No CrossRef data available.
Article contents
The implications of Koehler's approach for fact finding
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 04 February 2010
Abstract
Koehler's work will assist the effort to understand legal fact finding. It leaves two questions somewhat open: (i) the extent to which empirical research can measure correctness of fact-finding, a function that involves the resolution of normative questions and (ii) the standards judges should use in the absence of the research he advocates.
- Type
- Open Peer Commentary
- Information
- Copyright
- Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996
References
Adair, J. G. (1984) The Hawthorne effect: A reconsideration of the methodological artifact, Journal of Applied Psychology 69:334–45. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adler, J. E. (1994) More on race and crime. Journal of Social Philosophy 25:105–14. [JEA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aitchison, J. & Dunsmore, I. R. (1975) Statistical prediction analysis. Cambridge University Press. [GDK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ajzen, I. (1977) Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35:303–13. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allport, G. W. & Postman, L. J. (1945). The basic psychology of rumor. Transactions of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2(8):61–81. [KJV]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
American Psychiatric Association (1987) Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, 3d ed., rev. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Anderson, N. H. (1986) A cognitive theory of judgment and decision. In: New directions in research on judgment and decision making, ed. Brehmer, B., Jungermann, H., Lourens, P. & Sevon, G.. North-Holland. [NHA]Google Scholar
Anderson, N. H., ed. (1991) Contributions to information integration theory: 1. Cognition. Erlbaum. [NHA]Google Scholar
Ashton, R. H. (1986) Combining the judgments of experts: How many and which ones? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 38:405–14. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ayton, P. (1993) Base rate neglect: An insider view of judgment? Psycoloquy 4(63) base-rate.5.ayton. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Bacchus, F., Kyburg, H. E. & Thalos, M. (1990) Against conditionalization. Synthese 85:475–506. [HEK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balla, J. I., Iansek, R. & Elstein, A. (1985) Bayesian diagnosis in presence of preexisting disease. The Lancet 1:326–29. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1980) The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments. Acta Psychologica 44:211–33. [aJJK, SEE, CCRM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1983) The base rate fallacy controversy. In: Decision making under uncertainty, ed. Scholz, R. W.. Elsevier. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. (1990) Back to base rates. In: Insights in decision making: A tribute to Hillel J. Einhom, ed. Hogarth, R. M.. University of Chicago Press. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Bar-Hillel, M. & Fischhoff, B. (1981) When do base rates affect predictions? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 41:671–80. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bar-tal, D., Cravmann, C. G., Kruglanski, A. W. & Stroebe, W. (1989) Stereotyping and prejudice: Changing conceptions. Springer-Verlag. [DCF]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bargh, J. (1994) The four horsemen of automaticity: Awareness, intention, efficiency, and control in social cognition. In: Handbook of social cognition, vol. 1, ed. Wyer, R. S. Jr, & Srull, T. K.. Hillsdale, NJ: LEA. [PF–B]Google Scholar
Barlow, J. H., Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J., eds. (1992) Tlic adapted mind. Oxford University Press. [FRP]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baumeister, R. F. & Newman, L. S. (1994) Self-regulation of cognitive inference and decision processes. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 20:3–19. [PF–B]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beach, L. R. (1993) Broadening the definition of decision making: The role of prechoice screening of options. Psychological Science 4:215–20. [KMG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beach, L. R. & Mitchell, T. R. (1987) Image theory: Principles, goals, and plans in decision making. Acta Psychologica 66:201–20. [KMG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, P., Solomon, I. & Tomassini, L. (1985) Subjective prior probability distributions and audit risk. Jotimal of Accounting Research 23:37–56. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergus, G. R., Chapman, G. B., Gjerde, C. & Elstein, A. S. (1995) Clinical reasoning about new symptoms despite preexisting disease: Sources of error and order effects. Family Medicine 27:314–20. [RMH, rJJK]Google ScholarPubMed
Beyth-Marom, R. & Arkes, H. R. (1983) Being accurate but not necessarily Bayesian: Comments on Christensen-Szalanski and Beach. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 31:255–57. [SEE]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beyth-Marom, R. & Fischoff, B. (1983) Diagnosticity and pseudodiagnosticity. Journal of Personality and Sodal Psychology 45:1185–95. [aJJK, YK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Biernat, M. (1993) Gender and height: Developmental patterns in knowledge and use of an accurate stereotype. Sex Roles 29:691–713. [aJJK, JK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birnbaum, M. H. (1983) Base rates in Bayesian inference: Signal detection analysis of the cab problem. American Journal of Psychology 96:85–93. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bimbaum, M. H. & Mellers, B. A. (1983) Bayesian inference: Combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 45:792–803. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Borgida, E. & Brekke, N. (1981) The base rate fallacy in attribution and prediction. In: New directions in attribution research, vol. 3, ed. Harvey, J. H., Ickes, W. J. & Kidd, R. F.. Erlbaum. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Borgida, E. & Nisbett, R. (1977) The differential impact of abstract versus concrete information on decisions, journal of Applied Social Psychology 7:258–71. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braine, M. D. S., Connell, J., Freitag, J. & O'Brien, D. P. (1990) Is the base rate fallacy an instance of asserting the consequent? In: Lines of thinking, vol. 1, ed. Gilhooly, K. L., Leane, M. T. C., Logie, R. H. & Erdos, G.. Wiley. [aJJK, YK]Google Scholar
Brekke, N. & Borgida, E. (1988) Expert psychological testimony in rape trials: A social cognitive analysis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 55:372–86. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brilmayer, L. & Komhauser, L. (1978) Review: Quantitative methods and legal decisions. University of Chicago Law Review 46:116–53. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brunswik, E. (1956) Perception and the representative design of psychological experiments, 2d ed.University of California Press. [KJV]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butt, J. (1988) Frequency judgments in an auditing-related task. Jotimal of Accounting Research 26:315–30. [aJJK, LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calder, B. J., Phillips, L. W. & Tybout, A. M. (1981) Designing research for application. Journal of Consumer Research 8:197–207. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caldwell, R. A., Bogat, G. A. & Davidson, W. S. (1988) The assessment of child abuse potential and the prevention of child abuse and neglect: A policy analysis. American Journal of Community Psychology 16:609–24. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cannon, C. K. & Quinsey, V. L. (1995) The likelihood of violent behaviour: Predictions, postdictions, and hindsight bias. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science 27:92–106. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casscells, W., Schoenberger, A. & Graboys, T. B. (1978) Interpretations by physicians of clinical laboratory results. New England journal of Medicine 299:99–1001. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chaiken, S., Liberman, A. & Eagly, A. (1989) Heuristic and systematic information processing within and beyond the persuasion context. In: Unintended tlwught, ed. Uleman, J. & Bargh, J.. Guilford. [PF-B]Google Scholar
Chapman, L. G. & Chapman, J. P. (1959) Atmosphere effect re-exainined. journal of Experimental Psychology 58:220–26. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cheney, D. L. & Seyfarth, R. M. (1990) How monkeys see the world. The University of Chicago Press. [FRP]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Beach, L. R. (1982) Experience and the baserate fallacy. Organization Behavior and Human Performance 29:270–78. [aJJK, SEE]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Beach, L. R. (1983) Believing is not the same as testing: A reply to Beyth-Marom and Arkes. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 31:258–61. [SEE]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Beach, L. R. (1984) The citation bias: Fad and fashion in the judgment and decision literature. American Psychologist 39:75–78. [aJJK, NHA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. & Bushyhead, J. B. (1981) Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting, journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 7:928–35. [arJJK, BAS]Google Scholar
Cobos, P., Lopez, F., Rondo, M., Femandez-Berrocal, P. & Almaraz, J. (1993) Connectionism and probability judgment: Suggestions on biases. In: Proceeding of the Fifteenth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, ed. Poison, M. C.. Hillsdale, New Jersey: LEA. [PF-B]Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1979) On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy? Cognition 7:385–407. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1981a) Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4:317–31. [aJJK, LJC, TC]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1981b) Are there any a priori constraints on the study of rationality? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4:359–67. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1981c) Subjective probability and the paradox of the gatecrasher. Arizona State Law Journal 1981:627–33. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1986a) Twelve questions about Keynes's concept of weight. The British journal for the Philosophy of Science 37:263–78. [LJC]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L. J. (1986b) The role of evidential weight in criminal proof. Boston University Law Review 66:635–49. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Connell, J. (1985) Conditional reasoning processes and limited competence underlie the base rate fallacy in Bayesian probability judgment. Unpublished dissertation, New York University, NY. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Cosmides, L. (1989) The logic of social exchange: Has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Cognition 31:187–276. [FRP]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J. (1989) Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture: 2. Case study: A computational theory of social exchange. Ethology and Sociobiology 10:51–97. [FRP]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J. (in press) Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition. [arJJK, PF-B]Google Scholar
Cronbach, L. J. (1975) Beyond the two disciplines of scientific psychology. American Psychologist 30:116–27. [CK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Darley, J. M. & Latane, B. (1968) Bystander intervention in emergencies: Diffusion of responsibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 8:377–83. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Davidson, D. & Hirtle, S. C. (1990) Effects of nondiscrepant and discrepant information on the use of base rates. American Journal of Psychology 103:343–57. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, J. & Solomon, I. (1989) Experience, expertise, and expert-performance research in public accounting. Journal of Accounting Literature 8:150–64. [LK]Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1983) Is irrationality systematic? Comment on Cohen. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 3:491–92. [RMD]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1988) Rational choice in an uncertain world. Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich. [YK]Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1992a) Comment: Quandary: Correlation coefficients and contexts. In: Life crises and experiences of loss in adulthood, ed. Montada, L., Filipp, S. H. & Lerner, M. J.. Erlbaum. [RMD]Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (1992b) The importance of alternative hypotheses—and hypothetical counterfactuals in general—in social science. The General Psychologist 28(1):2–7. [RMD]Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M. (in press) Experimental demand, clear incentives, both, or neither? [RMD]Google Scholar
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D. & Meehl, P. E. (1989) Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science 243:1668–73. [aJJK, VLQ]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dawes, R. M., Mirels, H. L., Cold, E. & Donahue, E. (1993) Equating inverse probabilities in implicit personality judgments. Psychological Science 4:396–400. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Keyser, L. & Van Herle, A. (1985) Hypothyroidism. In: Current diagnosis, 7th ed., ed. Conn, R. B., Saunders, W. B.. [aJJK]Google Scholar
“Debate” (1991) Debate on statistics and evidentiary theory. Tulane Law Review 65 & 66. [aJJK]Google Scholar
“Decision” (1991) Decision and inference in litigation. Cardozo Law Review 13:253–1079. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Duncan, D. & Snow, W. C. (1987) Base rates in neuropsychology. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice 18:368–70. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duthie, B. & Vincent, K. R. (1986) Diagnostic hit rates of high point codes for the diagnostic inventory of personality and symptoms using random assignment, base rates, and probability scales. Journal of Clinical Psychology 42:612–14. [aJJK]3.0.CO;2-B>CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ebbesen, E. B. & Konecni, V. J. (1980) On the external validity of decisionmaking research: What do we know about decision in the real world? In: Cognitive processes in choice and decision behavior, ed. Wallsten, T. S.. Erlbaum. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Eddy, D. M. (1982) Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities. In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Ktihneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Edgell, S. E. & Hennessey, J. E. (1980) Irrelevant information and utilization of event base rates in nonmetric multiple-cue probability learning. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 26:1–6. [SEE]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edgell, S. E., Nahinsky, I. D., Dodd, C. H. & Barnes, J. M. (submitted) Does experience mitigate base rate neglect? [SEE]Google Scholar
Edwards, W. (1968) Conservatism in human information processing. In: Formal representation of human judgment, ed. Kleinmuntz, B.. Wiley. [NPM]Google Scholar
Edwards, W. (1990) Unfinished tasks: A research agenda for behavioral decision theory. In: Insights in decision making, ed. Hogarth, R. M.. University of Chicago Press. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Einhom, H. (1980) Overconfidence in judgment. In: New directions for methodology of social and behavioral science: Fallible judgment in behavioral research, ed. Shweder, R. & Fiske, D.. Jossey-Bass. [LK]Google Scholar
Einhom, H. J. & Hogarth, R. M. (1981) Behavioral decision theory: Processes of judgment and choice. Annual Review of Psychology 32:53–88. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Estes, W. K., Campbell, J. A., Hatsopoulos, N. & Hurwitz, J. B. (1989) base-rate effects in category learning: A comparison of parallel network and memory storage-retrieval models. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 15:556–71. [BAS]Google ScholarPubMed
Evans, J. St. B. T. & Bradshaw, H. (1986) Estimating sample-size requirements in research design: A study of intuitive statistical judgment. Current Psychological Research and Reviews 5:10–19. [arJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evett, I. W. (1986) A Bayesian approach to the problem of interpreting glass evidence in forensic science casework. Journal of the Forensic Science Society 26:3–18. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fagley, N. S. (1988) Judgmental heuristics: Implications for the decision making of school psychologists. School Psychology Review 17:311–21. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernandez-Berrocal, P., Lopez, F., Segura, S. & Almaraz, J. (1993) Es la cognicion social bayesiana? (Is social cognition Bayesian?) In: Epistemologia y procesos psicosociales basicos, ed. Fernandez, I. & Martinez, M.. Madrid: Eudema. [PF-B]Google Scholar
Fienberg, S. E. (1986) Misunderstanding beyond a reasonable doubt. Boston University Law Review 66:651–56. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Fienberg, S. E. & Schervish, M. J. (1986) The relevance of Bayesian inference for the presentation of evidence and for legal decision making. Boston University Law Review 66:771–98. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Finkelstein, M. & Fairly, W. (1970) A Baysesian approach to identification evidence. Harvard Law Review 83:489–517. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fischoff, B. & Bar-Hillel, M. (1984) Diagnosticity and the base-rate effect. Memory and Cognition 12:402–10. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fischoff, B. & Beyth-Marom, R. (1983) Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective. Psychological Review 90:239–60. [arJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
FischofT, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1979) Subjective sensitivity analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 23:339–59. [aJJK, NHA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fong, G. T., Krantz, D. H. & Nisbett, R. E. (1986) The effects of statistical training on thinking about everyday problems. Cognitive Psychology 18:253–92. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frisch, D. & Clemen, R. T. (1994) Beyond expected utility: Rethinking behavioral decision research. Psychological Bulletin 116:46–54. [KMC]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fuller, M. & McLeod, P. J. (1995) Judgements of control over a contingently responsive animation by students with and without learning disabilities. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science 27(2):171–86. [PJM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Funder, D. C. (1987) Errors and mistakes: Evaluating the accuracy of social judgment1. Psychological Bulletin 101:75–90. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Funder, D. C. (1993) Judgments as data from personality and developmental psychology: Error versus accuracy. In: Studying lives through time: Approaches to personality and development, ed. Funder, D. C., Parke, R., Tomlinson-Keasey, C. & Widaman, K.. American Psychological Association. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Funder, D. C. (1994) Accuracy theory. Unpublished manuscript, University of California, Riverside, CA. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Funder, D. C. (in press a) On the accuracy of personality judgment: A realistic approach. Psychological Review. [DCF]Google Scholar
Funder, D. C. (in press b) Stereotypes, base-rates, and the fundamental attribution mistake: Towards a content-based approach to judgmental accuracy. In: Are stereotypes inaccurate? A neglected issue in intergroup relations, ed. Lee, Y.-T., Jussim, L. & McCauley, C.. American Psychological Association. [DCF]Google Scholar
Gabrenya, W. K. & Arkin, R. M. (1979) Motivation, heuristics, and the psychology of prediction. Motivation and Emotion 3:1–17. [aJJK, FRP]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galotti, K. M. (1989) Approaches to studying formal and everyday reasoning. Psychological Bulletin 105:331–51. [KMG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galotti, K. M. (in press) A longitudinal study of real-life decision making: Choosing a college. Applied Cognitive Psychology. [KMG]Google Scholar
Gavanski, I. & Hui, C. (1992). Natural sample spaces and uncertain belief. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 63:766–80. [aJJK, YK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gibson, J. J. (1967/1982) Autobiography. In: Reasons for realism: Selected essays of James J. Gibson, ed. Reed, E. & Jones, R.. Erlbaum. [KJV]Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (1991) How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond “heuristic and biases.” European Review of Social Psychology 2:83–115. [aJJK, PF-B]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (1994) Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice versa). In: Subjective probability, ed. Wright, G. & Ayton, P.. Wiley. [arJJK, PF-B]Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., Hell, W., & Blank, H. (1988) Presentation and content: the use of base rates us a continuous variable. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 14:513–25. [aJJK, GK]Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. & Hoffrage, U. (in press a) How to make the mind reason the Bayesian way. Psychological Review. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. & Hoffrage, U. (in press b) How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instructions: Frequency formats. Psychological Review. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Cigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U. & Kleinbolting, H. (1991) Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review 98:506–28. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gillespie, R. (1991) Manufacturing knowledge: A history of the Hawthorne experiments. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R. & Tversky, A. (1985) The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology 17:295–313. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ginossar, Z. & Trope, Y. (1980) The effects of base rates and individuating information on judgments about another person. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 16:228–42. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ginossar, Z. & Trope, Y. (1987) Problem solving in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 52:464–73. [arJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gluck, M. A. & Bower, C. (1988) From conditioning to category learning: An adaptive network model. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 117:227–47. [PF-B, BAS]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Goodie, A. S. & Fantino, E. (1995) An experientially derived base-rate error in humans. Psychological Science 6:101–6. [BAS]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gottfredson, D. M., Wilkins, L. T. & Hoffman, P. B. (1978) Guidelines for parole and sentencing: A policy control method. Toronto: Lexington Books. [VLQ]Google Scholar
Graham, J. D. (1989) Communicating about chemical hazards. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 8:307–13. [LRG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grether, D. M. (1980) Bayes rule as a descriptive model: The representativeness heuristic. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 95:537–57. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Griffin, D. & Tversky, A. (1992) The weighing of evidence and the determination of confidence. Cognitive Psychology 24:411–35. [JEA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, D. L. (1981) Cognitive processes in stereotyping and intergroup behavior. Erlbaum. [DCF]Google Scholar
Hamilton, M. M. (1984) An examination of processing factors affecting the availability of consumer testimonial information in memory. Unpublished dissertation, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD. [aJJK, JK]Google Scholar
Hamm, R. M. (1987) Diagnostic inference: People's use of information in incomplete Bayesian word problems [Publication No. 87–11]. Institute of Cognitive Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO. [RMH]Google Scholar
Hamm, R. M. (1993) Explanations for common responses to the blue/green cab probabilistic inference word problem Psychological Reports 72:219–42. [arJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamm, R. M. (1994) Underweighting of base-rate information reflects important difficulties people have with probabilistic inference. Psycoloquy 5(3) baserate. 7.hamm. [RMH, rJJK]Google Scholar
Hamm, R. M. & Zubialde, J. (1995) Physicians' expert cognition and the problem of cognitive biases. Primary Care 22:181–212. [RMH]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hanson, R. D. & Donoghue, J. M. (1977) the power of consensus: Information derived from one's own and others' behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35:294–302. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E. & Quinsey, V. L. (1993) Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior 20:315–35. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hasher, L. & Zacks, R. T. (1984) Automatic processing of fundamental information: The case of frequency of occurrence. American Psychologist 39:1372–88. [BAS]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hastie, R. (1983) Social inference. Annual Review of Psychology 34:511–42. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hilton, J. L. & Fein, S. (1989) The role of diagnosticity in stereotype-based judgments. journal of Personality and Social Psychology 57:201–11. [aJJK, JK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hinsz, V. B., Tindale, R. S., Nagao, D. H., Davis, J. H. & Robertson, B. A. (1988) The influence of the accuracy of individuating information on the use of base rate information in probability judgment. Journal of Experimentnl Social Psychology 24:127–45. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hinsz, V. G. & Davidson, D. J. (1993) Contextual influences of within-suhjects designs on base rate type problems. Paper presented at the meeting of the Judgment and Decision Making Society (11, 1993), Washington, DC. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Hintzman, D. L., Nozawa, C. & Irmscher, M. (1982) Frequency as a nonpropositional attribute of memory. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 21:127–41. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hogarth, R. M. (1986) Beyond discrete biases. In: Judgment and decision making, ed. Arkes, H. R. & Hammond, K. R.. Cambridge University Press. [JEA]Google Scholar
Hogarth, R. M. & Einhom, H. J. (1992) Order effect in belief updating: The belief-adjustment model. Cognitive Psychology 24:1–55. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holland, J. H., Holyoak, K. J., Nisbett, R. E. & Thagard, P. R. (1986) Induction: Processes of inference, learning, and discovery. MIT Press. [YK]Google Scholar
Holyoak, K. J. & Spellman, B. A. (1993) Thinking. Annual Review of Psychology 44:265–315. [aJJK, PF-B, BAS]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iwasa, Y., Higashi, M. & Yamamura, M. (1981) Prey distribution as a factor determining the choice of optimal foraging strategy. American Naturalist 117:710–23. [LRG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jepson, C., Krantz, D. H. & Nisbett, R. E. (1983) Inductive reasoning: Competence or skill? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 3:494–501. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, V. & Kaplan, S. (1991) Experimental evidence on the effects of accountability on auditor judgments. Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory 10(Suppl.):96–107. [LK]Google Scholar
Johnson, W. (1983) “Representativeness” in judgmental predictions of corporate bankruptcy. The Accounting Review 58:78–97. [LK]Google Scholar
Jonakait, R. N. (1983) When blood is their argument: Probabilities in criminal cases, genetic markers, and, once again, Bayes Theorem. University of Illinois Law Review 1983:369–421. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Jones, S. K., Jones, K. T. & Frisch, D. (1995) Biases of probability assessment: A comparison of frequency and single case judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 61:109–22. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, S. R. C. (1992) Was there a Hawthorne effect? American Journal of Sociology 98:451–68. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Joyce, E. & Biddle, G. (1981) Are auditors' judgments sufficiently regressive? Journal of Accounting Research 19:323–49. [aJJK, LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. (1991) Judgment and decision making: A personal view. Psychological Science 2:142–45. [BJG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Lovallo, D. (1993) Bold forecasting and timid decisions: A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Management Science 39:17–31. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1972) Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psyclwlogy 3: 430–54. [arJJK, SEE, DCF]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1973) On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review 80:237–51. [aJJK, DCF, GK, GDK, LK, YK, PJM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (in press) On the reality of cognitive illusion: A reply to Gigerenzer's critique. Psychological Review. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Kassin, S. M. (1979) Base rates and prediction: The role of sample size. Personality and Social Psyclwlogy Bulletin 5:210–13. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaye, D. H. (1979) The paradox of die gatecrasher and other stories. Arizona State University Law Journal 101:101–9. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Kaye, D. H. (1981) Paradoxes, gedanken experiments and the burden of proof: A response to Dr. Cohen's replay. Arizona State Law Journal 1981:635–45. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Kaye, D. H. (1986) Do we need a calculus of weight to understand proof beyond a reasonable doubt? Boston University Law Review 66:657–72. [rJJK]Google Scholar
Kaye, D. H. (1989) The probability of an ultimate issue: The strange case of paternity testing. Iowa Law Review 75:75–109. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Kaye, D. H. & Koehler, J. J. (1991) Can jurors understand probabilistic evidence? Joumal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 154:75–81 [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kida, T. (1984) The effect of causality and specificity on data use. Journal of Accounting Research 22:145–52. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klar, Y. (1990) Linking structures and sensitivity to judgment-relevant information in statistical and logical reasoning tasks. Jou mal of Personality and Social Psychology 59:841–58. [YK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klar, Y. & Liberman, N. (unpublished) Exclusivity, typicality, and hypothesis testing: Do people judge by representativeness? Unpublished manuscript, Tel-Aviv University. [YK]Google Scholar
Klar, Y. & Pessach, R. (unpublished) Necessity, sufficiency and dispositional inference. Unpublished manuscript, Tel-Aviv University. [YK]Google Scholar
Klein, G. A., Orasanu, J., Calderwood, R. & Zsambok, C. E. (1993). Decision making in action: Models and methods. Norwood, NJ: Ablex. [KJV]Google Scholar
Kleiter, G. D. (1992) Bayesian diagnosis in expert systems. Artificial Intelligence 54:1–32. [GDK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kleiter, G. D. (1994a) Natural sampling: Rationality without base rates. In: Contributions to mathematical psychology, psychometrics and methodology, ed. Fischer, C. & Laming, D.. Springer-Verlag. [GDK]Google Scholar
Kleiter, G. D. (1994b) Propagating imprecise probabilities in Bayesian networks. In: Proceedings of the Third Workshop) on Uncertainty Processing in Expert Systems, ed. Kramosil, I., Lauritzen, S., Naeve, P., Scozzafava, R., & Smets, P.. Trest, Czech Republic. [GDK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1991) The probity-policy distinction in the statistical evidence debate. Tulanc Law Review 66:141–50. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1992) Probabilities in the courtroom: An evaluation of the objections and policies. Handbook of psychology and law, ed. Kagehiro, D. K. & Laufer, W. S.. Springer-Verlag. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1993a) The normative status of base rates at trial. Individual and group decision making, ed. Castellan, N. J.. Erlbaum. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1993b) Error and exaggeration in the presentation of DNA evidence. Jurimetrics journal 34:21–39. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1993c) DNA matches and statistics: Important questions, surprising answers. Judicature 76:222–29. [aJJK, CRC]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J. (1993d) The influence of prior beliefs on scientific judgments of evidence quality. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 56:28–55. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koehler, J. J., Chia, A. & Lindsey, S. (1995) The random match probability in DNA evidence: Irrelevant and prejudicial? Jurimetrics Journal 35:201–19. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Koehler, J. J., Gibbs, B. J. & Hogarth, R. M. (1994) Shattering the illusion of control: Multi-shot versus single-shot gambles. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 7:183–91. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koehler, J. J. & Shaviro, D. N. (1990) Veridical verdicts: Increasing verdict accuracy through the use of overtly probabilistic evidence and methods. Cornell Law Review 75:247–79. [aJJK, CRC]Google Scholar
Koonce, L. L. (1993) Base rate usage in accounting. Psycoloquy 4(51) baserate.3.koonce. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Krante, D. H. (1981) Improvements in human reasoning and an error in Cohen's, L. J.. Behavior and Brain Sciences 4:340–41. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krueger, J. & Rothbart, M. (1988) Use of categorical and individuating information in making inferences about personality. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 55:187–95. [aJJK, JK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kruschke, J. K. (1994) The role of base rates in category learning (Research Report No. 115). Indiana University. [PF-B]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuhn, T. (1962/1970) The structure of scientific revolutions, 2d ed.University of Chicago Press. [aJJK, BJC, JK]Google Scholar
Kyburg, H. E. Jr, (1983) Rational belief. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6(2):231–75. [HEK, rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Langer, E. J. (1975) The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32:311–28. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lanning, K. (1987) Some reasons for distinguishing between ‘non-normative response’ and ‘irrational decision.’ The Journal of Psychology 12:109–17. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lehman, D. R., Lempert, R. O. & Nisbett, R. E. (1988) The effects of graduate training on reasoning: formal discipline and thinking about every-day life events. American Psychologist 43:431–42. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leon, M. & Anderson, N. H. (1974) A ratio rule from integration theory applied to inference judgments. Journal of Experimental Psychology 102:27–36. [NHA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, I. (1981) Should Bayesians sometimes neglect base rates? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4:342–43. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Labby, R. (1985) Availability and the generation of hypotheses in analytical review. Journal of Accounting Research 23:648–67. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Libby, R. & Frederick, D. (1990) Experience and the ability to explain audit findings. Journal of Accounting Research 28:348–67. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindeman, S. T., Van Den Brink, W. P. & Hoogstraten, J. (1988) Effect of feedback on base-rate utilization. Perceptual and Motor Skilk 67:343–50. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LindJey, D. V. (1982) Scoring rules and the inevitability of probability. International Statistical Review 50:1–26. [LRG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Locksley, A., Borgida, E., Brekke, N. & Hepburn, C. (1980) Sex stereotypes and social judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39:821–31. [aJJK, JK, CM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Locksley, A., Hepburn, C. & Ortiz, V. (1982) Social stereotypes and judgments of individuals: An instance of the base-rate fallacy. Journal of Experimental ocial Psychology 18:23–42. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Lopes, L. L. (1983) Normative theories of rationality: Occam's razor, Procrustes'bed? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6:255–56. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lopes, L. L. (1991) The rhetoric of irrationality. Theory and Psychology 1:65.82. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lynch, J. C. & Ofir, C. (1989) Effects of cue consistency and value on base-rate utilization. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 56:170–81. [aJJK, NPM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyon, D. & Slovic, P. (1976) Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation. Ada Psychologica 40:287–98. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Macchi, L. (1994) On the communication and comprehension of probabilistic information: Commentary on Koehler on base-rate. Psycoloquy 5(11) baserate. 11.macchi. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Macchi, L. (1995) Pragmatic aspects of the base-rate fallacy. Quarterly Journal of xperimental Psychology 48A(1):188–207. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Manis, M., Dovalina, I., Avis, N. E. & Cardoze, S. (1980) Base rates can affect individual predictions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 38:231–48. [aJJK, SEE, BAS]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manis, M. (1981) Reply to Bar-Hillel and Fischoff1. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 41:681–83. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Margolis, H. (1987) Patterns, thinking, and cognition: A theory of judgment. University of Chicago Press. [aJJK, HM]Google Scholar
Margolis, H. (1996) Dealing with risk: Why the public and the exjierts disagree. University of Chicago Press. [HM]Google Scholar
Maynard Smith, J. (1982) Evolution and the theory of games. Cambridge University Press. [LRG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCauley, C. (1994) Stereotypes as base rate predictions: Commentary on Koehler on base-rate. Psycoloquy 5(5) base-rate.8.mccauley. [CM]Google Scholar
McCauley, C., Stitt, C. L. & Segal, M. (1980). Stereotyping: From prejudice to prediction. Psychological Bulletin 87:195–208. [CM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDaniel, L. (1990) The effects of time pressure and audit program structure on audit performance1. Journal of Accounting Research 28:267–87. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGuire, T. W. & Melone, N. P. (1992) Conservatism in integrating information: Implications for international management. In: Business behavior and information, ed. Ijiri, Y. & Nakano, I.. Carnegie Mellon University Press. [NPM]Google Scholar
McKenzie, C. R. M. (1994a) The accuracy of intuitive judgment strategies: Covariation assessment and Bayesian inference. Cognitive Psychology 26:209–39. [arJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKenzie, C. R. M. (1994b) Base rates versus prior beliefs in Bayesian inference. Psycoloquy 5(1) base-rate.6.mckenzie. [rJJK]Google Scholar
McLeod, P. J. (1994) Age differences in judgements of control, poster presented at the thirteenth biennial meetings of the International Society for the Study of Behavioural Development, Amsterdam. [PJM]Google Scholar
McLeod, P. J. & Spence, A. B. (in press) Contiception: A program to study the effects of contingency parameters on judgements of control. Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, ir Computers. [PJM]Google Scholar
Medin, D. L. & Bettger, J. G. (1991) Sensitivity to changes in base-rate information. American Journal of Psychology 104:311–32. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Medin, D. L. & Edelson, S. M. (1988) Problem structure and the use of baserate information from experience. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 117:68–85. [aJJK, SEE, BAS]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Meehl, P. E. (1954) Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and review of the literature. University of Minnesota Press. [aJJK, HEK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meehl, P. E. (1977) Why I do not attend case conferences. In: Psychodiagnosis: Seleded papers, ed. Meehl, P. E. & Norton, P. E.. [RMD]Google Scholar
Meehl, P. E. (1978) Theoretical risks and tabular asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the slow progress of soft psychology, journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 46:806–34. [GK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meehl, P. E. & Rosen, A. (1955) Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns, or cutting scores. Psychological Bulletin 52:194–216. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Melone, N. P., McGuire, T. W., Blazer, M., Erdner, D., Cerwing, T., McGuire, M. J. & Roy, M. C. (1992) Global conservatism in probability judgments: The base-rate fallacy revisited (WP 1992–34). Unpublished manuscript, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. [NPM]Google Scholar
Melone, N. P., McGuire, T. W., Roy, M. C., Erdner, D. & McGuire, M. J. (1989) Conservatism in probability judgments: A re-examination and reinterpretation of the base rate fallacy (WP 89–90–61). Unpublished manuscript, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. [NPM]Google Scholar
Moray, N. (1959) Attention in dichotic listening: Affective cues and the influence of instructions. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 11:56–60. [KJV]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Navon, D. (1978) The importance of being conservative: Some reflections on human Bayesian behavior. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 31:33–48. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nelson, T. E., Biemat, M. & Manis, M. (1990) Everyday base rates (sex stereotypes): Potent and resilient. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 59:664–75. [aJJK, JK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nesson, C. (1985) The evidence or the event? On judicial proof and the acceptability of verdicts. Harvard Law Review 98:1357–1392. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niiniluoto, I. (1981) L. J. Cohen versus Bayesianism. Behavioral and Brain ciences 4:349. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nisbett, R. E. & Borgida, E. (1975) Attribution and the psychology of prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32:932–43. [arJJK, PDW]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., Borgida, E., Crandall, R. & Reed, H. (1982) Popular induction: Information is not necessarily informative. Judgments under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E., Fong, G. T., Lehman, D. R. & Cheng, P. W. (1987) Teaching reasoning. Science 238:625–31. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Nisbett, R. E., Krantz, D. H., Jepson, C. & Kunda, Z. (1983) The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning. Psychological Review 90:339–63. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nisbett, R. E. & Ross, L. (1980) Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Prentice-Hall. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Nisbett, R. E. & Schachter, S. (1966) Cognitive manipulation of pain. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 2:227–36. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ofir, C. (1988) Pseudodiagnosticity in judgment under uncertainty. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 42:343–63. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R. & Johnson, E. J. (1992) Behavioral decision research: A constructive processing perspective. Annual Review of sychology 43:87–131. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peecher, M. & Kleinmuntz, D. (1991) Experimental evidence on the effects of accountability on auditor judgments. Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory 10:108–13. [LK]Google Scholar
Peter, J. P. & Olson, J. C. (1983) Is science marketing? Journal of Marketing 47:111–25. [BJG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peterson, C. R. & Beach, L. R. (1967) Man as intuitive statistician. Psychological Bulletin 68:29–46. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, L. D. & Edwards, W. (1966). Conservatism in simple probability inference tasks. Journal of Experimental Psychology 72:346–57. [NPM]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pimm, S. L. & Redfeam, A. (1988). The variability of animal populations. Nature 268:329–31. [LRG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pollard, P. & Evans, J. St. B. T. (1983) The role of ‘representativeness’ in statistical inference: A critical appraisal. In: Thinking and reasoning: Psychological approaches, ed. Evans, J. St. B. T.. Routledge/Kegan Paul. [arJJK]Google Scholar
Poole, D. A., Lindsay, D. S., Memon, A. & Bull, R. (in press) Psychotherapy and the recovery of memories of childhood sexual abuse: U. S. and British practitioners' opinions, practices, and experiences. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. [RMD]Google Scholar
Powell, J. L. & Heckman, T. G. (1990) The effects of five factors on the differential use of base-rate and individuating information. Unpublished manuscript, University of Hartford. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Prete, F. R. (1995) Designing behavior: A case study. Perspectives in Ethology 11:255–77. [FRP]Google Scholar
“Probability” (1986) Probability and the inference in the law of evidence. Boston University Law Review 66[Symposium], [aJJK]Google Scholar
Quinsey, V. L. (1981) The long term management of the mentally disordered offender. In: Mental disorder and criminal responsibility, ed. Hucker, S. J., Webster, C. D. & Ben-Aron, M.. Toronto: Butterworths. [VLQ]Google Scholar
Quinsey, V. L. & Ambtman, R. (1979) Variables affecting psychiatrists' and teachers' assessments of the dangerousness of mentally ill offenders. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 47:353–62. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Quinsey, V. L. & Cyr, M. (1986) Perceived dangerousness and treatability of offenders: The effects of internal versus external attributions of crime causality. Journal of Interpersonal Violence 1:458—71. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quinsey, V. L. & Maguire, A. (1986) Maximum security psychiatric patients: Actuarial and clinical prediction of dangerousness. Journal of Interpersonal Violence 1:143—71. [VLQ]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rasinski, K. A., Crocker, J. & Hastie, R. (1985) Another look at sex stereotypes and social judgments: An analysis of die social percerver's use of subjective probabilities. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 49:317–26. [aJJK, JK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reber, A. S. (1993) The cognitive unconscious: An evolutionary perspective. Consciousness and Cognition 1:93–133. [BAS]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reichenback, H. (1949) The theory of probability. University of California Press. [HEK]Google Scholar
Rice, M. E. & Harris, G. T. (in press) Violent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. [VLQ]Google Scholar
Saks, S. L. & Fishback, C. L. (1994) Sensitivity in a Bayesian judgment task: Can the inputs support the process? Unpublished manuscript, University of South Florida. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Schum, D. A. & Martin, A. W. (1982) Formal and empirical research on cascaded inference in jurisprudence. Law and Society Review 17:105–51. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwarz, N., Strack, F., Hiltin, D. & Naderer, G. (1991) Base rates, representativeness, and the logic of conversation: The contextual relevance of ‘irrelevant’ inforamtion. Social Cognition 9:67–83. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Seger, C. A. (1994) Implicit learning. Psychological Bulletin 115:163–96. [BAS]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Seligman, M. E. P. (1970) On the generality of the laws of learning. Psychological Review 17:406–18. [FRP]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shanks, D. R. (1991) Categorization by a connectionist network. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 117:227–47. [PF-B]Google Scholar
Shanks, D. R. (1992) Connectionist accounts of the inverse base-rate effect in categorization. Connection Science 4:3–18. [PF-B]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shanks, D. R. & John, M. F. (1994) Characteristics of dissociable human learning systems. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17:367–447. [BAS]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shaviro, D. (1989) Statistical-probability evidence and the appearance of justice. Harvard Law Review 103:530–54. [aJJK, CRC]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Uchtenstein, S. (1977) Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology 28:1–39. [NHA]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1971) Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment. Organization Behavior and Human Performance 6:649–743. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, J. & Kida, T. (1991) Heuristics and biases: Expertise and task realism in auditing. Psychological Bulletin 3:472–89. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snow, W. G. (1985) Does the base rate exist? Journal of Clinical Neuropsychology 7:621. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Spellman, B. A. (1993) Implicit learning of base rates. Psycoloquy 4(61) baserate. 4.spellman. [aJJK, BAS]Google Scholar
Stephens, D. W. & Krebs, J. R. (1986) Foraging theory. Princeton University Press. [LRG]Google Scholar
Sullivan, R. C. & Delaney, H. R. (1982) Criminal investigations: A decision making process. Journal of Police Science and Administration 10:335–43. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Swieringa, R. & Gibbins, M., Larsson, L. & Sweeney, J. (1976) Experiments in the heuristics of human information processing. Journal of Accounting 14:159–87. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swim, J. K. (1994) Perceived versus meta-analytic effect sizes: An assessment of the accuracy of gender stereotypes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 66:21–36. [DCF]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1992a) The impact of accountability on judgment and choice: Toward a social contingency model. In: Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, ed. Zanna, M. P.. Academic Press. [PF-B, CJT]Google Scholar
Tetlock, P. E. (1992b) Is it a bad idea to study good judgment? Political Psychology 13:429–34. [CJT]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Todd, J. T. & Morris, E. K. (1992) Case histories in the great power of steady misrepresentation. American Psychologist 47:1441–53. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Tomassini, L., Solomon, I., Romney, M. & Krogstad, J. (1982) Calibration of auditors' probabilistic judgments: Some empirical evidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 30:391–406. [LK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tribe, L. H. (1971) Trial by mathematics: Precision and ritual in the legal process. Harvard Law Review 84:1329–93. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. & Gilovich, T. (1989) The cold facts about the ‘hand hot’ in basketball. Chance: New Directions for Statistics and Computing 2:16–21. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1971) Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin 76:105–10. [aJJK, SEE]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. (1980) Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty. In: Progress in social psychology1, ed. Fishbein, M.. Erlbaum. [aJJK, PF-B]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. (1981) The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice1. Science 211:453–58. [BJG]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. (1982a) Evidential impact of base rates. In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK, BAS]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. (1982b) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A.. Cambridge University Press. [LRG]Google Scholar
Tversky, A. (1983) Extensional vs. intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment1. Psychological Review 91:293–315. [rJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ungar, S. & Shev'er, A. (1989) ‘Say it ain't so, Ben’: Attributions for a fallen hero. Social Psychology Quarterly 52:207–12. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vicente, K. J. & Brewer, W. F. (1993). Reconstructive remembering of the scientific literature. Cognition 46:101–28. [KJV]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
VonWinterfeldt, D. & Edwards, W. (1986) Decision analysis and behavioral research. Cambridge University Press. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Wagenaar, W. A. (1988) The proper seat: A Bayesian discussion of the position of expert witnesses. Law and Human Behavior 12:499–510. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wason, P. C. (1983) Realism and rationality in the selection task. In: Thinking and reasoning: Psychological approaches, ed. Evans, J. St. B. T.. Routledge/Kegan Paul. [FRP]Google Scholar
Wasserman, E. A. (1990) Detecting response-outcome relations: Toward an understanding of the causal texture of the environment. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation 26:26–82. [PJM]Google Scholar
Watson, J. B. & Rayner, R. (1920) Conditioned emotional reactions1. Journal of Experimental Psychology 3:1–15. [KJV]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Watson, J. S. (1979) Perception of contingency as a determinant of social responsiveness. In: The origins of social responsiveness, ed. Thoman, E. B.. Erlbaum. [PJM]Google Scholar
Weber, E. U., Bockenholt, U., Hilton, D. J. & Wallace, B. (1993) Determinants of diagnostic hypothesis generation: Effects of information, base rates and experience. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 191:1151–64. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Webster, C. D., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Cormier, C. & Quinsey, V. L. (1994) The violence prediction scheme: Assessing dangerousness in high risk men. Centre of Criminology, University of Toronto. [VLQ]Google Scholar
Wells, C. L. (1992) Naked statistical evidence of liability: Is subjective probability enough? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 62:739–52. [PDW]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wells, G. L. & Harvey, J. H. (1977) Do people use consensus information in making causal attributions? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35:279–93. [aJJK, JK, PDW]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wells, G. L. (1978) Naive attributors' attributions and predictions: What is informative and when is an effect an effect? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 36:483–90. [aJJK, GK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wells, G. L. & Windschitl, P. D. (1994) When is the use of base-rate information not a logical imperative? Commentary on Koehler on base-rate. Psycoloquy 5(33) base-rate.14.wells-wischitl. [aJJK]Google Scholar
Wiggins, J. S. (1973) Personality and prediction: Principles of personality assessment. Addison-Wesley. [VLQ]Google Scholar
Willis, W. G. (1984) Reanalysis of an actuarial approach to neuropsychological diagnosis in consideration of base rates. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 52:567–67. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wolfe, C. R. (1995) Information seeking on Bayesian conditioned probability problems: A fuzzy-trace theory account. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 8:85–108. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wyer, R. S. Jr, & Srull, T. K. (1994) Handbook of social cognition, vol. 1. Hillsdale, New Jersey: LEA. [PF-B]Google Scholar
Zuckerman, A. A. S. (1986) Law, fact or justice? Boston University Law Beview 66:487–508. [CRC]Google Scholar
Zukier, H. & Pepitone, A. (1984) Social roles and strategies in prediction: Some determinants of the use of base-rate information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 47:349–60. [aJJK]CrossRefGoogle Scholar