The invasion of Ukraine has unleashed massive humanitarian consequences, including displacement of a significant portion of Ukraine's population, deaths of civilians, and widespread damage to civilian infrastructure in the country. The conflict's effects on wheat exports may also cause humanitarian harms around the world. Neighboring countries and others have taken in Ukrainian refugees, and many governments and other entities have offered humanitarian assistance, though even after the fighting is over, recovery and rebuilding will be a long process.
The ongoing conflict makes accurate reports of casualties difficult, but the human toll of the invasion is clearly high and growing. On March 12, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that 1,300 Ukrainian military personnel had been killed;Footnote 1 that number has not been verified.Footnote 2 The toll among civilians appears to be even higher. Through April 28, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights officially recorded 2,829 civilian casualties, but believes the actual numbers are significantly higher.Footnote 3 Media reports indicate that since “Russian forces withdrew in early April, mass civilian graves have been found in most towns” around Kyiv that the Russians had occupied,Footnote 4 and satellite images suggest Russian forces dug even larger mass graves near the long besieged city of Mariupol.Footnote 5
In addition to widespread civilian deaths, the conflict has also caused mass displacement of Ukrainian civilians. On April 1, the International Organization for Migration estimated that over four million Ukrainians had become refugees, and a further seven million were internally displaced.Footnote 6 These totals represent one quarter of Ukraine's population of 44 million.Footnote 7 Such rapid displacement is unprecedented in modern history,Footnote 8 and the United Nations has “projected that the number of refugees could rise to 8.3 million by” the end of 2022.Footnote 9 Estimates suggest that a further twelve million people remaining in Ukraine need humanitarian aid.Footnote 10
European countries have taken steps to welcome Ukrainian refugees. On March 4, the European Union (EU) activated its “Temporary Protection Directive,” which grants asylum seekers from Ukraine a range of protections, including a residence permit and the ability to obtain housing and employment.Footnote 11 This is the first time the Directive has been activated since its adoption in 2001 in response to wars in the former Yugoslavia.Footnote 12 However, there are concerns that individual countries may not be able to absorb the large numbers of refugees arriving. Countries bordering Ukraine have been bearing the brunt of the refugee crisis. For example, in the first three weeks after the invasion, Poland welcomed over 1.7 million refugees from Ukraine.Footnote 13 Moldova, which has a population of 2.59 million, took in more than 420,000 refugees as of April 21.Footnote 14 Germany recently called for more even distribution of refugees throughout Europe.Footnote 15 The United Kingdom has promised to expedite visas for Ukrainians and offer more support for those arriving.Footnote 16 Stating that “‘this is an international responsibility,’”Footnote 17 U.S. President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has pledged that the United States will welcome up to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees,Footnote 18 and the Biden administration has launched “Uniting for Ukraine,” which it describes as “a streamlined process for Ukrainian citizens who have been displaced by Russia's aggression to apply for humanitarian parole in the United States.”Footnote 19
Governments worldwide are providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine to address the impacts of the conflict.Footnote 20 Although the United States is taking in many fewer refugees than countries neighboring Ukraine, it is the largest donor of humanitarian aid to the country.Footnote 21 According to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), through the end of March, the United States pledged $301 million in humanitarian funding to address the Ukraine crisis. Footnote 22 Through April 17, the EU had released €143 million in humanitarian aid,Footnote 23 as well as developed logistical hubs to deploy medical aid.Footnote 24 Numerous countries outside Europe, including Australia,Footnote 25 New Zealand,Footnote 26 and Japan,Footnote 27 have also committed varying levels of aid, and non-governmental organizations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and World Central Kitchen, have provided support on the ground in Ukraine and neighboring countries.Footnote 28 However, ongoing fighting has hampered both civilian evacuations and aid delivery.Footnote 29
Concerns are also increasing about the conflict's effects on food supplies around the world, particularly in low-income countries. Russia and Ukraine export a substantial portion of the world's grain products, including a quarter of the world's wheat supply.Footnote 30 The COVID-19 pandemic had already increased prices of important commodities like wheat in 2021, but those prices have continued to increase since the invasion.Footnote 31 Russian ships have blocked Ukraine from exporting wheat via ports on the Black Sea,Footnote 32 and in order to “‘protect the domestic food market,’” Russia has limited its own exports, including banning grain exports to ex-Soviet countries that are part of the Eurasian Economic Union and “not subject to Russia's grain export quotas.”Footnote 33 Ukrainian officials and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization have also alleged that “Russian troops have looted stocks of Ukrainian grain and destroyed grain storage facilities, compounding the widespread destruction and suffering inflicted in the war.”Footnote 34 The disruption of grain supplies risks significant consequences worldwide. The World Food Programme “buys half of its grain from Ukraine,”Footnote 35 and UN officials have warned that “[t]he conflict threatens to exacerbate other crises—such as those in Afghanistan, Yemen, and the Horn of Africa—as those countries and regions are already grappling with food insecurity and economic fragility.”Footnote 36 To mitigate some of the harms to low-income countries, the United States has announced that it will provide $670 million in aid to Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and Yemen in response to food insecurity exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.Footnote 37
Even after the fighting ceases, remediating the conflict's effects on civilian life in Ukraine will take significant resources and time. The remnants of war, particularly landmines and other explosive devices, pose ongoing hazards to civilians. Through the end of May, Ukraine's State Emergency Services had cleared more than 127,000 “explosive devices,”Footnote 38 and estimates suggest that half of Ukrainian territory will require de-mining when the conflict concludes.Footnote 39 Ukraine will also need significant resources for rebuilding. The UN estimated that $100 billion worth of Ukrainian infrastructure was damaged in just the first three weeks after the invasion.Footnote 40
Amidst the destruction, there are, however, hopeful signs. By mid-May, with fighting having shifted to the eastern portion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian border service reported that “[m]ore people have returned to Ukraine than left the country in recent days.”Footnote 41
