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The Predictability of Coups d'état: A Model with African Data*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Robert W. Jackman
Robert W. Jackman*
Affiliation:
Michigan State University
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Abstract

This paper specifies and estimates a model of the structural determinants of coups d'état for the new states of black Africa in the years from 1960 through 1975. Results indicate that (1) both social mobilization and the presence of a dominant ethnic group are destabilizing (these effects are additive); (2) multipartyism is destabilizing while electoral turnout in the last election before independence is stabilizing; (3) multipartyism is particularly destabilizing where a dominant ethnic group exists; (4) the presence of such a group reduces (but does not eliminate) the stabilizing effect of turnout; and (5) multipartyism has no pronounced effect on elite instability where turnout is high. Taken together, these patterns account for over four-fifths of the variance in coups d'état in black Africa in the period.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 72 , Issue 4 , December 1978 , pp. 1262 - 1275
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1978

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Footnotes

*

I would like to thank Mary R. Jackman, Brian D. Silver, William A. Boyd, Michael Bratton, M. Crawford Young, and the editor and referees for their comments and criticisms. However, given that I have not followed all of the advice offered me, responsibility for what follows is mine alone. My thanks also go to William A. Boyd, Suzanne M. Purcell, and Arlene V. Sanderson for their able assistance. This research was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (SOC75–22661).

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