Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-hc48f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T08:13:04.843Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Political Impact of Economic Crisis in Latin America in the 1980s

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Karen L. Remmer
Affiliation:
University of New Mexico

Abstract

Research on the political implications of economic conditions is separated into two relatively distinct bodies of literature. I bridge the theoretical gap between them by examining the effects of economic crisis on electoral outcomes in Latin America from 1982 to 1990. An analysis of 21 competitive elections indicates that crisis conditions undermine support for incumbents and provoke high levels of electoral volatility but without necessarily fostering the growth of political extremism or the exhaustion of elite consensus associated with the breakdown of democracy. The results also suggest that the relationship between economic conditions and electoral instability is mediated by party system structure rather than democratic age. Paradoxically, the findings buttress prior research on electoral outcomes in the comparatively stable and homogeneous Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations while undercutting theoretical frameworks elaborated with specific reference to the breakdown and consolidation of Third World democracy.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1991

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alt, James, and Chrystal, Alec. 1983. Political Economics. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Anglade, Christian, and Fortín, Carlos. 1990. “Accumulation, Adjustment, and the Autonomy of the State in Latin America.” In The State and Capital Accumulation in Latin America, vol. 2, ed. Anglade, Christian and Fortín, Carlos. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.Google Scholar
Antal, Ariane Berthoin, Dierkes, Meinolf, and Weiler, Hans N.. 1987. “Cross-National Policy Research: Traditions, Achievements, and Challenges.” In Comparative Policy Research: Learning from Experience, ed. Dierkes, Meinolf, Weiler, Hans N., and Antal, Ariane Berthoin. New York: St. Martin's.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel. 1982. “Parties, Administrations, and American Macroeconomic Outcomes.American Political Science Review 76:8394.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bellucci, Paolo. 1984. “The Effect of Aggregate Economic Conditions on the Political Preferences of the Italian Electorate, 1953–1979.European Journal of Political Research 12:387412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollen, Kenneth A., and Jackman, Robert W.. 1985. “Regression Diagnostics: An Expository Treatment of Outliers and Influential Cases.Sociological Methods and Research 13:510–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Booth, David, and Sorj, Bernardo, eds. 1983. Military Reformism and Social Classes: The Peruvian Experience, 1968–1980. New York: St. Martin's.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brady, David W. 1985. “A Reevaluation of Realignments in American Politics: Evidence from the House of Representatives.American Political Science Review 79:2849.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cardoso, Fernando Henrique, and Faletto, Enzo. 1979. Dependency and Development in Latin America. Trans. Urquidi, Marjory Mattingly. Berkeley: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Catterberg, Edgardo. 1989. Los argentinos frente a la política. Buenos Aires: Editorial Planeta.Google Scholar
Collier, David, ed. 1979. The New Authoritarianism in Latin America. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Conaghan, Catherine M., Malloy, James M., and Abugattas, Luis A.. 1990. “Business and the ‘Boys’: The Politics of Neoliberalism in the Central Andes.Latin American Research Review 25:330.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
“Concertación total: La cuadratura de círculo.” 1990. Caretas, 18 06, pp. 1112, 14–16.Google Scholar
Corkill, David, and Cubitt, David. 1988. Ecuador: Fragile Democracy. London: Latin American Bureau.Google Scholar
De Pablo, Juan Carlos. 1990. “Argentina.” In Latin American Adjustment: How Much Has Happened?, ed. Williamson, John. Washington: Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
De Riz, Liliana, Cavarozzi, Marcelo, and Feldman, Jorge. 1987. “El contexto y los dilemas de la concertación en la Argentina actual.” In Concertación político-social y democratización, ed. Santos, Mario R. dos. Buenos Aires: Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry, and Linz, Juan J.. 1989. “Introduction: Politics, Society, and Democracy in Latin America.” In Latin America, vol. 4 of Democracy in Developing Countries, ed. Diamond, Larry, Linz, Juan J., and Lipset, Seymour Martin. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry, Linz, Juan, and Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1990. “Introduction: Comparing Experiences with Democracy.” In Politics in Developing Countries, ed. Linz, Diamond, and Lipset, . Boulder: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eckstein, Harry. 1975. “Case Study and Theory in Political Science.” In Strategies of Inquiry, vol. 7 of Handbook of Political Science, ed. Greenstein, Fred I. and Polsby, Nelson W.. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. 1989. Preliminary Overview of the Economy of Latin America and the Caribbean. Santiago: United Nations.Google Scholar
Economist Intelligence Unit. 1983. Quarterly Economic Review of Venezuela, Suriname, Netherlands Antilles, no. 4.Google Scholar
Economist Intelligence Unit. 1986. Quarterly Economic Review of Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, no. 2.Google Scholar
Eulau, Heinz, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S., eds. 1985. Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes. New York: Agathon.Google Scholar
Evans, Peter. 1979. Dependent Development: The Alliance of Multinational, State, and Local Capital in Brazil. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernández, Arturo. 1987. “Sindicalismo y concertación social: La conyuntura Argentina actual.” In Concertación político-social y democratización, ed. Santos, Mario R. dos. Buenos Aires: Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales.Google Scholar
Fitz Gerald, Edmund V. K. 1979. The Political Economy of Peru 1956–1978: Economic Development and the Restructuring of Capital. London: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Franz, Gerhard. 1986. “Economic Aspirations, Well-Being, and Political Support in Recession and Boom Periods: The Case of West Germany.European Journal of Political Research 14:97112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gamarra, Eduardo A. 1989. “Mass Politics and Elite Arrangements: Elections and Democracy in Bolivia.” Presented at the International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association, Miami.Google Scholar
Garretón, Manuel Antonio. 1988. “La oposición política al regimen militar chileno: Un proceso de aprendizaje.” Documentos de Trabajo, No. 377. Facultad Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales, Santiago.Google Scholar
Handelman, Howard. 1979. “Ecuador: A New Political Direction?” American Universities Field Staff Reports, South American Series, no. 47, p. 13.Google Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr., and Fassbender, Heino, eds. 1981. Contemporary Political Economy. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Higley, John, and Burton, Michael G.. 1989. “The Elite Variable in Democratic Transitions and Breakdowns.American Sociological Review 54:1732.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hirschman, Albert O. 1987. “The Political Economy of Latin American Development: Seven Exercises in Retrospection.Latin American Research Review 22(3): 736.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huneeus, Carlos. 1986. Cambios en la opinión pública: Una aproximación al estudio de la cultura política de Chile. Santiago: Centro de Estudios de la Realidad Contemporànea.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1989. “The Modest Meaning of Democracy.” In Democracy in the Americas: Stopping the Pendulum, ed. Pastor, Robert A.. New York: Holmes & Meier.Google Scholar
Inter-American Development Bank. 19821989. Economic and Social Progress in Latin America. Washington: IADB.Google Scholar
Inter-American Dialogue. 1988. The Americas in 1988: A Time for Choices. Lanham, MD: University Press of America.Google Scholar
Inter-American Dialogue. 1989. The Americas in 1989: Consensus for Action. Lanham, MD: University Press of America.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund. 19821990. Monthly Financial Statistics. Washington: IMF.Google Scholar
Karl, Terry Lynn. 1986. “Petroleum and Political Pacts: The Transition to Democracy in Venezuela.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Latin America, ed. O'Donnell, Guillermo, Schmitter, Philippe C., and Whitehead, Laurence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Karl, Terry Lynn. 1990. “Dilemmas of Democratization in Latin America.Comparative Politics 23(1): 121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuczynski, Pedro-Pablo. 1988. Latin American Debt. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Latin America Regional Reports: Mexico and Central America, No. 1. 1986. 10 01.Google Scholar
Latin America Regional Reports: Andean Group, No. 1. 1989a. 26 01.Google Scholar
Latin America Regional Reports: Andean Group, No. 7. 1989b. 31 08.Google Scholar
Latin America Regional Reports: Southern Cone, No. 1. 1990a. 8 02.Google Scholar
Latin America Regional Reports: Southern Cone, No. 2.1990b. 15 03.Google Scholar
Latin America Regional Reports: Southern Cone, No. 3.1990c. 19 04.Google Scholar
Latin America Regional Reports: Southern Cone, No. 8, 1990d. 18 10.Google Scholar
Latin America Regional Reports: Caribbean. 1990e. 21 06.Google Scholar
Latin America Regional Reports: Andean Group. 1990f. 28 06.Google Scholar
Latin American Weekly Report, No. 17. 1986a. 2 05.Google Scholar
Latin American Weekly Report, No. 22. 1986b. 6 06.Google Scholar
Latin American Weekly Report, No. 40. 1986c. 16 10.Google Scholar
Latin American Weekly Report, No. 15. 1989. 20 04.Google Scholar
Latin American Weekly Report, No. 10. 1990a. 15 03.Google Scholar
Latin American Weekly Report, No. 27. 1990b. 19 07.Google Scholar
Latin American Weekly Report, No. 29. 1990c. 2 08.Google Scholar
Latin American Weekly Report, No. 32. 1990d. 23 08.Google Scholar
Latin American Weekly Report, No. 44. 1990e. 15 11.Google Scholar
Leonard, Dick, and Natkiel, Richard. 1987. World Atlas of Elections. London: Hodder & Stoughton.Google Scholar
Levine, Daniel H. 1978. “Venezuela since 1958: The Consolidation of Democratic Politics.” In The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Latin America, ed. Linz, Juan and Stepán, Alfred. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Levine, Daniel H. 1987. “Venezuela.” In Competitive Elections in Developing Countries, ed. Weiner, Myron and Ozbudun, Ergun. Durham: Duke University Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1988. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Linz, Juan, and Stepan, Alfred. 1989. “Political Crafting of Democratic Consolidation or Destruction: European and South American Comparisons.” In Democracy in the Americas, ed. Pastor, Robert A.. New York: Holmes & Meier.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1959. Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics. Garden City: Doubleday.Google Scholar
Londregan, John B., and Poole, Keith T.. 1990. “Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power.World Politics 42 (01): 151–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lowenthal, Abraham, ed. 19861987. Latin America and Caribbean Contemporary Record. Vol. 6. New York: Holmes & Meier.Google Scholar
McClintock, Cynthia. 1989. “Peru: Precarious Regimes, Authoritarian and Democratic.” In Latin America, vol. 4 of Democracy in Developing Countries, ed. Diamond, Larry, Linz, Juan J., and Lipset, Seymour Martin. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
McClintock, Cynthia, and Lowenthal, Abraham E., eds. 1983. The Peruvian Experiment Reconsidered. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
McGowan, Pat, and Johnson, Thomas H.. 1984. “African Military Coups d'État and Underdevelopment: A Quantitative Historical Analysis.Journal of Modern African Studies 22 (12): 633–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meyer, Lorenzo. 1989. “Democracy from Three Latin American Perspectives.” In Democracy in the Americas, ed. Pastor, Robert A.. New York: Holmes & Meier.Google Scholar
Midlarsky, Manus I., and Tanter, Raymond. 1967. “Toward a Theory of Political Instability in Latin America.Journal of Peace Research 4:1226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nelson, Joan M. 1989. “Crisis Management, Economic Reform, and Costa Rican Democracy.” In Debt and Democracy in Latin America, ed. Stallings, Barbara and Kaufman, Robert. Boulder: Westview.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo. 1973. Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism. Politics of Modernization Series, no. 9. Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, University of California.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo. 1978. “Reflections on Patterns of Change in the Bureaucratic-Authoritarian State.Latin American Research Review 13(1): 338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo. 1986. “Introduction to the Latin American Cases.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Latin America, ed. O'Donnell, Guillermo, Schmitter, Philippe C., and Whitehead, Laurence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Guillermo, O'Donnell, and Schmitter, Philippe C.. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
O'Kane, Rosemary. 1981. “A Probabilistic Approach to the Causes of Coups d'État”. British Journal of Political Science 11 (07): 287308.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Kane, Rosemary. 1983. “Toward an Examination of the General Causes of Coups d'État.European Journal of Political Research 11(03): 2744.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1986. “Some Problems in the Study of the Transition to Democracy.” In Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert D. 1967. “Toward Explaining Military Intervention in Latin American Politics.World Politics 20 (10): 83110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Remmer, Karen L. 1985. “Redemocratization and the Impact of Authoritarian Rule in Latin America.Comparative Politics 17 (04): 253–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Remmer, Karen L., and Merkx, Gilbert W.. 1982. “Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism Revisited.Latin American Research Review 17(2): 340.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rial, Juan. 1986. Uruguay: Elecciones de 1984. San José, Costa Rica: Centro Interamericano de Asesoría y Promoción Electoral, Instituto Interamericano de Derechos Humanos.Google Scholar
Roncagliolo, Rafael. 1980. ¿Quien Ganó? Elecciones 1931–80. Lima: Centro de Estudios y Promoción del Desarrollo.Google Scholar
Seligson, Mitchell A., and Gómez B., Miguel 1989. “Ordinary Elections in Extraordinary Times: The Political Economy of Voting in Costa Rica.” In Elections and Democracy in Central America, ed. Booth, John A. and Seligson, Mitchell A.. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Seligson, Mitchell A., and Muller, Edward N.. 1987. “Democratic Stability and Economic Crisis: Costa Rica, 1978–1983.International Studies Quarterly 31:301–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, William C. 1989a. Authoritarianism and the Crisis of the Argentine Political Economy. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Smith, William C. 1989b. “Heterodox Shocks and the Political Economy of Democratic Transition in Argentina and Brazil.” In Lost Promises: Debt, Austerity, and Development in Latin America, ed. Canak, William L.. Boulder: Westview.Google Scholar
Smith, William C. 1990. “Democracy, Distributional Conflicts, and Macroeconomic Policymaking in Argentina, 1983–89.Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 32(Summer): 142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stallings, Barbara. 1989. “Political Economy of Democratic Transition: Chile in the 1980s.” In Debt and Democracy in Latin America, ed. Stallings, Barbara and Kaufman, Robert. Boulder: Westview.Google Scholar
Stepan, Alfred. 1978. The State and Society: Peru in Comparative Perspective. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Stephens, Evelyne Huber. 1983. “The Peruvian Military Government, Labor Mobilization, and the Political Strength of the Left.Latin American Research Review 18(2): 5793.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thorp, Rosemary. 1979. “The Stabilisation Crisis in Peru 1975–78.” In Inflation and Stabilisation in Latin America, ed. Thorp, Rosemary and Whitehead, Laurence. New York: Holmes & Meier.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tufte, Edward R. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
U.S. House. Committee on Foreign Affairs. 1986. Global Debt Crisis. 99th Cong., 2d sess.Google Scholar
Visser, Wessel, and Wijnhoven, Rien. 1990. “Politics Do Matter, but Does Unemployment?European Journal of Political Research 18:7196.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waterman, Richard W. 1990. “Institutional Realignment: The Composition of the U.S. Congress.Western Political Quarterly 43:8192.Google Scholar
Whitehead, Laurence. 1989. “The Consolidation of Fragile Democracies: A Discussion with Illustrations.” In Democracy in the Americas, ed. Pastor, Robert A.. New York: Holmes & Meier.Google Scholar
Whiteley, Paul F. 1986. “Macroeconomic Performance and Government Popularity in Britain: The Short-Run Dynamics.European Journal of Political Research 14:4561.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williamson, John, ed. 1990. Latin American Adjustment: How Much Has Happened? Washington: Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
Wise, Carol. 1989. “Democratization, Crisis, and the APRA's Modernization Project in Peru.” In Debt and Democracy in Latin America, ed. Stallings, Barbara and Kaufman, Robert. Boulder: Westview.Google Scholar
Zimmermann, Ekkart, and Saalfeld, Thomas. 1988. “Economic and Political Reactions to the World Economic Crisis of the 1930s in Six European Countries.international Studies Quarterly 32: 305–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.