and sizes of commercial farms. Individuals, families, and society in general will benefit in the future from the encouragement of fuller utilization of underutilized or unemployed rural resources to produce marketable agricultural output and subsistence types of food for household and local charitable purposes. Labor extensive types of crop and animal production activities have increased relatively and absolutely during the past decade on Maryland and Northeastern part-time farms. Average characteristics of a sample of 80 part-time farmers showed 1) age of male operator – 44 years, 2) education of operator − 12 years, 3) number of children on the farm − 3 children, 4) years of experience in farming − 15 years, 5) days of off-farm employment − 225 days, 6) proximity of off-farm job to a major metropolitan center − 20 miles and 7) distance to off-farm job − 29 miles.

A long term whole farm analysis comparing conventional and low-input farming systems is reviewed. A computational error led to the mistaken conclusion that conventional farming with government programs is less preferred by risk-averse farmers than the low input alternative. The greater income variance of conventional agriculture need not make it less preferred provided a higher mean income sufficiently offsets the higher variance.

There is some concern that geographic patterns of dairy cooperative membership, and customary relationships among milk assemblers and processors, may inhibit milk marketing efficiency in the Northeast. Raw milk assembly patterns and hard product manufacturing plant locations are here developed which minimize total regional costs of these functions. Solutions are highly sensitive to season, day-of-the-week, and capacity assumptions. Evidence strongly suggests that regional coordination of milk assembly and manufacturing would result in cost savings and in some re-alignment of present milk shipment patterns.

Canadian agricultural trade promotion expenditures have dramatically increased from C$.4 million in 1969/70 to C$26.5 million in 1981/82. To evaluate the effect of these expenditures on agricultural exports an econometric analysis is presented in this study. The extended distributed lag model for export demand is developed and estimated using an iterative autoregressive least squares with instrumental variable (IALSI) method of estimation. The results reveal that the trade promotion programs (aggregate expenditure levels) have had a statistically significant effect on agricultural exports. The analysis of dynamic multipliers indicates that the effect of trade promotion expenditure on export levels is likely to decline gradually and last for about a five-year period. Also, the real export demand for aggregate agricultural products is found close to unitary elastic with respect to the real export price variable.

Contamination of groundwater by agricultural practices presents a dilemma between protecting a vital resource and maintaining a valuable part of the economy. Policies to balance these objectives are presented. In addition to an historical baseline, policies that ban certain pesticides, taxes and subsidies, and control cultural practices are also considered. A model is developed to reflect the current state of agriculture in Eastern Suffolk County. This model consists of a recursive programming component, which has input for it generated by a stochastic model of Colorado potato beetle pest dynamics and management strategies to control those pests. While income is reduced by banning pesticides, the reduction is small when compared with the improvement in environmental quality. Further efforts to reduce pesticide use resulted in a reduction in potato acreage and incomes, as well as yields. Analysis concludes that improvements in both farm income and environmental quality could be achieved through the adoption of subsidies for low-input conservation crops.

The United States is facing a seemingly overwhelming problem of how to dispose of its solid waste. For disposal solutions to be viable, they must be environmentally sound and economically viable. Processing waste newspapers for farm-animal bedding offers a successful partial solution that meets both criteria. Centralized newspaper chopping is found to cost less than on-farm chopping. Both chopped and unchopped waste newspapers can be economically transported considerable distances. The use of waste newspapers for animal bedding is economically attractive at the farm level and can provide a partial solution to the solid-waste disposal problem.