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“Economic and Political Integration in Europe: A Time-Series Quasi-Experimental Analysis”*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

James A. Caporaso  and
Alan L. Pelowski
James A. Caporaso
Affiliation:
Northwestern University
Alan L. Pelowski
Affiliation:
Lancaster University
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Abstract

Changes in political decision-making outputs and trading activities in the European Economic Community are examined around three quasi-experimental events (formation of the EEC in 1958, first agricultural package in 1962, and the agricultural crisis in 1965–66). On the basis of a preliminary analysis, nine variables were selected for inclusion in the study (three political decision variables and six trade indicators); these were then subjected to “interrupted time-series analysis,” through which the quasi-experimental effects of the three events were assessed for statistical significance (t-tests and autocorrelation measures) and theoretical validity (through the elimination of plausible rival interpretations).

Political integration in the EEC is viewed as (1) positive growth in system indicators, and (2) increased mutual responsiveness among the major components or subsystems of the EEC. Results of the quasi-experimental analyses suggest that despite high positive growth in the selected variables, mutual responsiveness among system parts remains quite low; therefore, the principal conclusion drawn is that the EEC is a “weakly” integrating system—a collection of structures growing rapidly in many directions, with each structure very imperfectly responsive to the behavior of others.

The paper urges and attempts to demonstrate the methodological usefulness of applying the logic of experimentation to ex-post-facto research. This approach entails the demonstration that non-random variation in independent and dependent variables has occurred, that these variables are related in some way, and that the relationship is nonspurious—that is, that the important confounding variables have been controlled by eliminating plausible rival hypotheses through statistical and analytical procedures.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 65 , Issue 2 , June 1971 , pp. 418 - 433
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1971

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Footnotes

*

The authors wish to thank Donald T. Campbell for providing stimulating intellectual support and highly useful criticism. Our thanks also to the staff of the Simulated International Processes Project for their provision of on-line, interactive computing facilities.

References

1 For a discussion and elaboration of this point, see Smelser's, Neil “The Methodology of Comparative Analysis of Economic Activity” in Smelser, , Essays on Sociological Explanation (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1968), pp. 62–75 Google Scholar.

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18 Three criteria were developed for selecting among the “candidate” socially given events that highlight Common Market development. First, we asked whether the event could have general significance for system-wide performances (trade flows, political decision-making). Second, we wanted to get maximum spacing in time between any two quasi-experiments. We hypothesized that increasing the interval between experiments would increase the probability that each experiment could be interpreted in “relative isolation” from others—realizing of course that even “ideal” spacing would not permit inferences from “closed systems.” Third, we selected events with the potential for relatively short-term, “discontinuous” effects. This criterion meant that sudden, immediately applied quasi-experiments would be selected for study before smoother, generally anticipated events.

19 We began with a matrix of over 40 variables and between 35 and 47 quarterly time-points. This was first reduced by eliminating covariant nation-specific trade indicators (on the basis of a dimensional analysis). Caporaso, James A., “Functionalism and International Integration,” Diss., University of Pennsylvania, 1968 Google Scholar.

20 The reduction accomplished by dimensional and theoretical analyses was considerable—leaving us with a matrix of 25 variables rather than the original 40. Of this remaining set we then asked “Does each variable have the statistical potential to respond at all to the occurrence of quasi-experiments of a discontinuous sort?” To answer this question we employed extensive variable-by-variable “sensitivity analysis” involving auto-correlational and trend removal techniques. This analysis was aimed at determining the relative inlra-variable predictability over time; the greater the intra-variable predictability in a variable the less likely that the variable would “respond significantly” to the occurrence of the selected quasiexperiments. Techniques employed were adopted from Smoker, Paul, “A Time Series Analysis of Sino-Indian Relations,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 13, no. 2, 1969, pp. 172–191 Google Scholar. The end result was a set of nine variables—each meeting our a priori theoretical and statistical tests.

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23 All trade indicators were collected from Commodity Trade Statistics, United Nations Statistical Papers, Series D., New York; the data on decisions and regulations were collected from the Bulletin of the EEC, Commission of the Common Market, Luxembourg.

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25 For an excellent discussion of the entire decisionmaking process, from the role of the Commission and Council of Ministers to the part played by the Committee of Permanent Representatives and pressure groups, see La Décision dans les Communautés Européennes. under the direction of Gerber, Pierre and Pepy, Daniel (Bruxelles, Belgique: Presses Universitaires de Bruxelles, 1969)Google Scholar.

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27 An early application has been provided by Campbell, , “The Connecticut Crackdown,” 1968 Google Scholar, along with Glass, , “Connecticut Speeding Crackdown,” 1968 Google Scholar. A later effort has been that by Pelowski, Alan L., “A Research Note on the Use of a Quasi-Experimental Design in the Study of International Organization and War,” 1969(a), mimeoGoogle Scholar.

28 By which we mean our experimental decisionpoints: Formation, Agricultural Package, and Crisis.

29 Calculations were performed on time-sharing computers with programs originally developed by Sween and Campbell. ( Sween, Joyce and Campbell, D. T., “A Study of the Effects of Proximally Autocorrelated Error on Tests of Significance for the Interrupted Time Series Quasi-Experimental Design,” mimeo, Northwestern University, 1965 Google Scholar; and Sween, Joyce and Campbell, D. T., “The Interrupted Time Series as Quasi-Experiment: Three Tests of Significance,” 1965, Northwestern University, mimeo, pp. 1–39.Google Scholar), and converted to time-sharing by the authors, ( Pelowski, Alan L., “PINTR: A Version of Timex for On-Line Use,” 1969(b)Google Scholar.

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33 The Monte-Carlo simulation method employs pseudo-random variates to obtain estimates of solutions that (supposedly) cannot be obtained by analytical procedures (such as the areas of complex volumes).

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38 See Krause, Lawrence B., European Economic Integration and the United States (Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1968)Google Scholar, for a more extensive treatment of the agricultural policy, as well as Lindberg, and Scheingold, , Europe's Would-Be Polity, 1970 Google Scholar.

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40 We should note that the Regulations adopted in January 1962 did not bring into existence a common agricultural policy immediately but rather provided the framework for the gradual establishment of agricultural policies from 1962 to 1970, the end of the transition period. In addition, no common price policy existed as yet and governments could intervene in a variety of ways to distort competition and affect trade. (See Lindberg, and Scheingold, , Europe's Would-Be Polity, 1970 Google Scholar, for a discussion of the fragmentary nature of these Regulations.)

41 Compare these results with the data and interpretation provided by Fisher, William E., “An Analysis of the Deutsch Sociocausal Paradigm of Political Integration,” International Organization, 23, 2 (Spring, 1969), especially pp. 271–273 CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Fisher's data are not strictly comparable for a variety of reasons, among which are that he includes in his measure of output performance Community acts not examined here (e.g., recommendations and directives) and that he weights his indicators.

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50 In general, this may be referred to as the “Functionalist School” of international integration theory of which David Mitrany is sometimes considered the founding intellectual father.

51 Lindberg, , “The European Community,” 1967 Google Scholar; Feld, Werner, The European Common Market and the World, (New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1967)Google Scholar; Etzioni, , “Epigenesis of Political Communities,” 1963 Google Scholar.

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54 Popper, Karl, Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge (New York: Harper Torchbooks, 1963)Google Scholar.

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