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DIFFERENCES IN EUROPEAN MORTALITY RATES: A GEOMETRIC APPROACH ON THE AGE–PERIOD PLANE

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 July 2015

Marcus C. Christiansen ,
Evgeny Spodarev  and
Verena Unseld
Marcus C. Christiansen*
Affiliation:
Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Edinburgh, and Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
Evgeny Spodarev
Affiliation:
Institute of Stochastics, Ulm University, Germany E-Mail: evgeny.spodarev@uni-ulm.de
Verena Unseld
Affiliation:
Institute of Stochastics, Ulm University, Germany E-Mail: verena.unseld@uni-ulm.de
*
E-Mail: m.c.christiansen@hw.ac.uk
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Abstract

Age and period are the most widely used parameters for forecasting mortality rates. Empirical mortality rate differences in multiple populations often show strong geometric patterns on the two-dimensional age–period plane. The idea of this paper is to take these geometric patterns as the starting point for the development of forecasts. A parametric approach is presented and discussed which uses simple techniques from spatial statistics. The proposed model is statistically parsimonious and yields forecasts that are consistent with the historical data and coherent for multiple populations.

Keywords

Mortality forecastingmodeling multiple populationsBox–Cox transformgeostatisticsGaussian random fieldsconditional simulationKriging
Type
Research Article
Information
ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA , Volume 45 , Issue 3 , September 2015 , pp. 477 - 502
Copyright
Copyright © Astin Bulletin 2015 

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