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Inference to the Best Explanation: A Common and Effective Form of Archaeological Reasoning

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Lars Fogelin
Lars Fogelin*
Affiliation:
Department of Anthropology and Sociology, Albion College, 611 East Porter St., Albion, MI 49224 (LFogelin@Albion.edu)
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Abstract

Processual and postprocessual archaeologists implicitly employ the same epistemological system to evaluate the worth of different explanations: inference to the best explanation. This is good since inference to the best explanation is the most effective epistemological approach to archaeological reasoning available. Underlying the logic of inference to the best explanation is the assumption that the explanation that accounts for the most evidence is also most likely to be true. This view of explanation often reflects the practice of archaeological reasoning better than either the hypothetico-deductive method or hermeneutics. This article explores the logic of inference to the best explanation and provides clear criteria to determine what makes one explanation better than another. Explanations that are empirically broad, general, modest, conservative, simple, testable, and address many perspectives are better than explanations that are not. This article also introduces a system of understanding explanation that emphasizes the role of contrastive pairings in the construction of specific explanations. This view of explanation allows for a better understanding of when, and when not, to engage in the testing of specific explanations.

Résumé

Résumé

Arqueólogos de las orientaciones teóricas procesual y postprocesual, implícitamente emplean el mismo sistema epistemológico para evaluar el mérito de diferentes interpretaciones: inferencia a la mejor explicación. Esto es bueno ya que inferencia a la mejor explicación es el método epistemológico más efectivo del razonamiento arqueológico disponible. Fundamental a esta lógica es la suposición de que la explicación que incorpora la mayor evidencia es también la más probable de ser verdad. Este método de explicación refleja más correctamente la práctica real del razonamiento arqueológico comparado con el método hipotético-deductivo o la hermenéutica. Este ensayo explora la lógica de la inferencia a la mejor explicación y proporciona criterios claros para determinar que hace una explicación mejor que otra. Las explicaciones que son empíricamente comprensivas, generales, modestas, conservativas, simples, que son refutables y que hacen referencia a múltiples perspectivas son mejor que las explicaciones que no lo son. Este ensayo además introduce un sistema para el entendimiento de explicaciones que acentúa el papel que juegan pares contrastantes en la construcción de explicaciones específicas. Esta perspectiva de explicación permite un mejor entendimiento de cuando, y cuando no, es necesario probar explicaciones específicas.

Type
Articles
Information
American Antiquity , Volume 72 , Issue 4 , October 2007 , pp. 603 - 626
Copyright
Copyright © The Society for American Archaeology 2007

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