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MODELLING THE EFFECT OF VACCINATION ON THE MENINGOCOCCAL B EPIDEMIC IN NEW ZEALAND

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 March 2013

J. L. SIMPSON  and
M. G. ROBERTS
J. L. SIMPSON*
Affiliation:
Fonterra (Hautapu), Private Bag 854, Cambridge, New Zealand
M. G. ROBERTS*
Affiliation:
Institute of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study & Infectious Disease Research Centre, Massey University, Private Bay 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand
*
✉jo.simpson2@fonterra.com
✉m.g.roberts@massey.ac.nz
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Abstract

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A nation-wide vaccination campaign began in New Zealand in 2004 with the aim of stopping the epidemic of meningococcal B disease. Approximately 80% of those under 20 years of age when the campaign was launched were vaccinated with three doses of a tailor-made vaccine. We propose a framework for a mathematical model based on the susceptible–carrier–infectious–removed (SCIR) structure. We show how the model could be used to calculate the predicted yearly incidence of infection in the absence of vaccination, and compare this to the effect that vaccination had on the course of the epidemic. Our model shows that vaccination led to a considerable decrease in the incidence of infection compared to what would have been seen otherwise. We then use our model to explore the potential effect of alternative vaccination schemes, and show that the one that was implemented was the best of all the possibilities we consider.

Keywords

epidemicsmeningitisSIR modelimmunization

MSC classification

Secondary: 92D30: Epidemiology
Type
Research Article
Information
The ANZIAM Journal , Volume 54 , Issue 1-2 , October 2012 , pp. 74 - 88
Copyright
Copyright ©2013 Australian Mathematical Society 

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