Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-j824f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-13T01:58:06.606Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 September 2013

Mark J. Gasiorowski
Mark J. Gasiorowski
Affiliation:
Louisiana State University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

I examine the effect of economic crises on domestic political regime change. Using a statistical technique known as event history analysis and a new data set that identifies all instances of regime change in the 97 largest Third World countries, I develop multivariate models of democratic breakdown and democratic transition. My main findings are that inflationary crises inhibited democratization from the 1950s through the early 1970s but may have facilitated it in the late 1980s and that recessionary crises facilitated democratic breakdown but had no effect on democratic transition throughout this period. The inflation findings—though not the recession findings—support the arguments of Karen Remmer and Samuel Huntington that the processes affecting democratization were very different in the 1980s than in earlier eras. A number of other explanatory variables emerge as significant determinants of regime change, providing support for several other contentions that have appeared in the literature.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 89 , Issue 4 , December 1995 , pp. 882 - 897
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1995

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aiken, Leona S., and West, Stephen G.. 1991. Multiple Regression: Testing and Interpreting Interactions. Newbury Park: Sage.Google Scholar
Allison, Paul D. 1984. Event History Analysis: Regression for Longitudinal Event Data. Beverly Hills: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Almond, Gabriel A. 1980. “The Intellectual History of the Civic Culture Concept.” In The Civic Culture Revisited, ed. Almond, Gabriel A. and Verba, Sidney. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Arat, Zehra F. 1991. Democracy and Human Rights In Developing Countries. Boulder: Rienner.Google Scholar
Baloyra, Enrique A., ed. 1987. Comparing New Democracies: Transition and Consolidation in Mediterranean Europe and the Southern Cone. Boulder: Westview.Google Scholar
Banks, Arthur S. 1979. Cross-national Time-Series Data Archive: User's Manual. Rev. ed. Binghamton: State University of New York.Google Scholar
Bermeo, Nancy. 1990. “Rethinking Regime Change.” Comparative Politics 22:359–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berry, Frances Stokes, and Berry, William D.. 1990. “State Lottery Adoptions as Policy Innovations: An Event History Analysis.” American Political Science Review 84:395–415.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bienen, Henry, and Walle, Nicolas Van de. 1989. “Time and Power in Africa.” American Political Science Review 83:19–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blossfeld, Hans-Peter, Hamerle, Alfred, and Mayer, Karl Ulrich. 1989. Event History Analysis: Statistical Theory and Application in the Social Sciences. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum Associates.Google Scholar
Bollen, Kenneth A. 1979. “Political Democracy and the Timing of Development.” American Sociological Review 44:572–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollen, Kenneth A. 1980. “Issues in the Comparative Measurement of Political Democracy.” American Sociological Review 45:370–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollen, Kenneth A. 1983. “World System Position, Dependence, and Democracy: The Cross-national Evidence.” American Sociological Review 48:468–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollen, Kenneth A. 1990. “Political Democracy: Conceptual and Measurement Traps.” Studies in Comparative International Development 25:7–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burkhart, Ross E., and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 1994. “Comparative Democracy: The Economic Development Thesis.” American Political Science Review 88:903–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chirot, Daniel. 1977. Social Change in the Twentieth Century. San Diego: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.Google Scholar
Cnudde, Charles F., and Neubauer, Deane E., eds. 1969. Empirical Democratic Theory. Chicago: Markham.Google Scholar
Collier, David, ed. 1979. The New Authoritarianism in Latin America. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Collier, Ruth Berins. 1982. Regimes in Tropical Africa: Changing Forms of Supremacy, 1945–1975. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crowther, William. 1986. “Philippine Authoritarianism and the International Economy.” Comparative Politics 18:339–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dahl, Robert A. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Deutsch, Karl W. 1961. “Social Mobilization and Political Development.” American Political Science Review 60:493–514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Di Palma, Guiseppe. 1990. To Craft Democracies: An Essay on Democratic Transitions. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry, ed. 1993. Political Culture and Democracy in Developing Countries. Boulder: Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, Larry, Linz, Juan J., and Lipset, Seymour Martin, eds. 1990. Democracy in Developing Countries. 4 vols. Boulder: Rienner.Google Scholar
Dixon, William J., Muller, Edward N., and Seligson, Mitchell A.. 1993. “Inequality and Political Violence Revisited: Response.” American Political Science Review 87:983–93.Google Scholar
Duty, Gary. 1991. “Industrialization and Regime Change in Developing Countries: A Cross-national Study.” Master's thesis, Louisiana State University.Google Scholar
Epstein, Edward C. 1984. “Legitimacy, Institutionalization, and Opposition in Exclusionary Bureaucratic-Authoritarian Regimes.” Comparative Politics 17:37–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gasiorowski, Mark J. 1988. “Economic Dependence and Political Democracy: A Cross-national Study.” Comparative Politimi Studies 20:489–515.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gasiorowski, Mark J. 1990. “The Political Regimes Project.” Studies in Comparative International Development 25:109–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gasiorowski, Mark J. 1991. U.S. Foreign Policy and the Shah: Building a Client State in Iran. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gasiorowski, Mark J. N.d. “An Overview of the Political Regime Change Dataset.” Comparative Political Studies. Forthcoming.Google Scholar
Gonick, Lev S., and Rosh, Robert M.. 1988. “The Structural Constraints of the World-Economy on National Political Development.” Comparative Political Studies 21:171–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gourevitch, Peter. 1978. “The International System and Regime Formation.” Comparative Politics 10:419–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1990. Polity II: Political Structures and Regime Change. 1800–1986, ICPSR 9263. Ann Arbor: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.Google Scholar
Hadenius, Axel. 1991. Democracy and Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hanneman, Robert A., and Steinback, Robin L.. 1990. “Military Involvement and Political Instability: An Event History Analysis 1940–1980.” Journal of Political and Military Sociology 18:1–23.Google Scholar
Hannon, Michael T., and Carroll, Glenn R.. 1981. “Dynamics of Formal Political Structure: An Event-History Analysis.” American Sociological Review 46:19–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1984. “Will More Countries Become Democratic?” Political Science Quarterly 99:193–218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
Im, Hyug Baeg. 1987. “The Rise of Bureaucratic Authoritarianism in South Korea.” World Politics 39:231–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
International Monetary Fund. 1988. International Financial Statistics Yearbook 1988. Washington: IMF.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund. 1993. International Financial Statistics Yearbook 1993. Washington: IMF.Google Scholar
Jackson, Robert H., and Rosberg, Carl G.. 1982. “Why Africa's Weak States Persist: The Empirical and Juridical in Statehood.” World Politics 35:1–24.Google Scholar
Kaufman, Robert R. 1976. Transition to Stable Authoritarian-Corporate Regimes: The Chilean Case? Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Kaufman, Robert R. 1979. “Industrial Change and Authoritarian Rule in Latin America: A Concrete Review of the Bureaucratic-Authoritarian Model.” In The New Authoritarianism in Latin America, ed. Collier, David. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert. 1992. “Political Regime Change: Structure and Process-driven Explanations.” American Political Science Review 86:1028–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kurth, James R. 1979. “Industrial Change and Political Change: A European Perspective.” In The New Authoritarianism in Latin America, ed. Collier, David. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Lerner, Daniel. 1958. The Passing of Traditional Society. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.Google Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. 1977. Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Linz, Juan J. 1978. The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Crisis, Breakdown, & Reequilibration. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Linz, Juan J. 1994. “Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy: Does It Make a Difference?” In The Failure of Presidential Democracy, vol. 2: The Case of Latin America, ed. Linz, Juan J. and Valenzuela, Arturo. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1959. “Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy.” American Political Science Review 53:69–105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Londregan, John B., and Poole, Keith T.. 1990. “Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power.” World Politics 42:151–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Long, David E., and Reich, Bernard, eds. 1986. The Government and Politics of the Middle East and North Africa. 2d ed.Boulder: Westview.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott. 1993. “Presidentialism, Multipartyism, and Democracy: the Difficult Combination.” Comparative Political Studies 26:198–228.Google Scholar
Malloy, James M. 1987. “The Politics of Transition in Latin America.” In Authoritarians and Democrats, ed. Malloy, James M. and Seligson, Mitchell A.. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.Google Scholar
Malloy, James M., and Seligson, Mitchell A., eds. 1987. Authoritarians and Democrats: Regime Transition in Latin America. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.Google Scholar
Markoff, John, and Duncan Baretta, Silvio R.. 1990. “Economic Crisis and Regime Change in Brazil: The 1960s and the 1980s.” Comparative Politics 22:421–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moore, Barrington. 1966. Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord and Peasant in the Making of the Modern World. Boston: Beacon.Google Scholar
Muller, Edward N. 1985. “Dependent Economic Development, Aid Dependence on the United States, and Democratic Breakdown in the Third World.” International Studies Quarterly 29:445–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Muller, Edward N. 1988. “Democracy, Economic Development, and Income Inequality.” American Sociological Review 53:50–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo A. 1973. Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics. Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, University of California.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo A. 1978. “Reflections on the Pattern of Change in the Bureaucratic-Authoritarian State.” Latin American Research Review 13:3–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo A. 1988. Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Argentina, 1966–1973, in Comparative Perspective. Berkeley: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo A., Schmitter, Philippe C., and Whitehead, Laurence, eds. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Poulantzas, Nicos. 1974. Fascism and Dictatorship. London: New Left Books.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1986. “Some Problems in the Study of the Transition to Democracy.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, ed. O'Donnell, Guillermo A., Schmitter, Philippe C., and Whitehead, Laurence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Remmer, Karen L. 1990. “Debt or Democracy? The Political Impact of the Debt Crisis in Latin America.” In Debt and Transfiguration? Prospects for Latin America's Economic Revival, ed. Felix, David. Armonk, NY: Sharp.Google Scholar
Remmer, Karen L., and Merkx, Gilbert W.. 1982. “Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism Revisited.” Latin American Research Review 17:3–40.Google Scholar
Richards, Gordon. 1986. “Stabilization Crises and the Breakdown of Military Authoritarianism in Latin America.” Comparative Political Studies 18:447–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roett, Riordan. 1985. “The Foreign Debt Crisis and the Process of Redemocratization in Latin America.” In A Dance along the Precipice, ed. Eskridge, William N. Jr., Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
Rouquié, Alain. 1986. “Demilitarization and the Institutionalization of Military-dominated Polities in Latin America.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, ed. O'Donnell, Guillermo A., Schmitter, Philippe C., and Whitehead, Laurence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Rueschemeyer, Dietrich, Stephens, Evelyne Huber, and Stephens, John D.. 1992. Capitalist Development and Democracy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Rustow, Dankwart A. 1970. “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model.” Comparative Politics 2:337–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Skidmore, Thomas E. 1977. “The Politics of Economic Stabilization in Postwar Latin America.” In Authoritarianism and Corporatism in Latin America, ed. Malloy, James M.. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.Google Scholar
Stepan, Alfred. 1973. “The New Professionalism of Internal Warfare and Military Role Expansion.” In Authoritarian Brazil, ed. Stepan, Alfred. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Summers, Robert, and Heston, Alan. 1991. “The Penn World Table Mark 5: An Expanded Set of International Comparisons.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 56:327–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Szymanski, Albert. 1981. The Logic of Imperialism. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Taylor, Charles Lewis, and Hudson, Michael C.. 1972. World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators. 2d ed.New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Thomas, Calvin Y. 1984. The Rise of the Authoritarian State in Peripheral Societies. New York: Monthly Review.Google Scholar
Tuma, Nancy Brandon, and Hannan, Michael T.. 1984. Social Dynamics: Models and Methods. Orlando, FL: Academic.Google Scholar
Vanhanen, Tatu. 1990. The Process of Democratization: A Comparative Study of 147 Stetes, 1980–1988. New York: Crane Russak.Google Scholar
Wallerstein, Michael. 1980. “The Collapse of Democracy in Brazil: Its Economic Determinants.” Latin American Research Review 15:3–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Werner, Myron. 1987. “Empirical Democratic Theory.” In Competitive Elections in Developing Countries, ed. Weiner, Myron and Ozbubun, Ergun. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.Google Scholar
Whitehead, Laurence. 1986. “International Aspects of Democratization.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, ed. O'Donnell, Guillermo A., Schmitter, Philippe C., and Whitehead, Laurence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Wiarda, Howard J., and Kline, Harvey F., eds. 1985. Latin American Politics and Development. 2d ed.Boulder: Westview.Google Scholar
Wiseman, John A. 1990. Democracy in Black Africa: Survival and Revival. New York: Paragon House.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.