Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-j824f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T04:51:33.389Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The base rate controversy: Is the glass half-full or half-empty?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Gideon Keren  and
Lambert J. Thijs
Gideon Keren
Affiliation:
Eindhoven University of Technology, Faculty of Philosophy and Social Sciences, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands, g.b.keren@tm.tue.nl
Lambert J. Thijs
Affiliation:
Eindhoven University of Technology, Faculty of Philosophy and Social Sciences, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands, g.b.keren@tm.tue.nl
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Setting the two hypotheses of complete neglect and full use of base rates against each other is inappropriate. The proper question concerns the degree to which base rates are used (or neglected), and under what conditions. We outline alternative approaches and recommend regression analysis. Koehler's conclusion that we have been oversold on the base rate fallacy seems to be premature.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996 , pp. 26
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adair, J. G. (1984) The Hawthorne effect: A reconsideration of the methodological artifact, Journal of Applied Psychology 69:334–45. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adler, J. E. (1994) More on race and crime. Journal of Social Philosophy 25:105–14. [JEA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aitchison, J. & Dunsmore, I. R. (1975) Statistical prediction analysis. Cambridge University Press. [GDK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ajzen, I. (1977) Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35:303–13. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allport, G. W. & Postman, L. J. (1945). The basic psychology of rumor. Transactions of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2(8):61–81. [KJV]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
American Psychiatric Association (1987) Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, 3d ed., rev. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Anderson, N. H. (1986) A cognitive theory of judgment and decision. In: New directions in research on judgment and decision making, ed. Brehmer, B., Jungermann, H., Lourens, P. & Sevon, G.. North-Holland. [NHA]Google Scholar
Anderson, N. H. (in press) A functional theory of cognition. Erlbaum. [NHA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, N. H., ed. (1991) Contributions to information integration theory: 1. Cognition. Erlbaum. [NHA]Google Scholar
Ashton, R. H. (1986) Combining the judgments of experts: How many and which ones? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 38:405–14. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ayton, P. (1993) Base rate neglect: An insider view of judgment? Psycoloquy 4(63) base-rate.5.ayton. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Bacchus, F., Kyburg, H. E. & Thalos, M. (1990) Against conditionalization. Synthese 85:475–506. [HEK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balla, J. I., Iansek, R. & Elstein, A. (1985) Bayesian diagnosis in presence of preexisting disease. The Lancet 1:326–29. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1980) The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments. Acta Psychologica 44:211–33. [aJJK, SEE, CCRM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1983) The base rate fallacy controversy. In: Decision making under uncertainty, ed. Scholz, R. W.. Elsevier. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1990) Back to base rates. In: Insights in decision making: A tribute to Hillel J. Einhom, ed. Hogarth, R. M.. University of Chicago Press. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1981) When do base rates affect predictions? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 41:671–80. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bar-tal, D., Cravmann, C. G., Kruglanski, A. W. & Stroebe, W. (1989) Stereotyping and prejudice: Changing conceptions. Springer-Verlag. [DCF]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bargh, J. (1994) The four horsemen of automaticity: Awareness, intention, efficiency, and control in social cognition. In: Handbook of social cognition, vol. 1, ed. Wyer, R. S. Jr, & Srull, T. K.. Hillsdale, NJ: LEA. [PF–B]Google Scholar
Barlow, J. H., Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J., eds. (1992) Tlic adapted mind. Oxford University Press. [FRP]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baumeister, R. F. & Newman, L. S. (1994) Self-regulation of cognitive inference and decision processes. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 20:3–19. [PF–B]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beach, L. R. (1993) Broadening the definition of decision making: The role of prechoice screening of options. Psychological Science 4:215–20. [KMG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beach, L. R. & Mitchell, T. R. (1987) Image theory: Principles, goals, and plans in decision making. Acta Psychologica 66:201–20. [KMG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, P., Solomon, I. & Tomassini, L. (1985) Subjective prior probability distributions and audit risk. Jotimal of Accounting Research 23:37–56. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergus, G. R., Chapman, G. B., Gjerde, C. & Elstein, A. S. (1995) Clinical reasoning about new symptoms despite preexisting disease: Sources of error and order effects. Family Medicine 27:314–20. [RMH, rJJK]Google ScholarPubMed
Beyth-Marom, R. & Arkes, H. R. (1983) Being accurate but not necessarily Bayesian: Comments on Christensen-Szalanski and Beach. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 31:255–57. [SEE]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beyth-Marom, R. & Fischoff, B. (1983) Diagnosticity and pseudodiagnosticity. Journal of Personality and Sodal Psychology 45:1185–95. [aJJK, YK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Biernat, M. (1993) Gender and height: Developmental patterns in knowledge and use of an accurate stereotype. Sex Roles 29:691–713. [aJJK, JK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birnbaum, M. H. (1983) Base rates in Bayesian inference: Signal detection analysis of the cab problem. American Journal of Psychology 96:85–93. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bimbaum, M. H. & Mellers, B. A. (1983) Bayesian inference: Combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 45:792–803. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Borgida, E. & Brekke, N. (1981) The base rate fallacy in attribution and prediction. In: New directions in attribution research, vol. 3, ed. Harvey, J. H., Ickes, W. J. & Kidd, R. F.. Erlbaum. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Borgida, E. & Nisbett, R. (1977) The differential impact of abstract versus concrete information on decisions, journal of Applied Social Psychology 7:258–71. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braine, M. D. S., Connell, J., Freitag, J. & O'Brien, D. P. (1990) Is the base rate fallacy an instance of asserting the consequent? In: Lines of thinking, vol. 1, ed. Gilhooly, K. L., Leane, M. T. C., Logie, R. H. & Erdos, G.. Wiley. [aJJK, YK]Google Scholar
Brekke, N. & Borgida, E. (1988) Expert psychological testimony in rape trials: A social cognitive analysis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 55:372–86. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brilmayer, L. & Komhauser, L. (1978) Review: Quantitative methods and legal decisions. University of Chicago Law Review 46:116–53. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brunswik, E. (1956) Perception and the representative design of psychological experiments, 2d ed.University of California Press. [KJV]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butt, J. (1988) Frequency judgments in an auditing-related task. Jotimal of Accounting Research 26:315–30. [aJJK, LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calder, B. J., Phillips, L. W. & Tybout, A. M. (1981) Designing research for application. Journal of Consumer Research 8:197–207. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caldwell, R. A., Bogat, G. A. & Davidson, W. S. (1988) The assessment of child abuse potential and the prevention of child abuse and neglect: A policy analysis. American Journal of Community Psychology 16:609–24. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cannon, C. K. & Quinsey, V. L. (1995) The likelihood of violent behaviour: Predictions, postdictions, and hindsight bias. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science 27:92–106. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Camap, R. (1950) Logical foundations of probability. Routledge/Kegan Paul. [LJC]Google Scholar
Casscells, W., Schoenberger, A. & Graboys, T. B. (1978) Interpretations by physicians of clinical laboratory results. New England journal of Medicine 299:99–1001. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chaiken, S., Liberman, A. & Eagly, A. (1989) Heuristic and systematic information processing within and beyond the persuasion context. In: Unintended tlwught, ed. Uleman, J. & Bargh, J.. Guilford. [PF-B]Google Scholar
Chapman, L. G. & Chapman, J. P. (1959) Atmosphere effect re-exainined. journal of Experimental Psychology 58:220–26. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cheney, D. L. & Seyfarth, R. M. (1990) How monkeys see the world. The University of Chicago Press. [FRP]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Beach, L. R. (1982) Experience and the baserate fallacy. Organization Behavior and Human Performance 29:270–78. [aJJK, SEE]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Beach, L. R. (1983) Believing is not the same as testing: A reply to Beyth-Marom and Arkes. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 31:258–61. [SEE]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Beach, L. R. (1984) The citation bias: Fad and fashion in the judgment and decision literature. American Psychologist 39:75–78. [aJJK, NHA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Bushyhead, J. B. (1981) Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting, journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 7:928–35. [arJJK, BAS]Google Scholar
Cobos, P., Lopez, F., Rondo, M., Femandez-Berrocal, P. & Almaraz, J. (1993) Connectionism and probability judgment: Suggestions on biases. In: Proceeding of the Fifteenth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, ed. Poison, M. C.. Hillsdale, New Jersey: LEA. [PF-B]Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1977) The probable and the provable. Clarendon. [CDK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1979) On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy? Cognition 7:385–407. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1981a) Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4:317–31. [aJJK, LJC, TC]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1981b) Are there any a priori constraints on the study of rationality? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4:359–67. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1981c) Subjective probability and the paradox of the gatecrasher. Arizona State Law Journal 1981:627–33. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1986a) Twelve questions about Keynes's concept of weight. The British journal for the Philosophy of Science 37:263–78. [LJC]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1986b) The role of evidential weight in criminal proof. Boston University Law Review 66:635–49. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Connell, J. (1985) Conditional reasoning processes and limited competence underlie the base rate fallacy in Bayesian probability judgment. Unpublished dissertation, New York University, NY. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Cosmides, L. (1989) The logic of social exchange: Has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Cognition 31:187–276. [FRP]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J. (1989) Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture: 2. Case study: A computational theory of social exchange. Ethology and Sociobiology 10:51–97. [FRP]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J. (in press) Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition. [arJJK, PF-B]Google Scholar
Cronbach, L. J. (1975) Beyond the two disciplines of scientific psychology. American Psychologist 30:116–27. [CK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Darley, J. M. & Latane, B. (1968) Bystander intervention in emergencies: Diffusion of responsibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 8:377–83. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Davidson, D. & Hirtle, S. C. (1990) Effects of nondiscrepant and discrepant information on the use of base rates. American Journal of Psychology 103:343–57. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, J. & Solomon, I. (1989) Experience, expertise, and expert-performance research in public accounting. Journal of Accounting Literature 8:150–64. [LK]Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1983) Is irrationality systematic? Comment on Cohen. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 3:491–92. [RMD]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1988) Rational choice in an uncertain world. Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich. [YK]Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1992a) Comment: Quandary: Correlation coefficients and contexts. In: Life crises and experiences of loss in adulthood, ed. Montada, L., Filipp, S. H. & Lerner, M. J.. Erlbaum. [RMD]Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1992b) The importance of alternative hypotheses—and hypothetical counterfactuals in general—in social science. The General Psychologist 28(1):2–7. [RMD]Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (in press) Experimental demand, clear incentives, both, or neither? [RMD]Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D. & Meehl, P. E. (1989) Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science 243:1668–73. [aJJK, VLQ]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dawes, R. M., Mirels, H. L., Cold, E. & Donahue, E. (1993) Equating inverse probabilities in implicit personality judgments. Psychological Science 4:396–400. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Keyser, L. & Van Herle, A. (1985) Hypothyroidism. In: Current diagnosis, 7th ed., ed. Conn, R. B., Saunders, W. B.. [aJJK]Google Scholar
De Croot, A. D. (1946/1965) Thought and choice in chess. The Hague: Mouton. [KJV]Google Scholar
“Debate” (1991) Debate on statistics and evidentiary theory. Tulane Law Review 65 & 66. [aJJK]Google Scholar
“Decision” (1991) Decision and inference in litigation. Cardozo Law Review 13:253–1079. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Dubois, D. & Prade, H. (1988) Possibility theory. Plenum. [LRG]Google Scholar
Duncan, D. & Snow, W. C. (1987) Base rates in neuropsychology. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice 18:368–70. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duthie, B. & Vincent, K. R. (1986) Diagnostic hit rates of high point codes for the diagnostic inventory of personality and symptoms using random assignment, base rates, and probability scales. Journal of Clinical Psychology 42:612–14. [aJJK]3.0.CO;2-B>CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ebbesen, E. B. & Konecni, V. J. (1980) On the external validity of decisionmaking research: What do we know about decision in the real world? In: Cognitive processes in choice and decision behavior, ed. Wallsten, T. S.. Erlbaum. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Eddy, D. M. (1982) Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities. In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Ktihneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Edgell, S. E. & Hennessey, J. E. (1980) Irrelevant information and utilization of event base rates in nonmetric multiple-cue probability learning. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 26:1–6. [SEE]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edgell, S. E., Nahinsky, I. D., Dodd, C. H. & Barnes, J. M. (submitted) Does experience mitigate base rate neglect? [SEE]Google Scholar
Edwards, W. (1968) Conservatism in human information processing. In: Formal representation of human judgment, ed. Kleinmuntz, B.. Wiley. [NPM]Google Scholar
Edwards, W. (1990) Unfinished tasks: A research agenda for behavioral decision theory. In: Insights in decision making, ed. Hogarth, R. M.. University of Chicago Press. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Einhom, H. (1980) Overconfidence in judgment. In: New directions for methodology of social and behavioral science: Fallible judgment in behavioral research, ed. Shweder, R. & Fiske, D.. Jossey-Bass. [LK]Google Scholar
Einhom, H. J. & Hogarth, R. M. (1981) Behavioral decision theory: Processes of judgment and choice. Annual Review of Psychology 32:53–88. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Estes, W. K., Campbell, J. A., Hatsopoulos, N. & Hurwitz, J. B. (1989) base-rate effects in category learning: A comparison of parallel network and memory storage-retrieval models. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 15:556–71. [BAS]Google ScholarPubMed
Evans, J. St. B. T. & Bradshaw, H. (1986) Estimating sample-size requirements in research design: A study of intuitive statistical judgment. Current Psychological Research and Reviews 5:10–19. [arJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evett, I. W. (1986) A Bayesian approach to the problem of interpreting glass evidence in forensic science casework. Journal of the Forensic Science Society 26:3–18. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fagley, N. S. (1988) Judgmental heuristics: Implications for the decision making of school psychologists. School Psychology Review 17:311–21. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernandez-Berrocal, P., Lopez, F., Segura, S. & Almaraz, J. (1993) Es la cognicion social bayesiana? (Is social cognition Bayesian?) In: Epistemologia y procesos psicosociales basicos, ed. Fernandez, I. & Martinez, M.. Madrid: Eudema. [PF-B]Google Scholar
Fienberg, S. E. (1986) Misunderstanding beyond a reasonable doubt. Boston University Law Review 66:651–56. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Fienberg, S. E. & Schervish, M. J. (1986) The relevance of Bayesian inference for the presentation of evidence and for legal decision making. Boston University Law Review 66:771–98. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Finkelstein, M. O. (1978) Quantitative methods in law. Free Press. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Finkelstein, M. & Fairly, W. (1970) A Baysesian approach to identification evidence. Harvard Law Review 83:489–517. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fischoff, B. & Bar-Hillel, M. (1984) Diagnosticity and the base-rate effect. Memory and Cognition 12:402–10. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fischoff, B. & Beyth-Marom, R. (1983) Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective. Psychological Review 90:239–60. [arJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
FischofT, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1979) Subjective sensitivity analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 23:339–59. [aJJK, NHA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fong, G. T., Krantz, D. H. & Nisbett, R. E. (1986) The effects of statistical training on thinking about everyday problems. Cognitive Psychology 18:253–92. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frisch, D. & Clemen, R. T. (1994) Beyond expected utility: Rethinking behavioral decision research. Psychological Bulletin 116:46–54. [KMC]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fuller, M. & McLeod, P. J. (1995) Judgements of control over a contingently responsive animation by students with and without learning disabilities. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science 27(2):171–86. [PJM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Funder, D. C. (1987) Errors and mistakes: Evaluating the accuracy of social judgment1. Psychological Bulletin 101:75–90. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Funder, D. C. (1993) Judgments as data from personality and developmental psychology: Error versus accuracy. In: Studying lives through time: Approaches to personality and development, ed. Funder, D. C., Parke, R., Tomlinson-Keasey, C. & Widaman, K.. American Psychological Association. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Funder, D. C. (1994) Accuracy theory. Unpublished manuscript, University of California, Riverside, CA. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Funder, D. C. (in press a) On the accuracy of personality judgment: A realistic approach. Psychological Review. [DCF]Google Scholar
Funder, D. C. (in press b) Stereotypes, base-rates, and the fundamental attribution mistake: Towards a content-based approach to judgmental accuracy. In: Are stereotypes inaccurate? A neglected issue in intergroup relations, ed. Lee, Y.-T., Jussim, L. & McCauley, C.. American Psychological Association. [DCF]Google Scholar
Gabrenya, W. K. & Arkin, R. M. (1979) Motivation, heuristics, and the psychology of prediction. Motivation and Emotion 3:1–17. [aJJK, FRP]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galotti, K. M. (1989) Approaches to studying formal and everyday reasoning. Psychological Bulletin 105:331–51. [KMG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galotti, K. M. (in press) A longitudinal study of real-life decision making: Choosing a college. Applied Cognitive Psychology. [KMG]Google Scholar
Gavanski, I. & Hui, C. (1992). Natural sample spaces and uncertain belief. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 63:766–80. [aJJK, YK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gibson, J. J. (1967/1982) Autobiography. In: Reasons for realism: Selected essays of James J. Gibson, ed. Reed, E. & Jones, R.. Erlbaum. [KJV]Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (1991) How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond “heuristic and biases.” European Review of Social Psychology 2:83–115. [aJJK, PF-B]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (1994) Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice versa). In: Subjective probability, ed. Wright, G. & Ayton, P.. Wiley. [arJJK, PF-B]Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., Hell, W., & Blank, H. (1988) Presentation and content: the use of base rates us a continuous variable. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 14:513–25. [aJJK, GK]Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. & Hoffrage, U. (in press a) How to make the mind reason the Bayesian way. Psychological Review. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. & Hoffrage, U. (in press b) How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instructions: Frequency formats. Psychological Review. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Cigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U. & Kleinbolting, H. (1991) Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review 98:506–28. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gillespie, R. (1991) Manufacturing knowledge: A history of the Hawthorne experiments. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Gilovich, T. (1990) How we know what isn't so? Free Press. [FRP]Google Scholar
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R. & Tversky, A. (1985) The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology 17:295–313. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ginossar, Z. & Trope, Y. (1980) The effects of base rates and individuating information on judgments about another person. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 16:228–42. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ginossar, Z. & Trope, Y. (1987) Problem solving in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 52:464–73. [arJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gluck, M. A. & Bower, C. (1988) From conditioning to category learning: An adaptive network model. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 117:227–47. [PF-B, BAS]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Goodie, A. S. & Fantino, E. (1995) An experientially derived base-rate error in humans. Psychological Science 6:101–6. [BAS]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gottfredson, D. M., Wilkins, L. T. & Hoffman, P. B. (1978) Guidelines for parole and sentencing: A policy control method. Toronto: Lexington Books. [VLQ]Google Scholar
Graham, J. D. (1989) Communicating about chemical hazards. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 8:307–13. [LRG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grether, D. M. (1980) Bayes rule as a descriptive model: The representativeness heuristic. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 95:537–57. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Griffin, D. & Tversky, A. (1992) The weighing of evidence and the determination of confidence. Cognitive Psychology 24:411–35. [JEA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, D. L. (1981) Cognitive processes in stereotyping and intergroup behavior. Erlbaum. [DCF]Google Scholar
Hamilton, M. M. (1984) An examination of processing factors affecting the availability of consumer testimonial information in memory. Unpublished dissertation, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD. [aJJK, JK]Google Scholar
Hamm, R. M. (1987) Diagnostic inference: People's use of information in incomplete Bayesian word problems [Publication No. 87–11]. Institute of Cognitive Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO. [RMH]Google Scholar
Hamm, R. M. (1993) Explanations for common responses to the blue/green cab probabilistic inference word problem Psychological Reports 72:219–42. [arJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamm, R. M. (1994) Underweighting of base-rate information reflects important difficulties people have with probabilistic inference. Psycoloquy 5(3) baserate. 7.hamm. [RMH, rJJK]Google Scholar
Hamm, R. M. & Zubialde, J. (1995) Physicians' expert cognition and the problem of cognitive biases. Primary Care 22:181–212. [RMH]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hanson, R. D. & Donoghue, J. M. (1977) the power of consensus: Information derived from one's own and others' behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35:294–302. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E. & Quinsey, V. L. (1993) Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior 20:315–35. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hasher, L. & Zacks, R. T. (1984) Automatic processing of fundamental information: The case of frequency of occurrence. American Psychologist 39:1372–88. [BAS]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hastie, R. (1983) Social inference. Annual Review of Psychology 34:511–42. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hempel, C. G. (1965) Asfiects of scientific explanation. Free Press. [LJC]Google Scholar
Hilton, J. L. & Fein, S. (1989) The role of diagnosticity in stereotype-based judgments. journal of Personality and Social Psychology 57:201–11. [aJJK, JK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hinsz, V. B., Tindale, R. S., Nagao, D. H., Davis, J. H. & Robertson, B. A. (1988) The influence of the accuracy of individuating information on the use of base rate information in probability judgment. Journal of Experimentnl Social Psychology 24:127–45. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hinsz, V. G. & Davidson, D. J. (1993) Contextual influences of within-suhjects designs on base rate type problems. Paper presented at the meeting of the Judgment and Decision Making Society (11, 1993), Washington, DC. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Hintzman, D. L., Nozawa, C. & Irmscher, M. (1982) Frequency as a nonpropositional attribute of memory. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 21:127–41. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hogarth, R. M. (1986) Beyond discrete biases. In: Judgment and decision making, ed. Arkes, H. R. & Hammond, K. R.. Cambridge University Press. [JEA]Google Scholar
Hogarth, R. M. (1987) Judgement and choice, 2d ed.Wiley. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Hogarth, R. M. & Einhom, H. J. (1992) Order effect in belief updating: The belief-adjustment model. Cognitive Psychology 24:1–55. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holland, J. H., Holyoak, K. J., Nisbett, R. E. & Thagard, P. R. (1986) Induction: Processes of inference, learning, and discovery. MIT Press. [YK]Google Scholar
Holyoak, K. J. & Spellman, B. A. (1993) Thinking. Annual Review of Psychology 44:265–315. [aJJK, PF-B, BAS]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iwasa, Y., Higashi, M. & Yamamura, M. (1981) Prey distribution as a factor determining the choice of optimal foraging strategy. American Naturalist 117:710–23. [LRG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jepson, C., Krantz, D. H. & Nisbett, R. E. (1983) Inductive reasoning: Competence or skill? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 3:494–501. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, V. & Kaplan, S. (1991) Experimental evidence on the effects of accountability on auditor judgments. Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory 10(Suppl.):96–107. [LK]Google Scholar
Johnson, W. (1983) “Representativeness” in judgmental predictions of corporate bankruptcy. The Accounting Review 58:78–97. [LK]Google Scholar
Jonakait, R. N. (1983) When blood is their argument: Probabilities in criminal cases, genetic markers, and, once again, Bayes Theorem. University of Illinois Law Review 1983:369–421. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Jones, S. K., Jones, K. T. & Frisch, D. (1995) Biases of probability assessment: A comparison of frequency and single case judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 61:109–22. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, S. R. C. (1992) Was there a Hawthorne effect? American Journal of Sociology 98:451–68. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Joyce, E. & Biddle, G. (1981) Are auditors' judgments sufficiently regressive? Journal of Accounting Research 19:323–49. [aJJK, LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. (1991) Judgment and decision making: A personal view. Psychological Science 2:142–45. [BJG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Lovallo, D. (1993) Bold forecasting and timid decisions: A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Management Science 39:17–31. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1972) Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psyclwlogy 3: 430–54. [arJJK, SEE, DCF]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1973) On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review 80:237–51. [aJJK, DCF, GK, GDK, LK, YK, PJM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (in press) On the reality of cognitive illusion: A reply to Gigerenzer's critique. Psychological Review. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Kassin, S. M. (1979) Base rates and prediction: The role of sample size. Personality and Social Psyclwlogy Bulletin 5:210–13. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaye, D. H. (1979) The paradox of die gatecrasher and other stories. Arizona State University Law Journal 101:101–9. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Kaye, D. H. (1981) Paradoxes, gedanken experiments and the burden of proof: A response to Dr. Cohen's replay. Arizona State Law Journal 1981:635–45. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Kaye, D. H. (1986) Do we need a calculus of weight to understand proof beyond a reasonable doubt? Boston University Law Review 66:657–72. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Kaye, D. H. (1989) The probability of an ultimate issue: The strange case of paternity testing. Iowa Law Review 75:75–109. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Kaye, D. H. & Koehler, J. J. (1991) Can jurors understand probabilistic evidence? Joumal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 154:75–81 [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keynes, J. M. (1921) A treatise on probability. Macmillan. [LJC]Google Scholar
Kida, T. (1984) The effect of causality and specificity on data use. Journal of Accounting Research 22:145–52. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klar, Y. (1990) Linking structures and sensitivity to judgment-relevant information in statistical and logical reasoning tasks. Jou mal of Personality and Social Psychology 59:841–58. [YK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klar, Y. & Liberman, N. (unpublished) Exclusivity, typicality, and hypothesis testing: Do people judge by representativeness? Unpublished manuscript, Tel-Aviv University. [YK]Google Scholar
Klar, Y. & Pessach, R. (unpublished) Necessity, sufficiency and dispositional inference. Unpublished manuscript, Tel-Aviv University. [YK]Google Scholar
Klein, G. A., Orasanu, J., Calderwood, R. & Zsambok, C. E. (1993). Decision making in action: Models and methods. Norwood, NJ: Ablex. [KJV]Google Scholar
Kleiter, G. D. (1992) Bayesian diagnosis in expert systems. Artificial Intelligence 54:1–32. [GDK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kleiter, G. D. (1994a) Natural sampling: Rationality without base rates. In: Contributions to mathematical psychology, psychometrics and methodology, ed. Fischer, C. & Laming, D.. Springer-Verlag. [GDK]Google Scholar
Kleiter, G. D. (1994b) Propagating imprecise probabilities in Bayesian networks. In: Proceedings of the Third Workshop) on Uncertainty Processing in Expert Systems, ed. Kramosil, I., Lauritzen, S., Naeve, P., Scozzafava, R., & Smets, P.. Trest, Czech Republic. [GDK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1991) The probity-policy distinction in the statistical evidence debate. Tulanc Law Review 66:141–50. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1992) Probabilities in the courtroom: An evaluation of the objections and policies. Handbook of psychology and law, ed. Kagehiro, D. K. & Laufer, W. S.. Springer-Verlag. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1993a) The normative status of base rates at trial. Individual and group decision making, ed. Castellan, N. J.. Erlbaum. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1993b) Error and exaggeration in the presentation of DNA evidence. Jurimetrics journal 34:21–39. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1993c) DNA matches and statistics: Important questions, surprising answers. Judicature 76:222–29. [aJJK, CRC]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1993d) The influence of prior beliefs on scientific judgments of evidence quality. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 56:28–55. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koehler, J. J., Chia, A. & Lindsey, S. (1995) The random match probability in DNA evidence: Irrelevant and prejudicial? Jurimetrics Journal 35:201–19. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J., Gibbs, B. J. & Hogarth, R. M. (1994) Shattering the illusion of control: Multi-shot versus single-shot gambles. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 7:183–91. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koehler, J. J. & Shaviro, D. N. (1990) Veridical verdicts: Increasing verdict accuracy through the use of overtly probabilistic evidence and methods. Cornell Law Review 75:247–79. [aJJK, CRC]Google Scholar
Koonce, L. L. (1993) Base rate usage in accounting. Psycoloquy 4(51) baserate.3.koonce. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Krante, D. H. (1981) Improvements in human reasoning and an error in Cohen's, L. J.. Behavior and Brain Sciences 4:340–41. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krueger, J. & Rothbart, M. (1988) Use of categorical and individuating information in making inferences about personality. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 55:187–95. [aJJK, JK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kruschke, J. K. (1994) The role of base rates in category learning (Research Report No. 115). Indiana University. [PF-B]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuhn, T. (1962/1970) The structure of scientific revolutions, 2d ed.University of Chicago Press. [aJJK, BJC, JK]Google Scholar
Kyburg, H. E. Jr, (1983) Rational belief. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6(2):231–75. [HEK, rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Langer, E. J. (1975) The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32:311–28. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lanning, K. (1987) Some reasons for distinguishing between ‘non-normative response’ and ‘irrational decision.’ The Journal of Psychology 12:109–17. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lehman, D. R., Lempert, R. O. & Nisbett, R. E. (1988) The effects of graduate training on reasoning: formal discipline and thinking about every-day life events. American Psychologist 43:431–42. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leon, M. & Anderson, N. H. (1974) A ratio rule from integration theory applied to inference judgments. Journal of Experimental Psychology 102:27–36. [NHA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, I. (1981) Should Bayesians sometimes neglect base rates? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4:342–43. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Labby, R. (1985) Availability and the generation of hypotheses in analytical review. Journal of Accounting Research 23:648–67. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Libby, R. & Frederick, D. (1990) Experience and the ability to explain audit findings. Journal of Accounting Research 28:348–67. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindeman, S. T., Van Den Brink, W. P. & Hoogstraten, J. (1988) Effect of feedback on base-rate utilization. Perceptual and Motor Skilk 67:343–50. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LindJey, D. V. (1982) Scoring rules and the inevitability of probability. International Statistical Review 50:1–26. [LRG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lippman, W. (1922) Public opinion. Harcourt Brace. [DCF]Google Scholar
Locksley, A., Borgida, E., Brekke, N. & Hepburn, C. (1980) Sex stereotypes and social judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39:821–31. [aJJK, JK, CM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Locksley, A., Hepburn, C. & Ortiz, V. (1982) Social stereotypes and judgments of individuals: An instance of the base-rate fallacy. Journal of Experimental ocial Psychology 18:23–42. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Lopes, L. L. (1983) Normative theories of rationality: Occam's razor, Procrustes'bed? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6:255–56. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lopes, L. L. (1987) Procedural debiasing. Ada Psychologica 64:167–85. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lopes, L. L. (1991) The rhetoric of irrationality. Theory and Psychology 1:65.82. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lynch, J. C. & Ofir, C. (1989) Effects of cue consistency and value on base-rate utilization. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 56:170–81. [aJJK, NPM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyon, D. & Slovic, P. (1976) Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation. Ada Psychologica 40:287–98. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Macchi, L. (1994) On the communication and comprehension of probabilistic information: Commentary on Koehler on base-rate. Psycoloquy 5(11) baserate. 11.macchi. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Macchi, L. (1995) Pragmatic aspects of the base-rate fallacy. Quarterly Journal of xperimental Psychology 48A(1):188–207. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Manis, M., Dovalina, I., Avis, N. E. & Cardoze, S. (1980) Base rates can affect individual predictions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 38:231–48. [aJJK, SEE, BAS]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manis, M. (1981) Reply to Bar-Hillel and Fischoff1. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 41:681–83. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Margolis, H. (1987) Patterns, thinking, and cognition: A theory of judgment. University of Chicago Press. [aJJK, HM]Google Scholar
Margolis, H. (1996) Dealing with risk: Why the public and the exjierts disagree. University of Chicago Press. [HM]Google Scholar
Maynard Smith, J. (1982) Evolution and the theory of games. Cambridge University Press. [LRG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayo, E. (1933) The human problems of an industrial civilization1. Macmillan. [KJV]Google Scholar
McCauley, C. (1994) Stereotypes as base rate predictions: Commentary on Koehler on base-rate. Psycoloquy 5(5) base-rate.8.mccauley. [CM]Google Scholar
McCauley, C., Stitt, C. L. & Segal, M. (1980). Stereotyping: From prejudice to prediction. Psychological Bulletin 87:195–208. [CM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDaniel, L. (1990) The effects of time pressure and audit program structure on audit performance1. Journal of Accounting Research 28:267–87. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGuire, T. W. & Melone, N. P. (1992) Conservatism in integrating information: Implications for international management. In: Business behavior and information, ed. Ijiri, Y. & Nakano, I.. Carnegie Mellon University Press. [NPM]Google Scholar
McKenzie, C. R. M. (1994a) The accuracy of intuitive judgment strategies: Covariation assessment and Bayesian inference. Cognitive Psychology 26:209–39. [arJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKenzie, C. R. M. (1994b) Base rates versus prior beliefs in Bayesian inference. Psycoloquy 5(1) base-rate.6.mckenzie. [rJJK]Google Scholar
McLeod, P. J. (1994) Age differences in judgements of control, poster presented at the thirteenth biennial meetings of the International Society for the Study of Behavioural Development, Amsterdam. [PJM]Google Scholar
McLeod, P. J. & Spence, A. B. (in press) Contiception: A program to study the effects of contingency parameters on judgements of control. Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, ir Computers. [PJM]Google Scholar
Medin, D. L. & Bettger, J. G. (1991) Sensitivity to changes in base-rate information. American Journal of Psychology 104:311–32. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Medin, D. L. & Edelson, S. M. (1988) Problem structure and the use of baserate information from experience. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 117:68–85. [aJJK, SEE, BAS]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Meehl, P. E. (1954) Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and review of the literature. University of Minnesota Press. [aJJK, HEK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meehl, P. E. (1977) Why I do not attend case conferences. In: Psychodiagnosis: Seleded papers, ed. Meehl, P. E. & Norton, P. E.. [RMD]Google Scholar
Meehl, P. E. (1978) Theoretical risks and tabular asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the slow progress of soft psychology, journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 46:806–34. [GK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meehl, P. E. & Rosen, A. (1955) Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns, or cutting scores. Psychological Bulletin 52:194–216. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Melone, N. P., McGuire, T. W., Blazer, M., Erdner, D., Cerwing, T., McGuire, M. J. & Roy, M. C. (1992) Global conservatism in probability judgments: The base-rate fallacy revisited (WP 1992–34). Unpublished manuscript, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. [NPM]Google Scholar
Melone, N. P., McGuire, T. W., Roy, M. C., Erdner, D. & McGuire, M. J. (1989) Conservatism in probability judgments: A re-examination and reinterpretation of the base rate fallacy (WP 89–90–61). Unpublished manuscript, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. [NPM]Google Scholar
Mississippi Department of Human Services v. Moore (1994) 632 S. 2d 929. [CRC]Google Scholar
Moray, N. (1959) Attention in dichotic listening: Affective cues and the influence of instructions. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 11:56–60. [KJV]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Navon, D. (1978) The importance of being conservative: Some reflections on human Bayesian behavior. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 31:33–48. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nelson, T. E., Biemat, M. & Manis, M. (1990) Everyday base rates (sex stereotypes): Potent and resilient. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 59:664–75. [aJJK, JK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nesson, C. (1985) The evidence or the event? On judicial proof and the acceptability of verdicts. Harvard Law Review 98:1357–1392. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niiniluoto, I. (1981) L. J. Cohen versus Bayesianism. Behavioral and Brain ciences 4:349. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nisbett, R. E. & Borgida, E. (1975) Attribution and the psychology of prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32:932–43. [arJJK, PDW]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., Borgida, E., Crandall, R. & Reed, H. (1982) Popular induction: Information is not necessarily informative. Judgments under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., Fong, G. T., Lehman, D. R. & Cheng, P. W. (1987) Teaching reasoning. Science 238:625–31. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Nisbett, R. E., Krantz, D. H., Jepson, C. & Kunda, Z. (1983) The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning. Psychological Review 90:339–63. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nisbett, R. E. & Ross, L. (1980) Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Prentice-Hall. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E. & Schachter, S. (1966) Cognitive manipulation of pain. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 2:227–36. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ofir, C. (1988) Pseudodiagnosticity in judgment under uncertainty. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 42:343–63. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R. & Johnson, E. J. (1992) Behavioral decision research: A constructive processing perspective. Annual Review of sychology 43:87–131. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peecher, M. & Kleinmuntz, D. (1991) Experimental evidence on the effects of accountability on auditor judgments. Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory 10:108–13. [LK]Google Scholar
Peter, J. P. & Olson, J. C. (1983) Is science marketing? Journal of Marketing 47:111–25. [BJG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peterson, C. R. & Beach, L. R. (1967) Man as intuitive statistician. Psychological Bulletin 68:29–46. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, L. D. & Edwards, W. (1966). Conservatism in simple probability inference tasks. Journal of Experimental Psychology 72:346–57. [NPM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pimm, S. L. & Redfeam, A. (1988). The variability of animal populations. Nature 268:329–31. [LRG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pollard, P. & Evans, J. St. B. T. (1983) The role of ‘representativeness’ in statistical inference: A critical appraisal. In: Thinking and reasoning: Psychological approaches, ed. Evans, J. St. B. T.. Routledge/Kegan Paul. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Poole, D. A., Lindsay, D. S., Memon, A. & Bull, R. (in press) Psychotherapy and the recovery of memories of childhood sexual abuse: U. S. and British practitioners' opinions, practices, and experiences. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. [RMD]Google Scholar
Powell, J. L. & Heckman, T. G. (1990) The effects of five factors on the differential use of base-rate and individuating information. Unpublished manuscript, University of Hartford. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Prete, F. R. (1995) Designing behavior: A case study. Perspectives in Ethology 11:255–77. [FRP]Google Scholar
“Probability” (1986) Probability and the inference in the law of evidence. Boston University Law Review 66[Symposium], [aJJK]Google Scholar
Quinsey, V. L. (1981) The long term management of the mentally disordered offender. In: Mental disorder and criminal responsibility, ed. Hucker, S. J., Webster, C. D. & Ben-Aron, M.. Toronto: Butterworths. [VLQ]Google Scholar
Quinsey, V. L. & Ambtman, R. (1979) Variables affecting psychiatrists' and teachers' assessments of the dangerousness of mentally ill offenders. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 47:353–62. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Quinsey, V. L. & Cyr, M. (1986) Perceived dangerousness and treatability of offenders: The effects of internal versus external attributions of crime causality. Journal of Interpersonal Violence 1:458—71. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quinsey, V. L. & Maguire, A. (1986) Maximum security psychiatric patients: Actuarial and clinical prediction of dangerousness. Journal of Interpersonal Violence 1:143—71. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rasinski, K. A., Crocker, J. & Hastie, R. (1985) Another look at sex stereotypes and social judgments: An analysis of die social percerver's use of subjective probabilities. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 49:317–26. [aJJK, JK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reber, A. S. (1993) The cognitive unconscious: An evolutionary perspective. Consciousness and Cognition 1:93–133. [BAS]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reichenback, H. (1949) The theory of probability. University of California Press. [HEK]Google Scholar
Rice, M. E. & Harris, G. T. (in press) Violent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. [VLQ]Google Scholar
Saks, S. L. & Fishback, C. L. (1994) Sensitivity in a Bayesian judgment task: Can the inputs support the process? Unpublished manuscript, University of South Florida. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Schum, D. A. & Martin, A. W. (1982) Formal and empirical research on cascaded inference in jurisprudence. Law and Society Review 17:105–51. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwarz, N., Strack, F., Hiltin, D. & Naderer, G. (1991) Base rates, representativeness, and the logic of conversation: The contextual relevance of ‘irrelevant’ inforamtion. Social Cognition 9:67–83. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Seger, C. A. (1994) Implicit learning. Psychological Bulletin 115:163–96. [BAS]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Seligman, M. E. P. (1970) On the generality of the laws of learning. Psychological Review 17:406–18. [FRP]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shanks, D. R. (1991) Categorization by a connectionist network. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 117:227–47. [PF-B]Google Scholar
Shanks, D. R. (1992) Connectionist accounts of the inverse base-rate effect in categorization. Connection Science 4:3–18. [PF-B]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shanks, D. R. & John, M. F. (1994) Characteristics of dissociable human learning systems. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17:367–447. [BAS]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shaviro, D. (1989) Statistical-probability evidence and the appearance of justice. Harvard Law Review 103:530–54. [aJJK, CRC]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Uchtenstein, S. (1977) Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology 28:1–39. [NHA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1971) Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment. Organization Behavior and Human Performance 6:649–743. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, J. & Kida, T. (1991) Heuristics and biases: Expertise and task realism in auditing. Psychological Bulletin 3:472–89. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snow, W. G. (1985) Does the base rate exist? Journal of Clinical Neuropsychology 7:621. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Spellman, B. A. (1993) Implicit learning of base rates. Psycoloquy 4(61) baserate. 4.spellman. [aJJK, BAS]Google Scholar
Stephens, D. W. & Krebs, J. R. (1986) Foraging theory. Princeton University Press. [LRG]Google Scholar
Sullivan, R. C. & Delaney, H. R. (1982) Criminal investigations: A decision making process. Journal of Police Science and Administration 10:335–43. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Swieringa, R. & Gibbins, M., Larsson, L. & Sweeney, J. (1976) Experiments in the heuristics of human information processing. Journal of Accounting 14:159–87. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swim, J. K. (1994) Perceived versus meta-analytic effect sizes: An assessment of the accuracy of gender stereotypes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 66:21–36. [DCF]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1992a) The impact of accountability on judgment and choice: Toward a social contingency model. In: Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, ed. Zanna, M. P.. Academic Press. [PF-B, CJT]Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1992b) Is it a bad idea to study good judgment? Political Psychology 13:429–34. [CJT]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Todd, J. T. & Morris, E. K. (1992) Case histories in the great power of steady misrepresentation. American Psychologist 47:1441–53. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Tomassini, L., Solomon, I., Romney, M. & Krogstad, J. (1982) Calibration of auditors' probabilistic judgments: Some empirical evidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 30:391–406. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tribe, L. H. (1971) Trial by mathematics: Precision and ritual in the legal process. Harvard Law Review 84:1329–93. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. & Gilovich, T. (1989) The cold facts about the ‘hand hot’ in basketball. Chance: New Directions for Statistics and Computing 2:16–21. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1971) Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin 76:105–10. [aJJK, SEE]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. (1980) Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty. In: Progress in social psychology1, ed. Fishbein, M.. Erlbaum. [aJJK, PF-B]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. (1981) The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice1. Science 211:453–58. [BJG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. (1982a) Evidential impact of base rates. In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK, BAS]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. (1982b) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [LRG]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. (1983) Extensional vs. intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment1. Psychological Review 91:293–315. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ungar, S. & Shev'er, A. (1989) ‘Say it ain't so, Ben’: Attributions for a fallen hero. Social Psychology Quarterly 52:207–12. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vicente, K. J. & Brewer, W. F. (1993). Reconstructive remembering of the scientific literature. Cognition 46:101–28. [KJV]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
VonWinterfeldt, D. & Edwards, W. (1986) Decision analysis and behavioral research. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Wagenaar, W. A. (1988) The proper seat: A Bayesian discussion of the position of expert witnesses. Law and Human Behavior 12:499–510. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wason, P. C. (1983) Realism and rationality in the selection task. In: Thinking and reasoning: Psychological approaches, ed. Evans, J. St. B. T.. Routledge/Kegan Paul. [FRP]Google Scholar
Wasserman, E. A. (1990) Detecting response-outcome relations: Toward an understanding of the causal texture of the environment. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation 26:26–82. [PJM]Google Scholar
Watson, J. B. & Rayner, R. (1920) Conditioned emotional reactions1. Journal of Experimental Psychology 3:1–15. [KJV]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Watson, J. S. (1979) Perception of contingency as a determinant of social responsiveness. In: The origins of social responsiveness, ed. Thoman, E. B.. Erlbaum. [PJM]Google Scholar
Weber, E. U., Bockenholt, U., Hilton, D. J. & Wallace, B. (1993) Determinants of diagnostic hypothesis generation: Effects of information, base rates and experience. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 191:1151–64. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Webster, C. D., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Cormier, C. & Quinsey, V. L. (1994) The violence prediction scheme: Assessing dangerousness in high risk men. Centre of Criminology, University of Toronto. [VLQ]Google Scholar
Wells, C. L. (1992) Naked statistical evidence of liability: Is subjective probability enough? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 62:739–52. [PDW]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wells, G. L. & Harvey, J. H. (1977) Do people use consensus information in making causal attributions? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35:279–93. [aJJK, JK, PDW]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wells, G. L. (1978) Naive attributors' attributions and predictions: What is informative and when is an effect an effect? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 36:483–90. [aJJK, GK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wells, G. L. & Windschitl, P. D. (1994) When is the use of base-rate information not a logical imperative? Commentary on Koehler on base-rate. Psycoloquy 5(33) base-rate.14.wells-wischitl. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Wiggins, J. S. (1973) Personality and prediction: Principles of personality assessment. Addison-Wesley. [VLQ]Google Scholar
Willis, W. G. (1984) Reanalysis of an actuarial approach to neuropsychological diagnosis in consideration of base rates. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 52:567–67. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wolfe, C. R. (1995) Information seeking on Bayesian conditioned probability problems: A fuzzy-trace theory account. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 8:85–108. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wyer, R. S. Jr, & Srull, T. K. (1994) Handbook of social cognition, vol. 1. Hillsdale, New Jersey: LEA. [PF-B]Google Scholar
Zuckerman, A. A. S. (1986) Law, fact or justice? Boston University Law Beview 66:487–508. [CRC]Google Scholar
Zukier, H. & Pepitone, A. (1984) Social roles and strategies in prediction: Some determinants of the use of base-rate information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 47:349–60. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar