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INTERNATIONAL CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY RATES: NEW INSIGHTS FROM A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 December 2015

Séverine Arnold-Gaille  and
Michael Sherris
Séverine Arnold-Gaille*
Affiliation:
Department of Actuarial Science, Faculty of Business and Economics (HEC Lausanne), University of Lausanne, Switzerland
Michael Sherris
Affiliation:
UNSW Business School, University of New South Wales, Australia E-Mail: M.Sherris@unsw.edu.au
*
E-Mail: Severine.Arnold@unil.ch
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Abstract

This paper applies cointegration techniques, developed in econometrics to model long-run relationships, to cause-of-death data. We analyze the five main causes of death across five major countries, including USA, Japan, France, England & Wales and Australia. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the long-run equilibrium relationships between the five main causes of death, providing new insights into similarities and differences in trends. The results identify for the first time similarities between countries and genders that are consistent with past studies on the aging processes by biologists and demographers. The insights from biological theory on aging are found to be reflected in the cointegrating relations in all of the countries included in the study.

Keywords

Causes of deathmortality trendscointegrationdependencecommon trendsbiological aging
Type
Research Article
Information
ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA , Volume 46 , Issue 1 , January 2016 , pp. 9 - 38
Copyright
Copyright © Astin Bulletin 2015 

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