Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T07:42:52.707Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Post-Coup Military Spending Question: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Time Series Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Gary Zuk  and
William R. Thompson
Gary Zuk
Affiliation:
Florida State University
William R. Thompson
Affiliation:
Florida State University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Despite or because of a decade of research that yielded conflicting results, the question of whether or not military coups or regimes brought into power through coups have an impact on subsequent military spending remains open. A review of the relevant literature suggests that part of the analytical problem may result from assumptions about military political behavior as well as various limitations associated with cross-national analyses of change, and the use of exclusively cross-sectional or longitudinal research designs. In addition, some of the disparity in research findings may result from the reliance on different indicators—both dependent and independent—by a number of different analysts. In response to these potential technical problems, this analysis of military spending patterns in 66 less-developed states applies a GLS routine, pooling cross-sectional and time-series data, to the 1967–1976 relationships between two measures of military spending and several predictor variables, including regime type, coup occurrences, level of conflict, economic development, arms imports, and previous military spending. Although the empirical outcome varies according to which dependent variable is examined, we find, in general, that information on the distribution and timing of regime types—military, civilian, and mixed—and successful military coups is not very helpful in predicting post-coup military spending policies. This finding suggests, in turn, that the crucial presumption that military personnel participate in politics primarily to defend or advance their corporate interests is not a very useful predictive foundation for the examination of post-coup military spending.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 76 , Issue 1 , March 1982 , pp. 60 - 74
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1982

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adelman, Irma and Morria, Cynthia Taft (1967). Society, Politics, and Economic Development. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Banks, Arthur S. (1971). Cross-Polity Time-Series Data. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Banks, Arthur S. and Textor, Robert B. (1963). A Cross-Polity Survey. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Benoit, Emile (1973). Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries.” Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath.Google Scholar
Benoit, Emile (1978). “Growth and Defense in Developing Countries.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 26: 271–80.10.1086/451015CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berk, Richard, Hoffman, Donnie, Maki, Judith, Rauma, David, and Wong, Herbert (1979). “Estimation Procedures for Pooled Cross-Sectional and Time Series Data.” Evaluation Quarterly 3: 385–410.10.1177/0193841X7900300304CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buse, A. (1973). “Goodness of Fit on Generalized Least Squares Estimation.” The American Statistician 27: 106–08.Google Scholar
Butterworth, Robert L. (1976). Managing Interstate Conflict, 1945–1974: Data with Synopses. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Center for International Studies.Google Scholar
Coleman, James S. (1960). “The Political Systems of the Developing Areas.” In Almond, Gabriel A. and Coleman, James S. (eds.), The Politics of the Developing Areas. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Dean, James W. and Stinson, James A. (1980). “Pooled Cross Sections and Time Series.” Paper prepared for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
Dupuy, R. Ernest and Dupuy, Trevor N. (1977). The Encyclopedia of Military History, rev. ed. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Finer, Samuel E. (1975). The Man on Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics. 2nd ed. London: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted R. (1972). Politimetrics: An Introduction to Quantitative Macropolitics. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prenlice-Hall.Google Scholar
Hannan, Michael T. and Young, Alice A. (1977). “Estimation in Panel Models: Results on Pooling Cross-Sections and Time Series.” In Heise, David R. (ed.), Sociological Methodology, 1977. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.Google Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr. (1974). “Problems of Statistical Estimation and Causal Inference in Time-Series Regression Models.” In Costner, Herbert L. (ed.), Sociological Methodology (1973–1974). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.Google Scholar
Hill, Kim Q. (1979). “Military Role vs. Military Rule: Allocations to Military Activities.” Comparative Politics 11: 371–77.10.2307/421828CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackman, Robert W. (1976). “Politicians in Uniform: Military Governments and Social Change in the Third World.” American Political Science Review 70: 1078–97.10.2307/1959375CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, J. (1972). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Kennedy, Gavin (1974). The Military in the Third World. New York: Charles Scribner's Sons.Google Scholar
Kmenta, Jan (1971). Elements of Econometrics. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Lieuwen, Edwin (1961). Arms and Politics in Latin America, rev. ed. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Lieuwen, Edwin (1964). Generals vs. Presidents: Neo-Militarism in Latin America. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Loftus, J. E. (1968). Latin American Defense Expenditures, 1936–1965. Rand Corporation Memo, RM-5310-PR/ISA.Google Scholar
Luttwak, Edward (1969). Coup d'Etat: A Practical Handbook. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.Google Scholar
Malinvaud, E. (1970). Statistical Methods of Economics. London: North-Holland.Google Scholar
McKinlay, R. D. and Cohan, A. S. (1975). “A Comparative Analysis of the Political and Economic Performance of Military and Civilian Regimes: A Cross-National Aggregate Study.” Comparative Politics 8: 1–30.10.2307/421451CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKinlay, R. D. and Cohan, A. S. (1976). “Performance and Instability in Military and Non-military Regime Systems.” American Political Science Review 70: 850–64.10.2307/1959871CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrison, Donald G., Mitchell, Robert C., Paden, John N., and Stevenson, Hugh M. (1972). Black Africa: A Comparative Handbook. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Mundlak, Yari (1978). “On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross-Section Data.” Econometrica 46: 69–85.10.2307/1913646CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Needier, Martin C. (1975). “Military Motivations in the Seizure of Power.” Latin American Research Review 10 (Winter): 63–79.Google Scholar
Nordlinger, Eric A. (1970). “Soldiers in Mufti: The Impact of Military Rule Upon Economic and Social Change in the Non-Western States.” American Political Science Review 64: 1131–48.10.2307/1958362CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nordlinger, Eric A. (1977). Soldiers in Politics: Military Coups and Governments. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Perlmutter, Amos (1977). The Military and Politics in Modern Times. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert O. (1967). “Toward Explaining Military Intervention in Latin-American Politics.” World Politics 20: 83–110.10.2307/2009729CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schmitter, Philippe C. (1971). “Military Intervention, Political Competitiveness and Public Policy in Latin America: 1950–1967.” In Janowitz, Morris and Doorn, Jacques Van (eds.), On Military Intervention. Rotterdam: Rotterdam University Press.Google Scholar
Schmitter, Philippe C. (1973). “Foreign Military Assistance, National Military Spending and Military Rule in Latin America.” In Schmitter, Philippe C. (ed.), Military Rule in Latin America: Function, Consequences and Perspectives. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Schmitter, Philippe C. (1976). “Military Intervention, Political Competitiveness, and Public Policy in Latin America: 1950–1967.” In Lowenthal, Abraham F. (ed.), Armies and Politics in Latin America. New York: Holmes and Meier.Google Scholar
Sivard, Ruth L. (1979). World Military and Social Indicators, 1979. Leesburg, Va.: World Priorities.Google Scholar
Tannahill, Neal R. (1975). “Military Intervention in Search of a Dependent Variable.” Journal of Political and Military Sociology. 3: 219–28.Google Scholar
Tannahill, Neal R. (1976). “The Performance of Military Governments in South America.” Journal of Political and Military Sociology. 4: 233–44.Google Scholar
Thompson, William R. (1973). The Grievances of Military Coup-Makers. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Thompson, William R. (1976). “Organizational Cohesion and Military Coup Outcomes.” Comparative Political Studies 9: 255–76.10.1177/001041407600900302CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thompson, William R. (1980). “Corporate Coup-Maker Grievances and Types of Regime Targets.” Comparative Political Studies 12: 485–96.10.1177/001041408001200407CrossRefGoogle Scholar
U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (1978). World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, 1967–1976. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.Google Scholar
Von der Mehden, Fred R. (1969). Politics of the Developing Nations. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Weaver, Jerry L. (1973). “Assessing the Impact of Military Rule: Alternative Approaches.” In Schmitter, Philippe C. (ed.), Military Rule in Latin America: Function, Consequences and Perspectives. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Whynes, David K. (1979). The Economics of Third World Military Expenditure. Austin: University of Texas Press.10.1007/978-1-349-04038-4CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zimmerman, Ekkart (1979). “Toward a Causal Model of Military Coups d'Etat.” Armed Forces and Society. 5: 387–413.10.1177/0095327X7900500304CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.