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Base rates, experience, and the big picture

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Stephen E. Edgell ,
Robert M. Roe  and
Clayton H. Dodd
Stephen E. Edgell
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40292. seedge04@ulkyvx.louisville.edu
Robert M. Roe
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40292. seedge04@ulkyvx.louisville.edu
Clayton H. Dodd
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40292. seedge04@ulkyvx.louisville.edu
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Abstract

The important question is how people process probabilistic information, not whether they process it in accordance with a normative model that we never should have expected them to be capable of following. Experience is not the cure, as widely thought, to problems with utilizing base rate information.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996 , pp. 21
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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